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March 13-14 Storm

Violentweatherfan

By Violentweatherfan,
in Philadelphia Region

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Newman

Newman

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, zenmsav6810 said:

How bad was that though a pro getting lucy'd by the nam. Beings that their might be a closed secondary this might play out as a weaker version of a miller A. 

Yeah this storm isn't a traditional Miller A or Miller B. One of my favorite books I have is the Northeast Snowstorms book by Kocin and Uccellini. You can compare upper air configurations and what not to many famous storms. I've been doing that with this storm and its awesome.

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zenmsav6810

zenmsav6810

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Newman said:

Yeah this storm isn't a traditional Miller A or Miller B. One of my favorite books I have is the Northeast Snowstorms book by Kocin and Uccellini. You can compare upper air configurations and what not to many famous storms. I've been doing that with this storm and its awesome.

What us the isbn ? I'll either purchase or get it from Penn states interlibrary loan.

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Violentweatherfan

Violentweatherfan

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4 minutes ago, Newman said:

Yeah this storm isn't a traditional Miller A or Miller B. One of my favorite books I have is the Northeast Snowstorms book by Kocin and Uccellini. You can compare upper air configurations and what not to many famous storms. I've been doing that with this storm and its awesome.

I can't remember a storm similar to this where there is a phase between the northern branch and southern branch, especially so south.  We've had nothing but Miller B's for the past 5/6 years maybe?

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Newman

Newman

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Posted

I'm not sure of the ISBN sorry. But I got my books off of amazon as used. Its a two volume set so make sure to buy both. I'm pretty sure most of the time it will come with both books anyway. It's definitely worth investing into if you are a simple weenie or a hardcore meteorologist.

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Ralph Wiggum

Ralph Wiggum

Posted
Posted

What happened in here today? What the serious HELL happened in here? I go to work and things are status quo. Looking good for a solid warning criteria event for a large portion of the subforum. Probably the largest storm of the year for many here. Then I come home and see almost nothing but doom and gloom. Wth? Euro isn't king anymore. That model was dethroned after it's last upgrade. Y'all think because the op Euro had a blip means this is a "garden variety SECS"? And wth is that anyway. What is a garden variety significant storm?

Look, if anything, there has been divergence today with guidance. This ALWAYS happens when the energy hits the West Coast. The models will be steady for days and as soon as the energy crashes ashore, they diverge in solutions. It happens all the time. Then they settle down a suite or two later.

We have the biggest threat since January 2016 staring us in the face guys. Who's the say those upper teen totals wont re-emerge? Regardless, nobody should have set their expectations to that level. That type of thinking and commitment is like a kamikaze mission. Always set realistic expectations and hope for the best.

Anyway, we have the NAM still way West, we have the Euro op way Easy, we have the GFS offshore but still a healthy QPF shield on the West side and a really good hit for many. The CMC bullseye's us and crushes us. Ens means totals are still crazy. Yet people are hanging their heads?? We are in mid-March. The potential sitting in front of us is amazing whether it reaches max potential or is a "garden variety SECS". We don't see WSW criteria snowstorms in March very often with the dynamics that this one will produce and the potential totals being tossed around. Again, keep expectations low, take what you can get. If you are pissy because you might "only" get 9" of snow in mid-March and not 18" then your living with blinders on. Those March events are rare for a reason. And there is STILL the potential that this one can overproduce. But whatever happens, we are under a WSW for a considerable amount of snow this week. I don't see the doom and gloom.

There is plenty of support for a big hit still and with the NAM so far West and the Euro so far East tells me this is far from settled and WONT be settled until some time Monday. We still have 48 hours to go and this is a rather dynamic situation developing. Too many variables yet EVERY solution from the ops gives us considerable snowfall....the best of the season for most even with the lowest model output right now.

So to say this is over and hang your head is absurd.....irresponsible quite frankly. This could trend better or could trend worse....we dont know right now but I personally am VERY optimistic andlike where we are sitting at this point. Hell, if the Euro came in like the NAM and was West there would be doom and gloom. There is no winning unless it's a direct hit every run it seems. Meteorology doesn't work that way. Too many moving parts still to write this off. Let it play out.....keep expectations realistic given the time of the year, your location, etc. Don't assume a model giving 24" is going to be right and also don't assume a model blip to the East will be the final answer either. I see too many red flags with that Euro OP to honestly take it verbatim.

Hang in there guys.....long way to go here. It aint over til it's over!

 

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Newman

Newman

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Posted
2 minutes ago, Violentweatherfan said:

I can't remember a storm similar to this where there is a phase between the northern branch and southern branch, especially so south.  We've had nothing but Miller B's for the past 5/6 years maybe?

Seriously. Miller B's have been the new norm and they always screw us, especially January 2015 comes to mind. God, that storm....

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Violentweatherfan

Violentweatherfan

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2 minutes ago, Newman said:

Seriously. Miller B's have been the new norm and they always screw us, especially January 2015 comes to mind. God, that storm....

Just a heads up, go to the NYC forum a poster with the user name JetsPens is "killing it" with copious amounts of great posts a must read

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Birds~69

Birds~69

Posted
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12 minutes ago, Violentweatherfan said:

Just a heads up, go to the NYC forum a poster with the user name JetsPens is "killing it" with copious amounts of great posts a must read

Lol...Don't get me started!

Things are cool...it's early mid March!  Damnit-it! Not Dec/Jan/Feb....everyone relax

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anthonyweather

anthonyweather

Posted
Posted
Ok, so I forgot Allentown PA was that far down in Lehigh County, but if you look at this map, it shows that most of Lehigh county is 3-6 (north to south respectively) while the WxBell map takes 10-12 almost to Scranton.

 

gfs_asnow_neus_13.png&key=b453741ad079815aa359bfd1bb840617511da260732a3d506e091495408908b4




I would assume because need to go like 18 hours in the future to get the actual total

Sent from my LG-H900 using Tapatalk

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KamuSnow

KamuSnow

Posted
Posted
27 minutes ago, snowwors2 said:

Hey folks… Just checked in here to see what was up on this site and I got to say as hard as it is let's hold off on the negativism until we get a bit closer at which point rather than posting negative comments I'll check out!

Here are my thoughts from a few minutes ago outside... while it would be nice to have more clarity about Monday night and Tuesday, at the moment I'm in appreciation mode and I like we're at. It feels (and looks) like deep winter outside tonight - nice cold air mass. And the ingredients are there for something interesting in 2 days.
Being essentially in the middle of the 2 extremes model-wise (NAM vs. Euro) is not a bad place to be.
Tomorrow should clarify things, then Monday we'll get to watch things develop. Fun times even with the angst :-).

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Violentweatherfan

Violentweatherfan

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10 minutes ago, Birds~69 said:

Lol...Don't get me started!

Things are cool...it's early mid March!  Damnit-it! Not Dec/Jan/Feb....everyone relax

Better save those posts over there or bookmark that thread, the feedback(pun) has been great.

It'll be so much easier to deal with spotting busts sooner lol

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shemATC

shemATC

Posted
Posted
17 minutes ago, anthonyweather said:

 

 


I would assume because need to go like 18 hours in the future to get the actual total

Sent from my LG-H900 using Tapatalk
 

 

 

I was posting from my phone.  Thought I had clicked through and accumulations had stopped.  Just a full cache on my phone.  Might need to stop obsessively refreshing model runs....

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Ralph Wiggum

Ralph Wiggum

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57-60 hrs NAM does the same right hook as the other guys I don't like seeing that

 


NAM 4k and NAM 3k are sweet. crushers. Nudge East near our latitude keeping the snow going and getting parts of the region under the deform band. Good run imo. Not perfect and yet another solution. Steady as she goes.
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snowwors2

snowwors2

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, snowwors2 said:

Hey folks… Just checked in here to see what was up on this site and I got to say as hard as it is let's hold off on the negativism until we get a bit closer at which point rather than posting negative comments I'll check out!

 

53 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

What happened in here today? What the serious HELL happened in here? I go to work and things are status quo. Looking good for a solid warning criteria event for a large portion of the subforum. Probably the largest storm of the year for many here. Then I come home and see almost nothing but doom and gloom. Wth? Euro isn't king anymore. That model was dethroned after it's last upgrade. Y'all think because the op Euro had a blip means this is a "garden variety SECS"? And wth is that anyway. What is a garden variety significant storm?

Look, if anything, there has been divergence today with guidance. This ALWAYS happens when the energy hits the West Coast. The models will be steady for days and as soon as the energy crashes ashore, they diverge in solutions. It happens all the time. Then they settle down a suite or two later.

We have the biggest threat since January 2016 staring us in the face guys. Who's the say those upper teen totals wont re-emerge? Regardless, nobody should have set their expectations to that level. That type of thinking and commitment is like a kamikaze mission. Always set realistic expectations and hope for the best.

Anyway, we have the NAM still way West, we have the Euro op way Easy, we have the GFS offshore but still a healthy QPF shield on the West side and a really good hit for many. The CMC bullseye's us and crushes us. Ens means totals are still crazy. Yet people are hanging their heads?? We are in mid-March. The potential sitting in front of us is amazing whether it reaches max potential or is a "garden variety SECS". We don't see WSW criteria snowstorms in March very often with the dynamics that this one will produce and the potential totals being tossed around. Again, keep expectations low, take what you can get. If you are pissy because you might "only" get 9" of snow in mid-March and not 18" then your living with blinders on. Those March events are rare for a reason. And there is STILL the potential that this one can overproduce. But whatever happens, we are under a WSW for a considerable amount of snow this week. I don't see the doom and gloom.

There is plenty of support for a big hit still and with the NAM so far West and the Euro so far East tells me this is far from settled and WONT be settled until some time Monday. We still have 48 hours to go and this is a rather dynamic situation developing. Too many variables yet EVERY solution from the ops gives us considerable snowfall....the best of the season for most even with the lowest model output right now.

So to say this is over and hang your head is absurd.....irresponsible quite frankly. This could trend better or could trend worse....we dont know right now but I personally am VERY optimistic andlike where we are sitting at this point. Hell, if the Euro came in like the NAM and was West there would be doom and gloom. There is no winning unless it's a direct hit every run it seems. Meteorology doesn't work that way. Too many moving parts still to write this off. Let it play out.....keep expectations realistic given the time of the year, your location, etc. Don't assume a model giving 24" is going to be right and also don't assume a model blip to the East will be the final answer either. I see too many red flags with that Euro OP to honestly take it verbatim.

Hang in there guys.....long way to go here. It aint over til it's over!

 

Ralph's (excellent) comments were the "unabridged" version of mine from above!

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snowwors2

snowwors2

Posted
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34 minutes ago, KamuSnow said:

Here are my thoughts from a few minutes ago outside... while it would be nice to have more clarity about Monday night and Tuesday, at the moment I'm in appreciation mode and I like we're at. It feels (and looks) like deep winter outside tonight - nice cold air mass. And the ingredients are there for something interesting in 2 days.
Being essentially in the middle of the 2 extremes model-wise (NAM vs. Euro) is not a bad place to be.
Tomorrow should clarify things, then Monday we'll get to watch things develop. Fun times even with the angst :-).

YES!!

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