BornAgain13 Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Is this a good run for UK for us?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 ^ NO! Not unless "us" is in WV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted March 10, 2017 Author Share Posted March 10, 2017 10 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: Is this a good run for UK for us?? Ill take my chances with a tucked in monster like that. Heavy rates will overcome for the Blue Ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 That may work for you Buddy with a 999 over delmarva Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nomanslandva Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 CMC was cold enough but just way to far east. UK ...who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 GEFS with about 7-8 good hits for my area. Mean is about 4.5". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Levi's tweet shows how delicate this potential event and why CMC was east and the GFS west. Still think the Euro/EPS will be hard to beat inside day 4, it does better with phased events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 That GFS ensemble isn't that far off from being good for central NC... a shift east would do it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY1894 Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 From what I can see the euro should at least be decent for the western regions of NC specifically the mountains. Not sure about anywhere else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Sounds like it bombed starting off Savannah. Anyone with details and how it might impact our forum? Does it bomb early enough to pull in some cold air? TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted March 10, 2017 Author Share Posted March 10, 2017 2 minutes ago, tarheelwx said: Sounds like it bombed starting off Savannah. Anyone with details and how it might impact our forum? Does it bomb early enough to pull in some cold air? TW I did see where its a 991 monster as its off or ORH (Norfolk). The Euro depiction is def good for western areas of the area. If its able to phase early and parallel the coast this could be a good one! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 It pounds mtns and nice lick NW piedmont and foothills. foot plus Boone, Big frosty half foot Gboro to roxboro 4 inch line Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted March 10, 2017 Author Share Posted March 10, 2017 Pure weather porn at 5h, compliments of Bob Chill. Holy sh*t! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RubiksDestroyer Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Euro 850 mb temperature trend at 96... Though the LP is stronger and further NNW, the cold air pushes further southeast this run. The cause of this was because the inland/primary low was way weaker this time through, though it's still there-- the strength of this will be the deciding factor with regard to temps with this system, and currently the trend seems to be favorable. This is VERY close to something good for RDU west IMO, though we'd probably need to see the low shift just a tad back SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 This is why you root for this scenerio. I might whiff, but a 10 to 30 minute drive west and I can just pull over and enjoy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted March 10, 2017 Author Share Posted March 10, 2017 4 minutes ago, NCSNOW said: It pounds mtns and nice lick NW piedmont and foothills. foot plus Boone, Big frosty half foot Gboro to roxboro 4 inch line Damn 1.3" qpf for KROA. Sick!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 1 minute ago, NCSNOW said: This is why you root for this scenerio. I might whiff, but a 10 to 30 minute drive west and I can just pull over and enjoy This looks really good, this is what you typically draw up for big coastals that wipe the east coast. Would love to see the h5 vort maps at this hour. If the surface was low just a tad east....would probably help you a ton. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Notice the small blue holes popping up over coastal plain areas sw va and NE SC on rubic destroyer image. It will only take the tinest of wiggles, quicker deepeneing, pivot etc to really suck in 850s cold enough or better make its own cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ajr Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 5 minutes ago, NCSNOW said: Notice the small blue holes popping up over coastal plain areas sw va and NE SC on rubic destroyer image. Dynamic cooling? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Simliar to 87...of course that was mid Jan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted March 10, 2017 Author Share Posted March 10, 2017 2 minutes ago, packbacker said: Simliar to 87...of course that was mid Jan. Thermals are way better tho for western areas. Overall synoptic setup tho you are correct with the low placement. I like it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted March 10, 2017 Author Share Posted March 10, 2017 http://www.upi.com/Archives/1987/01/22/A-winter-storm-pushed-up-the-Gulf-Coast-into/5231538290000/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 With the Ukie and Euro in lock step inside 5 days its not a if its gonna happen but excatly where its gonna happen deal now. Will be fun o watch the excat pinpoint location of cyclo genesis and these 50 mile wobbles in addition to even just a millibar or 2 drop or addition in forecasted pressure that will mean the difference between cold rain and 20 to 30 mile drive with 6+ inches on the ground. Ive seen this several times and come up on both ends of the stick. Never forget the December 2009 event where I would occasionally see slush mixing with rain and drove 9 miles to my NW and the ground was 4 inches of snow and mixing back and forth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 At 72 hrs on the Euro ... There's the energy back over LA that is the key. This need to keep together. The more this trends stronger, the faster the polar energy will phase in and weaken its primary low over the plains, and bomb out the gulf low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 10 minutes ago, NCSNOW said: With the Ukie and Euro in lock step inside 5 days its not a if its gonna happen but excatly where its gonna happen deal now. Will be fun o watch the excat pinpoint location of cyclo genesis and these 50 mile wobbles in addition to even just a millibar or 2 drop or addition in forecasted pressure that will mean the difference between cold rain and 20 to 30 mile drive with 6+ inches on the ground. Ive seen this several times and come up on both ends of the stick. Never forget the December 2009 event where I would occasionally see slush mixing with rain and drove 9 miles to my NW and the ground was 4 inches of snow and mixing back and forth. Agree...Euro/EPS look to be locked in from the freebie maps. The UK is like the GFS in that it doesn't have much of anything for the southern energy that Wow pointed out on the Euro. I hope the Euro is right but just slides a hair east and bombs out a little further south....#wishcastingFTL There is a damming high at 72-84 hours...just depends on how fast the OH/TN-valley low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Well, this looks like a better chance of getting something good than the Sunday system. And we have two additional days for things to work out with it. Maybe this one will be a good one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Any info on the EPS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Saw EPS on other board and its very tightley clustered with LP placement off our coast and spits out .75+ qpf western NC and 1.0 + eastern NC Rain Snow line runs right over my house give or take a 100 yards lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Euro has a 1011 low in the north/central gulf,1015 low in Iowa at 72 Ukie has a 1014 low further SW,1012 low in N.Missouri at 72 So yeah the Euro has a better look at the moment,wanting to get the gulf low going sooner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 see what the Nam is doing at 72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.