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March 13 - 15 Major Winter Storm Potential


NEG NAO

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2 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

I think more likely than a 50/75 mile east track is that the warmth in the mid layers is overcome by the heavier precip rates and many areas near NYC just go SNPL or PLSN for periods of time.  I do know they nobody is changing to rain outside of eastern LI.  The surface wind component just doesn't support it on any model even if the model wants to show rain in some areas 

The 3k shows this to a tee.

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1 minute ago, JetsPens87 said:

 

Sorry but it looks to me like sleet especially overlaid on top of the mid level temp maps you posted.

That is sleet.  It was on there before, but has been moving north.  You can clearly see the separation between the snow/sleet/rain sectors.

 

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Just now, JetsPens87 said:

 

Sorry but it looks to me like sleet especially overlaid on top of the mid level temp maps you posted.

Yeah but does a temperature profile like this even make sense? By this hour the mid-levels are cooling rapidly.

nam4km_T850_neus_21.png

Three hours later

nam4km_T850_neus_22.png

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All these NAM runs still are printing out 15-25" of snow for us on their own snow maps. Could be what JetsPens is saying that the 850 get to about 0/+1C, and thats about it at the warmest. And combined with intense bombogenisis, will still be mostly snow or snow/sleet mix for a time (a la 1996). Is there anyway to show Kuchera on these NAM snow maps, that would take into account sleet...

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1 minute ago, NJwx85 said:

Yeah but does a temperature profile like this even make sense? By this hour the mid-levels are cooling rapidly.

nam4km_T850_neus_21.png

Three hours later

nam4km_T850_neus_22.png

The only thing I can think of is that the nam is trying to depict the entire column crashing frantically due to dynamic cooling and on the NW side of that process the warm air that has already filtered in can't be overcome since there won't be as much dynamic cooling at that time (subsidence).

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They upgraded Orange and Passaic Counties

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service New York NY
416 PM EDT Mon Mar 13 2017

...Major Winter Storm Late Tonight into Tuesday Evening...

NJZ002-NYZ067-068-140430-
/O.UPG.KOKX.WS.W.0004.170314T0400Z-170315T0400Z/
/O.EXA.KOKX.BZ.W.0002.170314T0400Z-170315T0400Z/
Western Passaic-Orange-Putnam-
416 PM EDT Mon Mar 13 2017

...BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO MIDNIGHT
EDT TUESDAY NIGHT...

The National Weather Service in Upton has issued a Blizzard
Warning, which is in effect from midnight tonight to midnight EDT
Tuesday night.

* Locations...Orange and Putnam counties in New York and Western
  Passaic County in New Jersey.

* Hazard Types...Heavy Snow and Blizzard Conditions.

* Snow Accumulations...18 to 24 inches with locally higher amounts.

* Snowfall Rates...2 to 4 inches per hour early Tuesday morning
  into Tuesday afternoon.

* Timing...Late tonight into Tuesday evening.

* Impacts...Dangerous travel due to whiteout conditions at
  times. Several roads may become impassable.

* Winds...Northeast 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 35 mph.

* Temperatures...In the lower 20s.

* Visibilities...One quarter mile or less at times.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Blizzard Warning means severe winter weather conditions are
expected or occurring. Falling and blowing snow with strong winds
and poor visibilities are likely. This will lead to whiteout
conditions...making travel extremely dangerous. Do not travel. If
you must travel...have a winter survival kit with you. If you get
stranded...stay with your vehicle.
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1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said:

If you ask me the main way this can bust in NE NJ and NYC proper is the 07-12Z window badly underperforms.  Nobody ever really sees rates over 1 inch per hour, bad snow growth etc etc. 

We'll know by 12z which is correct. Most models have the 0C line still a good bit south of Long Island then but the NAM is crashing it north. Heck, it gets zeroish 850s to N NJ. 

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The 4km and 3km still bring big snow totals into the city - the 32 and 12 don't (actually, I'm not sure about the 32 - tropicaltidbits doesn't include precip amounts). I would think the RGEM can be the deciding judge for the short-range forecast.

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4 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

We'll know by 12z which is correct. Most models have the 0C line still a good bit south of Long Island then but the NAM is crashing it north. Heck, it gets zeroish 850s to N NJ. 

lol JM I have a feeling that this is a nowcasting thing, just like it was with storms of the past.  Models historically do not handle mix or changeover lines well.

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Just now, Paragon said:

lol JM I have a feeling that this is a nowcasting thing, just like it was with storms of the past.  Models historically do not handle mix or changeover lines well.

The changeover line will either get stuck forever south of JFK or it will blast north something awful right into NYC.  We will know pretty quick what's going to happen.  If it's not into JFK by 13Z we are looking good 

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7 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

If you ask me the main way this can bust in NE NJ and NYC proper is the 07-12Z window badly underperforms.  Nobody ever really sees rates over 1 inch per hour, bad snow growth etc etc. 

What are temps in the snow growth region, somewhere between 750-600 for NYC and JFK? I'm guessing less than optimal. 

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4 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

The changeover line will either get stuck forever south of JFK or it will blast north something awful right into NYC.  We will know pretty quick what's going to happen.  If it's not into JFK by 13Z we are looking good 

No model runs later tonight can give us that answer? We have to wait in real time until 13z?

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