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3/13- 3/14 Winter Storm Threat


Buddy1987

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22 minutes ago, nomanslandva said:

Anyone have soundings for the euro?  I know the clown maps from the Euro that I have seen basically blanked our area outside of elevation.  IDK if it is simply an above 32 surface or something in the mid levels.   Looked at the text sounding from the 18z NAM and at least half of the .86 should be snow... unless the  warm nose over performs:-|  My guess is blacksburg is seeing something in the Euro.  

They did mention the SREF in an earlier discussion.  Looking at the plum viewer, the snow ptype does not overcome rain until very late so it could be that too.  That did go a little better looking at 15z but not much.  We are just really close here bot at 2m and 850ish.

This site doesn't have soundings, but it has maps for the Euro and you can toggle thru different levels (800mb / 850mb) to see the temperatures.  Click on the map itself to get a specific temperature readout as opposed to viewing the map contours.  On this link below, it is set on 800mb temperatures and the locale selected on the map is in SW VA

https://www.windytv.com/?800h,temp,2017-03-12-15,35.476,-81.254,5,m:eHFadVM

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11 minutes ago, FallsLake said:

The NAM has done well the past year or so. I think most take it more seriously now; especially in the later time frames.   

 

10 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said:

Talk to the MA guys and let me know how that works out for you. Hahahahaa they bash the hell out of it.

Just went back and re-read our thread for the early Jan bust.  We road the GEFS/EPS combo and it failed us.   The NAM's got the upper level temps correct and the GFS was putrid. Look at this GEFS run inside 48 hours out...missed by a lot to the SE.  I would ride tonight's 4km NAM and RGEM.  If your relying on rates to drop temps you are going to be in trouble, though maybe that's just a Raleigh problem. 

https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/49469-winter-storm-16-18-2017/?do=findComment&comment=4390205

 

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4 minutes ago, griteater said:

This site doesn't have soundings, but it has maps for the Euro and you can toggle thru different levels (800mb / 850mb) to see the temperatures.  Click on the map itself to get a specific temperature readout as opposed to viewing the map contours.  On this link below, it is set on 800mb temperatures and the locale selected on the map is in SW VA

https://www.windytv.com/?800h,temp,2017-03-12-15,35.476,-81.254,5,m:eHFadVM

Thanks a lot for that! That sight is awesome. Gonna explore it more now.

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3 hours ago, wxtylerb said:

I am the Chief Meteorologist in Beckley, West Virginia, I know this is the southeastern thread and includes Virginia, but not West Virginia. I feel like West Virginia gets left out on the thread of Mid Atlantic, so I might start posting in here.  What a storm to forecast. 

Welcome Tyler. You are more than welcome to post in the SE forum. We would love it. WE have a handful of people in SW VA which sometimes is similar to Beckleys climate. 

Lived there for a short time. :)

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26 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said:

For once, I am kind of proud of the NAM. It literally has shown that heavy band over the 81 corridor for almost 7-8 runs in a row. Very solid.

 

23 minutes ago, FallsLake said:

The NAM has done well the past year or so. I think most take it more seriously now; especially in the later time frames.   

I'm fairly confident the NAM recently received some upgrades to its resolution. Perhaps this is why the NAM has been performing better and better with recent storms. 

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4 minutes ago, CAD_Wedge_NC said:

Will the south trend continue with the 00z suite? That is the hope for us NC folks. This could get interesting.

Ok, so if that ULL can keep trending more south/southwest then more people could potentially get in the game here. Realistically not sure how much it will continue to trend until there is a general consensus, seeing as how we are less than 24 hours from precipitation making it into our general viewing area.

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43 minutes ago, griteater said:

This site doesn't have soundings, but it has maps for the Euro and you can toggle thru different levels (800mb / 850mb) to see the temperatures.  Click on the map itself to get a specific temperature readout as opposed to viewing the map contours.  On this link below, it is set on 800mb temperatures and the locale selected on the map is in SW VA

https://www.windytv.com/?800h,temp,2017-03-12-15,35.476,-81.254,5,m:eHFadVM

That's pretty cool, thanks!  Adds to the confusion as it looks like we are ok at 850 and 800 and the surface is ok by 10 or 11 PM.  I guess we will wait and see.

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5 minutes ago, SN_Lover said:

Watch the IL low fade away. Might get interesting.  

namconus_mslpaNorm_us_fh24_trend.gif

Always great to see that beautiful wedge the day before the storm oozing down the appalachians all the way to north GA. You got the 1032 up north of Syranac Lake supplying it.

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1 minute ago, Buddy1987 said:

Always great to see that beautiful wedge the day before the storm oozing down the appalachians all the way to north GA. You got the 1032 up north of Syranac Lake supplying it.

I've looked on other sites, wxrisk, and he showing models and they seem to be back and forth or probably I just don't know what I'm looking for. 

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2 minutes ago, Northern Foothills Snowman said:

I've looked on other sites, wxrisk, and he showing models and they seem to be back and forth or probably I just don't know what I'm looking for. 

If I were living down in Mt. Airy area, I would be looking for the low to bomb or strengthen quicker and allow the colder air to get funneled down the west side. The upper level low is trending favorably for this to possibly occur. The 0z models will be coming out shortly. Leadoff hitter will be the NAM around 2130 hours I believe is the time now with the new time change. There will be plenty of commentating going on in here tonight, so feel free to ask questions. 

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This should let people know how volatile of a forecast this can be. Strong dynamics in play with this system. Text insert from SPC regarding tomorrow. 

 

..The Mid-Atlantic region and Carolinas into the southern
   Appalachians...
   Elevated showers and possibly some embedded lightning is expected
   from the southern Appalachians east/northeast into the Carolinas and
   mid-Atlantic region, as the upper short-wave trough advances
   cyclonically eastward across the region.  At this time, risk for
   surface-based storms appears minimal, confined to the Carolina Outer
   Banks at best.  While a stronger storm cannot be entirely ruled out
   near the coast, at this time it appears that any more vigorous
   convection will remain offshore.

day2otlk_1730.gif

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1 hour ago, Buddy1987 said:

If I were living down in Mt. Airy area, I would be looking for the low to bomb or strengthen quicker and allow the colder air to get funneled down the west side. The upper level low is trending favorably for this to possibly occur. The 0z models will be coming out shortly. Leadoff hitter will be the NAM around 2130 hours I believe is the time now with the new time change. There will be plenty of commentating going on in here tonight, so feel free to ask questions. 

I'm about 5 miles North of Dobson , Haystack Rd, roughly 175 ft. higher in elevation. I noticed when it snows at my home we get more than in city limits. 

Thanks for the update. I hope everyone in NC can score on this one. 

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22 minutes ago, Northern Foothills Snowman said:

I'm about 8 miles SW of Mt Airy , Haystack Rd, roughly 100 ft higher in elevation. I noticed when it snows at my home we get more than in city limits. 

Thanks for the update. I hope everyone in NC can score on this one. 

We all want snow but this storm is most likely a NW NC up through Virginia storm. I would be very hopeful at your location. I suppose a miracle could happen for folks farther east; but me for one used up my weekly miracle on the light snow this morning.

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51 minutes ago, Northern Foothills Snowman said:

Thanks for sharing. I'll take it. 

Fair warning: that map includes ZR/IP, which is what falls almost exclusively once you go down the escarpment. Even the mountains see a good bit of ZR/IP at the start before transitioning to heavy snow (on the NAM anyways).

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I know SREFs suck but they are trending cooler.  Total qpf up, total snow up and the point in time on the ptype grid where snow chances equal rain chances has moved  up in time.  Was as bad as 12z Tuesday now id close at 3z.  I have been badly disappointed by trusting the SREF but there is clearly a trend today.

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Just now, nomanslandva said:

I know SREFs suck but they are trending cooler.  Total qpf up, total snow up and the point in time on the ptype grid where snow chances equal rain chances has moved  up in time.  Was as bad as 12z Tuesday now id close at 3z.  I have been badly disappointed by trusting the SREF but there is clearly a trend today.

Careful with the sref man. 

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Just so people get a better idea. If you look at the KS/OK area, you can see the area of vorticity is further south on the 0z. This is a continued trend in the model suites to want to dig the northern stream more. We'll see how it translates down stream here shortly.

USA_VRTHGTGRD_500mb_010.gif

USA_VRTHGTGRD_500mb_016.gif

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