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March 13 - 15 Major Winter Storm Potential


NEG NAO

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3 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

I could see the North shore of Suffolk staying mostly snow while areas like the Hamptons pour rain tomorrow afternoon.

Yeah the Hamptons and the forks (especially the south fork) are in their own zone with this.  But the western part of southern Nassau can come close to matching the city in this kind of scenario.

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4 minutes ago, Joe4alb said:

100% accurate. Anything north of LIE has a much better chance of staying all snow. 

I don't think any part of Long Island will be all snow, but it could be more like 80% snow (west) vs 60% snow (central) vs 30% snow (east).

Computing snowfall projections based on 10:1 ratios and 2.0" LE to keep things simple that would be 16" in extreme western Nassau, about 12" in western Suffolk (which is central Long Island) and 6" out by Montauk.

 

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2 minutes ago, Snowlover11 said:

seems the stronger gusts have moved more inland than previous runs. its gunna be amazing looking out that window tomorrow morning.

Taking pictures will be tough when you can't see anything outside! I experienced that in last year's blizzard too.

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15 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Sure

ecmwf_uv10g_mph_nyc_6.thumb.png.c16bfb8d2deb2c15bcdb92774bf321f8.png

 

Chris, if I'm not mistaken our last two verified blizzards were Jan 2016 and Boxing Day 2010?  Jan 2016 was actually verified blizzard for six straight hours at JFK and Boxing Day 2010 was verified blizzard there too?

 

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5 minutes ago, BombsAway1288 said:

When do the the better short-range models come out and when should we really start looking at them? I don't think it's around anymore but what happened to the SUNY MM5? That model was always spot on when it came time to use it during the storm. 

it was great with banding! I think it was still around for Boxing Day!  Possibly renamed or something- maybe the ARW?

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7 minutes ago, BombsAway1288 said:

When do the the better short-range models come out and when should we really start looking at them? I don't think it's around anymore but what happened to the SUNY MM5? That model was always spot on when it came time to use it during the storm. 

I like using the HRRR to tell you the truth.  I think the RAP is decent too, but I have no experience with it.

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WSW Cancelled, Blizzard Warnings now up for PA and NW Burbs:
Issuing Office: Philadelphia
Source: National.Weather.Service

3:00pm EDT, Mon Mar 13

... BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT TUESDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A BLIZZARD WARNING, WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT TUESDAY. THE WINTER STORM WARNING IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. * LOCATIONS... EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND MUCH OF NORTHERN NEW JERSEY. * HAZARD TYPES... HEAVY SNOW AND STRONG WINDS. * ACCUMULATIONS... SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 18 TO 24 INCHES. * TIMING... SNOW BEGINS BETWEEN 10 PM AND MIDNIGHT FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE WARNING AREA, BECOMING HEAVY AT TIMES WITH SNOWFALL RATES OF THREE TO FOUR INCHES PER HOUR FOR SEVERAL HOURS TUESDAY MORNING. SNOW WILL DIMINISH LATE IN THE DAY TUESDAY. * IMPACTS... THE HEAVY SNOW WILL MAKE MANY ROADS IMPASSABLE AND MAY PRODUCE WIDESPREAD POWER OUTAGES DUE TO THE WEIGHT OF THE SNOW ON TREE LIMBS AND POWER LINES. STRONG WINDS WILL LEAD TO BLOWING SNOW, REDUCED VISIBILITY, AND ADDITIONAL POWER OUTAGES. * WINDS... NORTHEAST 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH. * VISIBILITIES... LESS THAN ONE-QUARTER MILE FOR SEVERAL HOURS. * TEMPERATURES... IN THE MID 20S. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A BLIZZARD WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW WITH STRONG WINDS AND POOR VISIBILITIES ARE LIKELY. THIS WILL LEAD TO WHITEOUT CONDITIONS... MAKING TRAVEL EXTREMELY DANGEROUS. DO NOT TRAVEL. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL... HAVE A WINTER SURVIVAL KIT WITH YOU. IF YOU GET STRANDED... STAY WITH YOUR VEHICLE. &&
More Information

... AN EXTREME SITUATION IS DEVELOPING FOR PORTIONS OF OUR AREA AS A MAJOR COASTAL STORM INTERRUPTS OUR USUAL DAILY ROUTINES ON TUESDAY... .A VERY STRONG WINTER STORM COULD BE LIFE THREATENING FOR THOSE WHO DO NOT PAY ATTENTION TO SAFETY PRECAUTIONS TUESDAY MORNING. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF THE CAROLINA COAST THIS EVENING WILL BECOME AN INTENSE STORM AS IT MOVES EAST OF NEW JERSEY MIDDAY TUESDAY. SWATHS OF EXCESSIVE PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND WEST OF THE TRACK OF THE STORM. NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY FOR A FEW HOURS IN EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NEW JERSEY WHERE SNOWFALL RATES OF 2 TO 4 INCHES PER HOUR ARE EXPECTED.

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10 minutes ago, Paragon said:

Chris, if I'm not mistaken our last two verified blizzards were Jan 2016 and Boxing Day 2010?  Jan 2016 was actually verified blizzard for six straight hours at JFK and Boxing Day 2010 was verified blizzard there too?

 

Boxing Day produced the biggest drifts in Long Beach for me since the Feb 78 blizzard. 

 

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