nyblizz44 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 I am going to start with a postive attitude but be prepared for some heart break. The weather is like life: hope for the best but be prepared for the worst. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 1 minute ago, JetsPens87 said: Not sure what is going on with 00z runs. My friend just sent me a tweet that almost made it sound like we weren't going to be getting the new extra dropsonde data into the 00z suite. But I am not sure if we are delayed because we are waiting for that data or delayed for other reasons and not getting that data. nam out to hr 42 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 17 minutes ago, Paragon said: based on the graphs just posted the nao has been between neutral and +1 the entire time it never went below neutral and it never went higher than +1, that is strange since I strongly recall a few days ago people being extremely excited about the nao going negative, hmmmm There are different ways of measuring the NAO, and not all high latitude blocks near Greenland register as a -NAO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 7 minutes ago, JetsPens87 said: I'd say it's more of an investigative biopsy heh, nothing "dead" about this system at all. nice medical term ;-) Can't declare the patient dead yet, Jim......we still have a heartbeat on the ECG! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 1 minute ago, nzucker said: There are different ways of measuring the NAO, and not all high latitude blocks near Greenland register as a -NAO. and just to make things more complicated we have the west based blocks vs the east based blocks, though this was supposed to be west based Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 33 minutes ago, JerseyWx said: Awesome, thank you for taking the time to respond. big hit interior hr 54 wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Just now, Paragon said: and just to make things more complicated we have the west based blocks vs the east based blocks, though this was supposed to be west based That's why this didn't register as a -NAO: it was too far west. The classic way of measuring the NAO is calculating the difference in pressure between Iceland and the Azores Islands. High pressure over Hudson Bay/Baffin Island is often too far west to count in the traditional measurement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 4 minutes ago, nzucker said: That's why this didn't register as a -NAO: it was too far west. The classic way of measuring the NAO is calculating the difference in pressure between Iceland and the Azores Islands. High pressure over Hudson Bay/Baffin Island is often too far west to count in the traditional measurement. So can we develop a way of just measuring west based blocks? Better yet, can we predict them to any degree? I would guess not since everyone who has tried to find a way to predict the NAO (west or east or both) has failed lol. Either way I'd like to see graphs that just measured and predicted west based blocks and leave out the east based ones and see if we can tie it into the AO somehow (which I assume is not east or west based.) That would be FAR more useful since east based NAO are next to useless for us. This kind of reminds me of the different ways to measure ENSO, Darwin and Tahiti and all that stuff and the arguments I've seen over the SOI lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Nams a beauty... first run with southern stream sampling too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 interior crush job Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 GFS is well east with LP, but as expected with the other models not showing it, the western precip is far more defined and expansive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCGreg Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Sounds like a beauty for interior. Does that mean rain for coast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 2 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Nams a beauty... first run with southern stream sampling too Good. I'm glad this thing isn't going to the right. It may not have the new data, but it's still a new run with updated surface conditions. edit: it has the new data YAY! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Para Nam is colder than the regular Nam but the regular Nam also cooled off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 NWS has NYC under Blizzard Watch so they expect the worst here. 12"-18" and gusts to 50mph, but oddly no mention of drifting. Other areas are under Winter Storm Watch and to the south they may have precip. type problems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Just now, UlsterCountySnowZ said: GFS is well east with LP, but as expected with the other models not showing it, the western precip is far more defined and expansive Thus far all the comments seem to be focused on the interior, how about the coast ( from the city on east?) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 1 minute ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: GFS is well east with LP, but as expected with the other models not showing it, the western precip is far more defined and expansive you mean nam right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 snows to detroit on the na, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 2 minutes ago, NYCGreg said: Sounds like a beauty for interior. Does that mean rain for coast? Yes but colder than previous runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 2 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: GFS is well east with LP, but as expected with the other models not showing it, the western precip is far more defined and expansive Thanks Billy and all the rest----does this mean coast mixes or rain ? Can we tell if storm is long duration or quick mover ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 4 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Nams a beauty... first run with southern stream sampling too Still a little warm for the I-95 corridor? But looks much different than the globals with widespread heavy precip. Also a little colder than previous NAM runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Just now, Stormlover74 said: Yes but colder than previous runs yes nam went east with the Low center but more expansive precip shield to the west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 8-12 inches for NYC on the 12k Nam with more to the north and west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
husky0101 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Is it only me or does the precip from this storm end sooner and sooner with each model run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 1 minute ago, Snow88 said: 8-12 inches for NYC on the 12k Nam with more to the north and west How are the upper levels looking? is it understanding the nature of the beast better with the ingestion of the info? It appears based on the PBP that it is adjusting east which is bringing colder air to bear and I expect further adjustement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Doesnt the nam tend to overamp storms like this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 18Z GFS Cobb Method has NYC @18" but LGA Plume has it 11" still, with a lot of wasted precip. for some reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 1 minute ago, nyblizz44 said: How are the upper levels looking? is it understanding the nature of the beast better with the ingestion of the info? It appears based on the PBP that it is adjusting east which is bringing colder air to bear and I expect further adjustement. Much better this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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