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3/13- 3/14 Winter Storm Threat


Buddy1987

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42 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said:

Lets hope the GFS is wrong then with its double structure type low setup. It is in its own camp somewhat correct?

It is. It's struggling with the phasing. We (as in all western posters) need the northern low to dig quicker and the southern stream low to be stronger and dominant earlier. A bombing low tracking inland along the coast is what we need.

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1 hour ago, Cold Rain said:

Probably looking at the easternmost set of solutions today, if it does indeed wrap up into a bomb.  The place to be is probably TN up through WV.

Yep...both EPS/GEFS really hug the surface low close.   With the atlantic ridge, plus the PV lobe pointing SW due to the developing Omega ridge it's hard to imagine it escaping east...unless it misses the phase.  That seems unlikely though...IMO.  This has big dog written all over and would love to be interior NE.

 

gfs-ens_z500a_namer_16.png

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Long range 0Z NAM looks wonky to me. 850s are definitely noticeably warmer for most. It is an absolute paste bomb from ROA north however. 2M temps are sketchy however. This is the LR Nam however, so take it with a grain of salt.

 

Edit: Extremely warm even for DCA, etc.. 

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8 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

GFS still has too much warm air being pulled north from the secondary ohio valley low so no big totals except DC north where they get crushed 

Is this scenario plausible? I am not sure if I have seen any other model do this with the event. I know Pack and I talked earlier and the GFS has had past tendencies to drive the primary to far north. Thoughts?

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19 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said:

Is this scenario plausible? I am not sure if I have seen any other model do this with the event. I know Pack and I talked earlier and the GFS has had past tendencies to drive the primary to far north. Thoughts?

I know it performed terribly with the January 2016 storm doing something very similar. Doubt they've fixed that problem yet.

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9 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said:

Is this scenario plausible? I am not sure if I have seen any other model do this with the event. I know Pack and I talked earlier and the GFS has had past tendencies to drive the primary to far north. Thoughts?

Over past few runs GFS has trended to more seperation (less phase) and the low over the lakes is retreating a little. Less phased solution probably won't be good I would guess.

UK at 96 had low over BM pounding BOS.   Will be interesting to see where it's located at hour 72.

Still Euro should be king with this but the UK ticking east is interesting.  GFS blows so wouldn't put to much thought in that model.

 

 

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