bluewave Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 1 minute ago, jm1220 said: How do the mid level lows track? I don't have access to maps. It's colder at all levels than the 12z RGEM, NAM, and UKMET. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 2 minutes ago, SnowBlitzkrieg said: Euro is a March 2001 level bust for most of LI. Kuchera map has barely 6 inches for Suffolk County. Use 10:1 map, gives you 15" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 1 minute ago, SnowBlitzkrieg said: Euro is a March 2001 level bust for most of LI. Kuchera map has barely 6 inches for Suffolk County. Those graphics tend to treat Suffolk County as part of the ocean. In any event, the writing has been on the wall for the last 24 hours that Long Island wasn't going to be all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Just now, bluewave said: It's colder at all levels than the 12z RGEM, NAM, and UKMET. Yeah it's 14"-16" here, I don't get the pessimism with this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowBlitzkrieg Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Just now, psv88 said: Use 10:1 map, gives you 15" yeah, the 10:1 map is great, but i'm afraid it won't be anywhere near 10:1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Yeah, per the Mid Atlantic thread EURO is best/coldest run in a while. good map at ~ 8am tomorrow 0 850 line still just south of PHL and into southern Ocean County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Just now, NJwx85 said: Those graphics tend to treat Suffolk County as part of the ocean. In any event, the writing has been on the wall for the last 24 hours that Long Island wasn't going to be all snow. Per Doug, go with 10:1, 12+ for all of LI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 5 minutes ago, bluewave said: It's colder than the 12Z UKMET That's a good to hear because the ukmet was close as well. Is it colder than the 0z Euro, if it is, that'll be a good sign. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 3 minutes ago, SnowBlitzkrieg said: Euro is a March 2001 level bust for most of LI. Kuchera map has barely 6 inches for Suffolk County. I would be wary about using any kind of snow map. That's why I'm asking about the mid level lows and temps in the column. If they trended in a better direction, that's what I care about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 1 minute ago, NJwx85 said: Those graphics tend to treat Suffolk County as part of the ocean. In any event, the writing has been on the wall for the last 24 hours that Long Island wasn't going to be all snow. It's 14"-16" for the south shore of western Nassau, which is still historic for mid March. Also, 3/01 didn't bust in Suffolk they got 16" lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowBlitzkrieg Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Just now, NJwx85 said: Those graphics tend to treat Suffolk County as part of the ocean. In any event, the writing has been on the wall for the last 24 hours that Long Island wasn't going to be all snow. the euro map on WB is usually fine. it's their GFS map that looks weird. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Just now, Manny said: That's a good to hear because the ukmet was close as well. Is it colder than the 0z Euro, if it is, that'll be a good sign. Yes, its better than the 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Just now, psv88 said: Per Doug, go with 10:1, 12+ for all of LI I'll stick with my origional prediction from this morning. 10-14" for the city and Western LI. 8-12" for E LI with a bit more in the usual spots on the North shore. I think Smithtown is right around 12". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Just now, NJwx85 said: I'll stick with my origional prediction from this morning. 10-14" for the city and Western LI. 8-12" for E LI with a bit more in the usual spots on the North shore. I think Smithtown is right around 12". What's your basis for 10-14 for the city? That's less than all guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Just now, Drz1111 said: What's your basis for 10-14 for the city? That's less than all guidance. I thought his prediction was 12-18 just a few hours ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 1 minute ago, Paragon said: It's 14"-16" for the south shore of western Nassau, which is still historic for mid March. Also, 3/01 didn't bust in Suffolk they got 16" lol 2 minutes ago, SnowBlitzkrieg said: the euro map on WB is usually fine. it's their GFS map that looks weird. A lot of the times those snow maps are highly innacurate for Long Island. I like 10-14" for Nassau and 8-12" for Suffolk with some higher amounts on the North shore of Suffolk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Just now, Paragon said: I thought his prediction was 12-18 just a few hours ago. Yes you're correct, I meant 12-18" for the city. I think I had 12-18" for Nassau before but I think it might come in on the lower end of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: A lot of the times those snow maps are highly innacurate for Long Island. I like 10-14" for Nassau and 8-12" for Suffolk with some higher amounts on the North shore of Suffolk. It's going to be an interesting competition between the SW part of Nassau and the north shore of Suffolk; in these kinds of scenarios, the south shore of western Nassau can do better than the north shore of Suffolk, because we're further west. I'm less than 4 miles east of JFK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 3 minutes ago, jm1220 said: I would be wary about using any kind of snow map. That's why I'm asking about the mid level lows and temps in the column. If they trended in a better direction, that's what I care about. At about what point do these models become less useful? The storm is set to start tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILoveWinter Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 3 minutes ago, psv88 said: Yes, its better than the 0z Does NYC taint this run? Have not heard anything definitive regarding that (or where the mid levels tracked for that matter) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 2 minutes ago, Drz1111 said: What's your basis for 10-14 for the city? That's less than all guidance. I had 12-18" for the city, made a mistake. If I had to pick an exact number I'd go with 14". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 7 minutes ago, Paragon said: Yeah it's 14"-16" here, I don't get the pessimism with this run. It's not quite as tucked in as the other models were as the LP misses Eastern LI and tracks near Block Island. The winds continue to be really impressive over LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Just now, weatherpruf said: At about what point do these models become less useful? The storm is set to start tonight. This is the last run I'd really look at models outside of short range like HRRR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Just now, bluewave said: It's not quite as tucked in as the other models were and the LP misses Eastern LI and tracks near Block Island. The winds continue to be really impressive over LI. Can you post the surface wind gusts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 10-14 is a good call for the city. We won't really know for sure where the deformation bands setup until the storm gets closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 1 minute ago, NJwx85 said: Yes you're correct, I meant 12-18" for the city. I think I had 12-18" for Nassau before but I think it might come in on the lower end of that. It's a good call, 14" for this area looks decent. 12" might make it to the Nassau/Suffolk line.....I think this will be one of those scenarios where the further west you are the better (regardless of being north or south.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 2 minutes ago, Paragon said: It's going to be an interesting competition between the SW part of Nassau and the north shore of Suffolk; in these kinds of scenarios, the south shore of western Nassau can do better than the north shore of Suffolk, because we're further west. I'm less than 4 miles east of JFK. We probably end up around the same. I'm cautiously optimistic we make it to 10", again I'd be thrilled with a storm like this if we went over 12". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 5 hours ago, NJwx85 said: Here's my final call. 12-18" in NYC proper and immediate surrounding areas. Remember that strong winds, possible mixing and approaching dry slot will limit totals somewhat. Still a historic storm for the coast in March. 10-14" for Eastern Nassau and Western Suffolk County. 8-12" for the rest of Long Island with possibly 10-14" in the usual North shore spots. I like a general 12-18" for most of Central NJ, north of 195 till about Rt. 78. North of 78 and West of the GSP in NJ I like a general 18-24" with a few localized 24-30" amounts in the elevated areas of NW NJ and then up into Orange County. Otherwise North of 84 I like a general 18-24". For Northeast PA I like 12-18" with a few isolated areas >18" possible in the higher terrain. For the area from about Philly to Trenton I like 8-12" with isolated areas of 12-18" North of Philly in the hill country. Overall a historic storm for the time of year. Very strong winds will cause coastal flooding, possible power outages and white out conditions for a period tomorrow morning into early afternoon. Comes in as a wall of snow around 2-3AM. Height of the storm is from about 6AM to 2PM. Should be all gone by about 6-7PM except for a few lingering snow showers. This was from like 9AM. I still think it's a good forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 3 minutes ago, jm1220 said: This is the last run I'd really look at models outside of short range like HRRR. The ensembles have already become useless lol (just look at how the 12z GEFS members were bunched up together.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 2 minutes ago, jm1220 said: We probably end up around the same. I'm cautiously optimistic we make it to 10", again I'd be thrilled with a storm like this if we went over 12". I could see the North shore of Suffolk staying mostly snow while areas like the Hamptons pour rain tomorrow afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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