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March 13-14 Storm


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Philly gets 12"+ on the conservative Eurowx map 

 


Yeah, wxbell euro snow map completely different than SV euro output. Thats where I got the 4" total from above. I wonder if wxbell doesnt account for sleet? And maybe SV is showing lots of pingers? Definitely a sneaky warm layer in there on the Euro that even makes it to NW Bucks Co . We toss?
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1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said:


Yeah, wxbell euro snow map completely different than SV euro output. Thats where I got the 4" total from above. I wonder if wxbell doesnt account for sleet? And maybe SV is showing lots of pingers? Definitely a sneaky warm layer in there on the Euro that even makes it to NW Bucks Co . We toss?

We toss and wait

 

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I don't know why everyone's freaking out.  The Euro shows between 12" and 18" depending on the map you look at for PHL.  The 0 line at 850 stays SE of PHL. Worry if you're near the shore but every model I've seen at 0z seems to give the PHL area at least 12" with more NW.

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On a plus note....the old saying you gotta smell the rain to hit the jackpot or however it goes is true. Just NW of that line will get crushed hard so teetering that line nearby isnt terrible I suppose. I'll take my chances, double down, and let it ride for a chance to jackpot. Especially with this type of storm.


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we are definitely mixing with the trend west. not really a question at this point. I don't think anyone west of the river goes to rain though. sleet makes it to upper Bucks though imo and will cut down on overall totals. my bust for this event is anything under 6 inches which would take a lot of sleet to do but I really don't see the temp getting above 32 in the height of the storm for non coastal areas. I'm thinking 6 to 10 should be safe for extreme se pa.  lollipops of a foot. I don't think it's if we changeover but when, should still be all snow through the heaviest bands.

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1 minute ago, The Iceman said:

we are definitely mixing with the trend west. not really a question at this point. I don't think anyone west of the river goes to rain though. sleet makes it to upper Bucks though imo and will cut down on overall totals. my bust for this event is anything under 6 inches which would take a lot of sleet to do but I really don't see the temp getting above 32 in the height of the storm for non coastal areas. I'm thinking 6 to 10 should be safe for extreme se pa.  lollipops of a foot. I don't think it's if we changeover but when, should still be all snow through the heaviest bands.

6 to 10 even with all the sleet?

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5 minutes ago, PaEasternWX said:

I am thinking SEPA gets 2-4 inches then a ton of sleet. At this point my goal is just that we don’t change to rain. I know mixing will most definitely happen.

That would certainly be disappointing and likely a worst case scenario but yeah, if the center rides the western edge of guidance it's a nice thump (hopefully more than 2-4") with mix at the height followed by dry slot/snow showers.  Cross your fingers for a nudge east at 12z and a heavy WAA thump overnight

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just saw our wsw was upped to 18 to 24 overnight too LOL nws better change that asap or they are going to majorly bust here. won't even be close.

14 minutes ago, PaEasternWX said:

6 to 10 even with all the sleet?

heaviest precip should still be mostly snow. think we all get at least that until we go to taint. my Weather underground forecast sounds perfect to me. 5 to 8 inches tonight then 1 to 3 inches tomorrow.

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just saw our wsw was upped to 18 to 24 overnight too LOL nws better change that asap or they are going to majorly bust here. won't even be close.

heaviest precip should still be mostly snow. think we all get at least that until we go to taint. my Weather underground forecast sounds perfect to me. 5 to 8 inches tonight then 1 to 3 inches tomorrow.


I think mixing too but not that far NW as you suggest. We are all entitled to our opinions and our own calls but to start pumping your chest and declaring victory while calling the pros forecast major busts before the storm has even formed yet is ridiculous and part of the reason those guys at the nws hardly post here any more. You did the same thing earlier this season and were way off with your call. You didnt learn your lesson? I can hold you to 6-10" in Upper Bucks then?
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NAM likely a victim of its own hi resolution (same with rgem?) in terms of track and exact slp location. Overamplifying the big storm and causing a slp track left of the global models. If anything, latest guidance has upped qpf for our region to 1.25-2.0" LE on avg. The big boys (GFS/Euro/GGEM somewhat) have remained VERY consistent irt track of slp over past 3 runs or so whereas the higher res stuff seems to be bouncing around quite a bit still. Im more inclined to side with a blend of the GFS/Euro/GGEM which track right of the higher resolution data. With that said, even the RGEM and 4k/3k NAMs are showing better thermal ideas which is precisely the tools we should be using this data for. The heavier qpf they are modeling mixes down during the heaviest rates and flips questionable areas over dynamically to heavy snow because the rates are so extreme. Those questionable areas on the higher res stuff just happens to be NW of the globals again due to the hi res data being victim of its own resolution. The NAM and RGEM just as an example should probably look about 30 or so miles SE with slp center more in line with other guidance which would put the mix line closer to the Delaware River which historically and climatologically makes much more sense based on past experience and history with these types of systems. This isnt to say the GFS or Euro should be hugged like there is no tomorrow but my point is they seem to have a better handle on the track and havent bounced around that much aside from some minor wobbles run to run. So the GFS totals of 14-20" and the Euro totals of 18-28" arent that far fetched imo and this supports what the NWS is depicting. Not speaking for them but I would venture to guess our thoughts are somewhat similar. Im concerned my 7-14" call for Central Bucks will be too conservative in the end but Im riding it. Good luck everyone!



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43 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:


I think mixing too but not that far NW as you suggest. We are all entitled to our opinions and our own calls but to start pumping your chest and declaring victory while calling the pros forecast major busts before the storm has even formed yet is ridiculous and part of the reason those guys at the nws hardly post here any more. You did the same thing earlier this season and were way off with your call. You didnt learn your lesson? I can hold you to 6-10" in Upper Bucks then?

no I didn't ralph. I said we'd get less than an inch back in December, and that it'd change over way earlier than expected and what do you know, it was well less than an inch and it changed over well earlier than expected so don't know what you're talking about man. it's very clear based on guidance than 18 to 24 is out to lunch here. 18 will be the absolute max lollipop in probably far upper bucks.

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not to mention climatologically almost every big storm in extreme se pa has a period of sleet. pd 2 was like 20 degrees the entire storm and still had a period of sleet plus it's March. climo favors a changeover in extreme se pa much much more than an all snow solution which will prevent 18 to 24.

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not to mention climatologically almost every big storm in extreme se pa has a period of sleet. pd 2 was like 20 degrees the entire storm and still had a period of sleet plus it's March. climo favors a changeover in extreme se pa much much more than an all snow solution which will prevent 18 to 24.

 

 

I guess but the geographically favored areas are in line for a walloping with 18-24" not far fetched at all. Those areas are NW of I95 to 10 miles yes, but not mixing into Upper Bucks as you stated. That isnt the traditional line in these setups. Those areas traditionally remain all snow in these situations. PD2 is a bad example.....totally different situation and not your classic storm track.

 

 

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Furthermore, if this were falling between 11am-3pm I would agree. But this is a mid January type airmass with bulk of heaviest falling 3am-10am give or take. Not that it really has much to do with what is falling from the clouds but it certainly helps with dynamic cooling and mixing down. Heights are plenty low, again mid January like stuff sub 534 material. Im not sure this is our typical situation. Quite an anomaly if you ask me.




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