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March 13 - 15 Major Winter Storm Potential


NEG NAO

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1 minute ago, jm1220 said:

If this run's right, hopefully there's something left on the ground here after the washout. I have to think it's overdone but the NAM has to be onto something at this point. 

This is the first time I can remember a storm 'trending' this much west at the last minute. Or just didnt notice because the low was offshore so we had much more wiggle room

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1 minute ago, sferic said:

No concensus this close means radar watching and nowcasting

Yep.  It was always going to come down to Now Casting.  So many variables.  Back to the days when models were useless.  We're in the Wild West of meteorology.  Yippee Ki YaY Model Huggers!!!!!  This is just one of those hard forecasts close to an event in which 20 million people have forecasts the can change in a matter of 6 hours.  FYI... NAM already looks different from the surface analysis. 

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2 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

This is the first time I can remember a storm 'trending' this much west at the last minute. Or just didnt notice because the low was offshore so we had much more wiggle room

 

 

if you take this model with what the guy on TWC has been saying, connect the dots here...not saying its going to happen but there has to be concern here...I mean people saying ooh toss the models, thats ridiculous the NAM is a model you can use at this time frame..something is going on...RGEM backed it up earlier

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If this run's right, hopefully there's something left on the ground here after the washout. I have to think it's overdone but the NAM has to be onto something at this point. 


Brother, I just don't buy this. The model that is.

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-N920A using Tapatalk

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3 minutes ago, Rittenhouse said:

Ugly run. Rain line makes it into Westchester. Mostly rain event for the I-95. This kind of bust would probably top Jan 2015.

Yea...although I don't expect it to be THIS bad...those insisting no way rain gets west of central long island can't be right either

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1 minute ago, USCG RS said:


Brother, I just don't buy this. The model that is.

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-N920A using Tapatalk
 

I know the HRRR is unreliable at long range but it's coming in closer now and it's still insisting on a nice event for almost everyone. And it's crazier that the different NAM versions are still disagreeing like this. I have to think maybe the NAM is going too crazy with the convective features and driving the low inland as a result. 

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3 minutes ago, winterwarlock said:

 

 

if you take this model with what the guy on TWC has been saying, connect the dots here...not saying its going to happen but there has to be concern here...I mean people saying ooh toss the models, thats ridiculous the NAM is a model you can use at this time frame..something is going on...RGEM backed it up earlier

RGEM did not show a scenario like this.

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2 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

I know the HRRR is unreliable at long range but it's coming in closer now and it's still insisting on a nice event for almost everyone. And it's crazier that the different NAM versions are still disagreeing like this. I have to think maybe the NAM is going too crazy with the convective features and driving the low inland as a result. 

Yeah I mean we're way less than 12 hours from start time, I think it's a good tool to use at this point.  Been consistent tonight, I can tell you that.

 

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5 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

I know the HRRR is unreliable at long range but it's coming in closer now and it's still insisting on a nice event for almost everyone. And it's crazier that the different NAM versions are still disagreeing like this. I have to think maybe the NAM is going too crazy with the convective features and driving the low inland as a result. 

The hrrr takes the low over VA as well

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