matzacski Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 1 minute ago, mikem81 said: Doesnt the nam tend to overamp storms like this? Yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 3 minutes ago, Snow88 said: 8-12 inches for NYC on the 12k Nam with more to the north and west So close to crushing everyone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 1 minute ago, CIK62 said: 18Z GFS Cobb Method has NYC @18" but LGA Plume has it 11" still, with a lot of wasted precip. for some reason. Don't worry about stuff like that at this stage. Tonight should be a key run as well as tomorrow for final trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said: So close to crushing everyone The NAM seems to want to track the storm the right way but its insistence on keeping something on the coast (note the sagging heights by ACY) races too much warm air in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 look here. huge run..epic nw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Plowsman Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Anyone care to take a stab at current projection for the Mon County snow hole of late?Sent from my P027 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Just now, Animal said: look here. huge run..epic nw I would use the NAM for trends at this point only and not for precip amounts or types. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 3 feet in the catskills Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 3 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Don't worry about stuff like that at this stage. Tonight should be a key run as well as tomorrow for final trends. The PLUME must have some NAM like members mixed in, cutting the total, while the GFS Cobb is just the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Nam looks good, wetter than previous runs, and sig colder/further east low placement Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Just now, CIK62 said: The PLUME must have some NAM like members mixed in, cutting the total, while the GFS Cobb is just the GFS. The NAM is very often too amped with systems like these at this stage, which throws the SREF off. But it's definitely still worth watching global models for shifts west tonight or tomorrow (I think the track ends up west of the GFS/Euro this afternoon). I don't think it ends up like the NAM but nothing can be ruled out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 This was posted by John (Earthlight) on his twitter feed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Jeez, RPM has a 976 inside of the benchmark Monster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 The RGEM on the awful black and white maps actually looks similar to the NAM at 48 believe it or not Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 4 minutes ago, Rtd208 said: This was posted by John (Earthlight) on his twitter feed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 7 minutes ago, Rtd208 said: 4k Nam and 3k Nam is a lot colder than the regular Nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 2 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: I'm so confused with all these nams Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 The NAM is trying in its own way to emphasize the low offshore but the sloppiness that it brings the system up seems to keep the hugging the coast reflection for too long. The surface low on the NAM at hr60 looks to be near Camden, NJ. The Para NAM looks like it has a better idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 1 minute ago, Snow88 said: 4k Nam and 3k Nam is a lot colder than the regular Nam I second that emotion in a BIG way. It would be great if someone who is certain could brifely explain the differences between the 3 NAMS. I presumed they were different levels of meso? But if they are coming up with entirely different temp profiles obviously this greatly outcomes from 2-4 + rain to 8-12 + mix to 18 ++ potentially Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 1 minute ago, jm1220 said: The NAM is trying in its own way to emphasize the low offshore but the sloppiness that it brings the system up seems to keep the hugging the coast reflection for too long. The surface low on the NAM at hr60 looks to be near Camden, NJ. The Para NAM looks like it has a better idea. I posted earlier, that the para Nam at 500 was consistent with the GFS/ukie... yet was able to allow for expansion of western shield.. para Nam does look like best bet.. if you wanna look at the nam... the RGEM/srefs being so close to the nam at hr 48 raises a flag that the western pull back may be coming on other Global's tonight or tomorrow with better sampling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Para Nam is 12-18+ area wide... all the way ito central PA sees 25+ lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Just now, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Para Nam is 12-18+ area wide... all the way ito central PA sees 25+ lol I can believe that with a strong low inside the benchmark. The precip shield should be huge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
husky0101 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Is it only me or is the precip pushed out of our region sooner and sooner with each model run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 1 minute ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: I posted earlier, that the para Nam at 500 was consistent with the GFS/ukie... yet was able to allow for expansion of western shield.. para Nam does look like best bet.. if you wanna look at the nam... the RGEM/srefs being so close to the nam at hr 48 raises a flag that the western pull back may be coming on other Global's tonight or tomorrow with better sampling My idea is a wrapped up low (not a sloppy NAM-like mess) going through between Block Island and Nantucket. I'm not buying an escape SE of the benchmark with an energetic system like this. Storms have ended up on the NW end of guidance at this range, don't see much reason to think differently now. But such a track likely isn't bad for NYC, since the cold air will be wrapped in well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Just now, husky0101 said: Is it only me or is the precip pushed out of our region sooner and sooner with each model run? We see this constantly... models always show these long duration 24-36hr events 4-6 days out.. and speed it up as we draw near.. precip always starts and ends quicker than modeled Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 14 minutes ago, Rtd208 said: This was posted by John (Earthlight) on his twitter feed. The next frame of that is LOL... Here: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 1 minute ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: We see this constantly... models always show these long duration 24-36hr events 4-6 days out.. and speed it up as we draw near.. precip always starts and ends quicker than modeled Except last January when we had the blizzard which was 27 hours long Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 1 minute ago, Snow88 said: Except last January when we had the blizzard which was 27 hours long You had a blizzard that was 27 hours long Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Just now, UlsterCountySnowZ said: NYC has 12" by the end of this time frame already FYI... lol epic snowfall if true This is at least 20 inches for the area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 6 minutes ago, EasternLI said: The next frame of that is LOL... Here: Look at that Northern NJ/Morris County mega band. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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