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March 13 - 15 Major Winter Storm Potential


NEG NAO

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5 minutes ago, mimillman said:

I'm surprised the warning text there still says 18-24". Upton has done a good job to start rolling back accumulations and mentioning mixing. And of all media, the Weather Channel also has done a great job in rolling back accumulations. Tom Niziol specifically mentioned live that he sees the higher extent of NYC snow at around 12".

I also have to admit I'm surprised how this turned out. I was just sure just 3 days ago this set up was going to favor the Island and SE Mass.

They still have NYC at 17" in their "most likely" graph which was updated at 8:19PM

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3 minutes ago, mimillman said:

I'm surprised the warning text there still says 18-24". Upton has done a good job to start rolling back accumulations and mentioning mixing. And of all media, the Weather Channel also has done a great job in rolling back accumulations. Tom Niziol specifically mentioned live that he sees the higher extent of NYC snow at around 12".

I also have to admit I'm surprised how this turned out. I was just sure just 3 days ago this set up was going to favor the Island and SE Mass.

The outcomes of these coastal storms by and large over the past couple of years (Juno notwithstanding) has favored a late amped trend. Jonas last year trended north very late, so did the post New Years storm this year. That's why it was easy for me to toss the GFS runs that were well east and the fluke Euro run. But I was hopeful we could keep up the pattern of storms tracking a bit offshore, this one though will break that pattern. The 0z runs making the trend NW last night was the nail in that coffin. 

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22 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

 

I share your fear, especially given how the NWS was so freakin' slow in admitting that the Jan-2015 "blizzard" wasn't going to verify anywhere in NJ (especially west of the Parkway).  There were tons of posts around the start of the storm questioning their forecast and they didn't actually cut back for several hours after it was obvious we were toast.  

That was just a big mistake and putting too much faith in the euro when it was all alone.

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2 minutes ago, Drz1111 said:

8" is less than ALL guidance and 14" is less than MOST guidance.  It's a bad forecast unsupported by the models.  

I really don't believe that it's a far stretch from reality. It's a wide range that still highlights the very real potential for 12"+ of snow in the metro. Sure, maybe 8" is on the lower side, but following model guidance verbatim doesn't make a forecast either.

Do you really not envision a scenario where the metro receives 8" of snow? Like, not even JFK? The surface low tracks barely off the south shore of Long Island. A 25 mile shift west is just as likely as a 25 mile shift east. 

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1 minute ago, SACRUS said:

Lets see how this works.  I will take the MAr '93 total as a base of the range and add 35% as a max for snow projections.
 
LGA: 12.3 - 16.6
NYC: 10.6 - 14.3
EWR: 11.0 - 14.8
TTN: 14.8 - 20.6

I can see all of that verifying with the exception of TTN. But otherwise, nice methodology lol

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3 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

Just a guess but perhaps in house or some univerity as well as the  recent 18z suite.  Not saying I agree at all - lets see what the 00z suite and the radar shows,

Sacrus, are you doing the 00z model suite info?

If so can you differentiate with prior runs indicating a change from east to west or west to east?

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1 minute ago, Doorman said:

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/dlmmain.php?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8&prod=dlm1&zoom=&time=

wg8dlm1.GIF.82047e8d3def86c17f8dc6d6223ea5dd.GIF

CIMMS low level steering guidance  0000 -UTC

sub-tropical jet right up the coast-

then the big turn right at Long Island thru the benchmark

you will never see a better pattern for a winter storm Goliath  -imho

That's a beautiful image right there. Glad to see you back, man.

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17 minutes ago, ILoveWinter said:

They still have NYC at 17" in their "most likely" graph which was updated at 8:19PM

True. That is down from earlier today, albeit marginally.

But take a look at their "expect at least this much" graphic. Major differences there, highlighting the immense uncertainty. Islip at <1"? Now that's extreme, and I do think that even the 6" shown for NYC is too low. 

Look, I know I'm slightly more pessimistic than most on the board, but I try to be balanced and I do think carefully about these decisions. I sincerely think 8-14" is a good call here given the positioning of the low at the surface and more importantly, between 850-700mb.

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3 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

GEM-LAM snow accums. The GEM-LAM is pretty deadly inside of 24h.

SN_000-036_0000.gif

It sort of blew the last event although the ground temps likely played a role on that.  Also notice that both RGEM versions keep showing that screw zone in CNJ between what may be two mega bands 

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33 minutes ago, dmillz25 said:

2014 was a great storm here honestly 

Yes.  I had to take a second to sip on some cerveza and take a trip down memory lane with this storm.  The dynamics were awesome with this storm.  Temps were marginal at the beginning.

http://www.nycareaweather.com/archives/february-13-2014/

I wanted to use it as an example today to demonstrate the type of Monster we may be dealing with tomorrow.  There are so many parallels between Feb. 2014 and tomorrows Blizzarder. AW Members in Long Island and the boroughs of NYC thought they were going to switch over to rain for many hours, but a lot of areas on the Island hung on longer than expected as a result of the dynamics.  There was an ECMWF/NAM camp of models depicting the storm further west, and I think a few models had the storm slicing through LI and tracking across Eastern CT right before the storm. 

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33 minutes ago, mimillman said:

I'm surprised the warning text there still says 18-24". Upton has done a good job to start rolling back accumulations and mentioning mixing. And of all media, the Weather Channel also has done a great job in rolling back accumulations. Tom Niziol specifically mentioned live that he sees the higher extent of NYC snow at around 12".

I also have to admit I'm surprised how this turned out. I was just sure just 3 days ago this set up was going to favor the Island and SE Mass.

Yep, saw Niziol making the comments about NYC getting less than a foot before changing to sleet then rain (not just sleet) - had thought the worst case was sleet; rain would suck on top of the snow.  Anyway, certainly not the best of trends today/tonight.  Who knows, maybe we'll get lucky.  

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