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March 13 - 15 Major Winter Storm Potential


NEG NAO

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Just now, sferic said:

No model runs later tonight can give us that answer? We have to wait in real time until 13z?

These types of systems are so dynamic that surprises such as dramatic errors in rain/mix lines sometimes occur. Models are still slaves to nature.

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10 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

The changeover line will either get stuck forever south of JFK or it will blast north something awful right into NYC.  We will know pretty quick what's going to happen.  If it's not into JFK by 13Z we are looking good 

it will and I have the under 13Z at JFK.

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20 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

The changeover line will either get stuck forever south of JFK or it will blast north something awful right into NYC.  We will know pretty quick what's going to happen.  If it's not into JFK by 13Z we are looking good 

in my experience there are very few storms that mix at JFK that do not mix at NYC, and usually it takes about 2 hours for the mix line to traverse that distance.

the two storms I can think of that mixed and changed to sleet at JFK but did not at NYC was the second storm in Feb 1994 (and JFK still got the same amount of snow as NYC or maybe even a little more, even though JFK changed to sleet and NYC did not) and the other one was December 2005, which was a total disaster east of the city, even on the north shore of LI- all rain here vs 6" of snow at NYC

 

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3 minutes ago, Paragon said:

in my experience there are very few storms that mix at JFK that do not mix at NYC, and usually it takes about 2 hours for the mix line to traverse that distance.

the two storms I can think of that mixed and changed to sleet at JFK but did not at NYC was the second storm in Feb 1994 (and JFK still got the same amount of snow as NYC or maybe even a little more, even though JFK changed to sleet and NYC did not) and the other one was December 2005, which was a total disaster east of the city, even on the north shore of LI- all rain here vs 6" of snow at NYC

 

1996 mixed at JFK but not CPK.

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An Amazing storm developing.  Currently it is affecting and building into the northern two thirds of  Florida  to most of the great lakes.  Reminds me of the 1993 super storm...which happened at about the same time.  We won't come close to the low pressure in that storm.  But wow...Area covered is incredible.

Here is a like to Sarcus' great ob thread.

 

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Just now, weatherpruf said:

 

Ah so it will be revised yet again.....

Lol of course but not because of one nam run. This is too much lol the map would look exactly the same after the nam they looked at the entire 6z and 12z suites and are some of the best meteorological minds in our area. Meteorologists not modelologists

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