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March 13 - 15 Major Winter Storm Potential


NEG NAO

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20 minutes ago, BlizzardNYC said:

Low is actually 30-50 miles east of most guidance

Thank you, this is what's important right now not the stupid Nam. Some people just like to see pretty charts instead of practicing real meteorology. I really really really like the fact that the low is east of what the models have. Great sign. I still think this thing wants to find the largest temp gradient which is out by the Gulf Stream. There is a reason so many historical tracks are out there and so few tucked into ACY

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22 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

This is the first time I can remember a storm 'trending' this much west at the last minute. Or just didnt notice because the low was offshore so we had much more wiggle room

yes, this happens a lot- the low is offshore and we get fringed and keeps trending closer to the coast and then we get hit.

It's why I never had a lot of hope with this system for the coast because I know from experience you need a storm to be well offshore to leave room for the inevitable move back NW. Starting out with the ideal track isn't usually a good thing.

 

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3 minutes ago, Brasiluvsnow said:

silly question----could these model runs or all this disagreement with them have something to do with the ocean being way warmer than usual at this time of year > I mean I think its like 10 degrees above normal,,,could be big factor no ?

Ocean temp is 42 degrees south of Islip

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1 minute ago, Brasiluvsnow said:

silly question----could these model runs or all this disagreement with them have something to do with the ocean being way warmer than usual at this time of year > I mean I think its like 10 degrees above normal,,,could be big factor no ?

There's been some evidence that the warmer SSTs of the 2000s has led to more model and weather volatility, but the H7 and H85 don't lie. 

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6 minutes ago, Brasiluvsnow said:

silly question----could these model runs or all this disagreement with them have something to do with the ocean being way warmer than usual at this time of year > I mean I think its like 10 degrees above normal,,,could be big factor no ?

More like 2-3.

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2017/anomw.3.13.2017.gif

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1 minute ago, WeatherFeen2000 said:

brrr shows 18 inches not 10

Crazy there are these kinds of differences when flurries are starting already. Maybe we can split the difference? Thing is, the NAM hasn't been bad this winter, but we also haven't had a deep, Gulf convection driven system yet. 

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