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March 13 - 15 Major Winter Storm Potential


NEG NAO

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3 minutes ago, NYCGreg said:

Not trying to doubt you, but the NYC area gets up to nearly 36 degrees when most of the precipitation falls.  The ratios - even if snow - would be about as bad as it gets.

You're right if it happens like the Ukie shows.  The island would have some issues too briefly.

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18 minutes ago, swamplover56 said:

If euro comes in like cmc rgem and ukie they prob go 16-22 or 18-24 if models begin coming into a consensus of a NYC lhv nnj jackpot you have to put the word out travel will be impossible and extremely dangerous. People die stranded in their cars 

Agreed but I think the hold at 12-18" and don't up until tomorrow afternoon if needed 

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I doubt the NWS forecasters are going to get their judgement from the Ukie.

 


Brother rgem and Ukmet are warm for most of LI and on the doorstep of nyc. They may hold off on a warning upgrade. Let's see what the euro says, with its better resolution.

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-N920A using Tapatalk

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1 minute ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

I don't buy that. And if it verifys the the worst case for power outages. Paste and very very high winds are not a good combo

What aren't you buying?  The thermal profile, the location of the storm, or both?  Don't mean to bombard you with questions, but you seem like one of the more knowledgeable posters here.

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1 minute ago, USCG RS said:


Brother rgem and Ukmet are warm for most of LI and on the doorstep of nyc. They may hold off on a warning upgrade. Let's see what the euro says, with its better resolution.

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-N920A using Tapatalk
 

you can get a blizzard warning with 2 inches of snow, it has nothing to do with snow amounts.

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you can get a blizzard warning with 2 inches of snow, it has nothing to do with snow amounts.


I am very aware of that. What I am saying is this does not quite look set in stone yet. I still. Believe we correct East a bit, but before issuing a Blizzard Warning, they may wait one cycle with the temp profiles and how tucked in these models are beginning to show. That being said, the Euro has the better resolution.

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Billy....are you awake and online? 8 minutes until EURO initialization, and pbp. Crazy thing is I'm not even a superstitious person, and sometimes catch myself yelling at people who are. That said...who am I to interfere with what's been working for us :) ...and your pbp for the overnight EURO runs the previous 2 nights have done wonders!!!

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