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3/13- 3/14 Winter Storm Threat


Buddy1987

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4 minutes ago, packbacker said:

Lots of spiking of the football in forums north of us...one or two of these areas will be disappointed come Mon-Tues.   Question is which ones...

Already accepted my disappointment but misery loves company :-)

Yea and the DC boys are extra full of themselves tonight. Can't ask a simple question without getting the fringecryers will be coming out. I mean I went from 10" on the GFS to 1.9" on the GFS in one run lol. That OH valley low is making me nervous.

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1 minute ago, Buddy1987 said:

Yea and the DC boys are extra full of themselves tonight. Can't ask a simple question without getting the fringecryers will be coming out. I mean I went from 10" on the GFS to 1.9" on the GFS in one run lol. That OH valley low is making me nervous.

Ohio low is the new lakes low! With added despair! 

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2 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said:

Yea and the DC boys are extra full of themselves tonight. Can't ask a simple question without getting the fringecryers will be coming out. I mean I went from 10" on the GFS to 1.9" on the GFS in one run lol. That OH valley low is making me nervous.

Wouldn't put to much worry into the GFS or even the CMC.  UK and Euro should do well.  But, no phase or partial won't be good.

Theme of this winter has been to evaporate day 4-5 snow threats.  Hopefully that streak ends with this mid March blizzard for w-NC and points NE. 

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3 minutes ago, packbacker said:

Wouldn't put to much worry into the GFS or even the CMC.  UK and Euro should do well.  But, no phase or partial won't be good.

Theme of this winter has been to evaporate day 4-5 snow threats.  Hopefully that streak ends with this mid March blizzard for w-NC and points NE. 

Ukie is a monster man! Look for the Euro to spit out some awesome numbers. Euro does very well in these types of events.

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1 hour ago, fritschy said:

You would think with storm going up the coast it would pull more cold air down on the nw side of the storm which would put all wnc in for a heavy snow event Monday night.  can't quite figure that one.

There is a low in the Ohio Valley that is killing us temp wise.

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36 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said:

Nam has been trying to nam the entire 81 corridor for about 3-4 runs in a row. This run actually gives the most realistic shot here, as it weakens the primary quicker. Lets hope to good things today!!

Except it's a blowtorch at 800mb. It's a raging sleet storm for 81 with a bit of slushy wet snow to top it off. This storm is not our's. Unfortunately, if you want a good shot of snow with this storm you're gonna have to go north of I-64.

You can see there is a pretty substantial warm layer throughout the bulk of the heavy precip --  It eventually cools down by 6z Tuesday, but the heavy synoptic features are pulling away and it's mostly lighter precip/wrap around stuff. 

 

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20 minutes ago, Disc said:

Euro has an inch to maybe two inches of slop for SW VA. 3" at the highest elevations.

Unreal. 24 hours ago I was licking my chops. I know how NC and SC folks feel now. Obv I guess there is still def a chance the models could be underperforming on the deform band on the nw side of the low and the moisture influx up against the apps. Still holding out modest hope as the models arent entirely in agreement. I will say the Euro is pretty far east compared to other guidance. Even NavGem is west of Euro. Not sure ive ever seen that. Usually an eastern outlier so... synoptically h5 on euro looked similar to 0z run so who knows the presentation could look better tomorrow at this time. 

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1 hour ago, Buddy1987 said:

Unreal. 24 hours ago I was licking my chops. I know how NC and SC folks feel now. Obv I guess there is still def a chance the models could be underperforming on the deform band on the nw side of the low and the moisture influx up against the apps. Still holding out modest hope as the models arent entirely in agreement. I will say the Euro is pretty far east compared to other guidance. Even NavGem is west of Euro. Not sure ive ever seen that. Usually an eastern outlier so... synoptically h5 on euro looked similar to 0z run so who knows the presentation could look better tomorrow at this time. 

 

Unfortunately there just isn't much there to deliver the cold air for anyone in NC and most of VA too. The warm surge of air aloft caused by the low to the northwest and the secondary low forming right along the coast is simply scouring out any residual cold air. A cold rain for most of us except the mountains. 

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Dont look now but GFS and NAM trying to make a comeback for VA zones. Northern stream energy is much weaker at 18z. Hopefully this continues into the 0z model suites. GFS snowfall up to around 5-6" verbatim off the tropical tidbits page. 



I feel like today was in that 3-4 day range where we see the storm get "lost" only to gradually trend better and better


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1 hour ago, Buddy1987 said:

Dont look now but GFS and NAM trying to make a comeback for VA zones. Northern stream energy is much weaker at 18z. Hopefully this continues into the 0z model suites. GFS snowfall up to around 5-6" verbatim off the tropical tidbits page. 

would Asheville get any snow out of the Monday night storm?  maybe it will trend some down our way.

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12 minutes ago, fritschy said:

would Asheville get any snow out of the Monday night storm?  maybe it will trend some down our way.

I could see Asheville getting a mix possible, but it will be very light if anything does fall. The storm gets going too late for anything more than that.

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30 minutes ago, fritschy said:

would Asheville get any snow out of the Monday night storm?  maybe it will trend some down our way.

Problem is the weak rates and the subsequent 850s that come with those weak rates down your way. You have some pretty good elevation though correct? 

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