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March 13 - 15 Major Winter Storm Potential


NEG NAO

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1 hour ago, SnowGoose69 said:

March 2001 honestly may one of the closest as already posted.  On the 84 hour CIPS list in the NE US sector there are a few notable dates show, but given these are just sectors it does not usually grasp the entire pattern associated with the storm.  The notable dates at 84 hours are 02/14/07 02/05/95 and 03/13/1993

 

The upper air pattern in March 2001 was quite different from what is currently forecast this time around. I'm not sure how the CIPS analogs are picked out, but there are often inconsistencies between the CIPS analogs and the forecast upper air pattern.

AO03102017.jpg

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2 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

The NAM is way west for those who want to look for pure entertainment.  It would actually be similar to Christmas 02 if you took it literally, there would probably be an onslaught of snow to the coast somewhere near 96-102

Nam goes straight east from 81 to 84 hours

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on this solution anyone North and West of the Raritan River in NJ would be mostly snow throughout and past 84 the storm is starting to move off the coast so rain will change to snow further south and east if you extended this out past 84

namconus_ref_frzn_neus_52.png

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5 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said:

Not to be taken serious but Nams LP is practically identical to GFS hr 84... same spot.. maybe 25 miles west of GFS 

 

Idc what anyone says but when the GFS ukie and Nam have the nearly identical tracks, with the euro as an outlier, I take notice 

There's definitely time for shifts back and forth. Personally I'm leaning towards a track closer to the coast than the Euro but wrapped up, so that the cold air makes it close to the center. The only reason the GFS looks so warm is because of the weird stuff it's doing to the low to string it out. The low can make it to the twin forks and NYC might still be all or mostly snow. 

We've been seeing more amped than expected tracks up to this point at this range, no reason to think this won't follow the same pattern.

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1 minute ago, Juliancolton said:

One takeaway is that the NAM continues the nearly unanimous model trend of less northern stream involvement, to the point of almost ruling out a full phase at this point I would think.

The further West that Northern stream trough gets the greater the chances of a 12z GGEM solution. You want the phase, a clean one at that to maximize the full intensity potential. Most people wouldn't mix with the type of blocking forecast, at least not for the first 12 hours. Even if the storm tucks in, those dynamics will rapidly cool the mid levels.

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2 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

There's definitely time for shifts back and forth. Personally I'm leaning towards a track closer to the coast than the Euro but wrapped up, so that the cold air makes it close to the center. The only reason the GFS looks so warm is because of the weird stuff it's doing to the low to string it out. The low can make it to the twin forks and NYC might still be all or mostly snow. 

We've been seeing more amped than expected tracks up to this point at this range, no reason to think this won't follow the same pattern.

Agreed.. I doubt coast rains, I also doubt this is a 40/70 storm like euro

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4 minutes ago, Juliancolton said:

One takeaway is that the NAM continues the nearly unanimous model trend of less northern stream involvement, to the point of almost ruling out a full phase at this point I would think.

I think you really need the phase for a coast hugger track. The flow is still progressive and kicking the trough east, so although the trough is going negative, it's overall shifting east.

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2 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

I think you really need the phase for a coast hugger track. The flow is still progressive and kicking the trough east, so although the trough is going negative, it's overall shifting east.

under that scenario-the NAM's solution doesnt make alot of sense-(of course we're talking about the 84 hr nam which is mostly useless on a good day)

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1 minute ago, Brian5671 said:

under that scenario-the NAM's solution doesnt make alot of sense-(of course we're talking about the 84 hr nam which is mostly useless on a good day)

I haven't looked at the run so I can't say either. It's really not useful until another day or so. The globals and ensembles are much better at this range.

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5 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

under that scenario-the NAM's solution doesnt make alot of sense-(of course we're talking about the 84 hr nam which is mostly useless on a good day)

The NAM is not very good at this range on anything very dynamic and complicated.  Clippers or weak type lows it can sometimes do well, but rarely on something as convoluted and deep as this.

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