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March 13 - 15 Major Winter Storm Potential


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1 minute ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

I hate to say it but we're at the point now where I'm going to be bummed with anything less than 15 inches and even that isn't going to thrill me.

See, when I see 30" and 40" totals printed out, I don't think "yay, we're getting 30 inches." I think "nice, even half of that leaves room for an awesome storm". I'll take 15" and run. 

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MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1250 AM EDT MON MAR 13 2017

VALID MAR 13/0000 UTC THRU MAR 16/1200 UTC

...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR
INGEST...

...AN EVALUATION OF THE 00Z NAM/GFS ALONG WITH PRELIMINARY
PREFERENCES/FORECAST CONFIDENCE...


...SHORTWAVE QUICKLY EXITING THE NEW ENGLAND COAST...

PRELIMINARY PREFERENCE: GENERAL MODEL COMPROMISE
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH

MODEST HEIGHT FALLS PULLING AWAY FROM THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ARE
WELL AGREED UPON BY RECENT MODEL GUIDANCE. THUS...A GENERAL MODEL
COMPROMISE IS RECOMMENDED.


...LEAD HEIGHT FALLS CURRENTLY PUSHING THROUGH THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...
...EVOLVING NEGATIVELY-TILTED TROUGH LIFTING FROM THE CAROLINAS TO
NEW ENGLAND ON TUESDAY...
...RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING COASTAL LOW AFFECTING THE EASTERN
SEABOARD ON TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...
...NORTHERN STREAM UPPER LOW/ATTENDANT SURFACE CYCLONE...

PRELIMINARY PREFERENCE: BLEND OF THE 00Z GFS/12Z ECMWF
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE

A COMBINATION OF ACTIVE JET STREAMS COUPLED WITH INTENSE SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL SET THE STAGES FOR A
HEAVY SNOWFALL EVENT FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC INTO NEW ENGLAND.
FIRST...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TONIGHT SHOWS A DECENT CYCLONIC SWIRL
MOVING THROUGH EASTERN NEB WITH THE SHORTWAVE CONTINUING TO DIG ON
ITS APPROACH TO THE CAROLINAS ROUGHLY 24 HOURS FROM NOW. ON THE
QUICKER SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE WERE THE 12Z
CMC/GFS-PARALLEL...PARTICULARLY BY 14/0600Z. THESE NOTED
DIFFERENCES SEEM TO BE SOMEWHAT OFFSET BY SOME ADJUSTMENTS MADE AS
THE SHORTWAVE ABRUPTLY LIFTS NORTHWARD ALONG THE DELMARVA TO LOWER
NEW ENGLAND COAST. CONSIDERING THE COASTAL LOW TRACK...THERE IS
STILL SOME SPREAD WHICH REMAINS ALTHOUGH IT HAS REDUCED RELATIVE
TO RECENT MODEL CYCLES. THE CENTER OF THE ENSEMBLE CLUSTER
GENERALLY CROSSES THE INFAMOUS 40N/70W BENCHMARK AROUND 15/0000Z
WITH A FEW CAMPS EVIDENT. THE ECMWF MEMBERS CONTINUE TO BE SLOWER
AND DISPLACED SLIGHTLY TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST OF THE QUICKER GEFS
ENSEMBLES. WHILE INCONSISTENT RUN TO RUN...THE CMC ENSEMBLES SEEMS
TO SIT SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN THIS PAIR. CONSIDERING THE TRACK
DEPICTED BY INDIVIDUAL DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS...THE 12Z CMC/UKMET
PAINT THE TRACK CLOSEST TO THE COAST WHICH IS ON THE FAR WEST SIDE
OF THE 90-MEMBER ENSEMBLE SPREAD. TO SOME EXTENT...THE 00Z NAM
MIMICS THIS SOLUTION WHILE STRENGTHENING LOW LIFTS TOWARD COASTAL
MA BY 15/0000Z. WHILE THE 00Z GFS/12Z GFS-PARALLEL AND 12Z ECMWF
DO DIFFER...THEY HAVE BEEN REASONABLY CONSISTENT ON A RUN-TO-RUN
BASIS. AS SUCH...WILL RESPECT THAT AND INCORPORATE THEIR SOLUTIONS
INTO THE BLEND. UNTIL ADDITIONAL GUIDANCE ARRIVES...THE PREFERENCE
WILL BE AN EQUAL BLEND OF THE 00Z GFS/12Z ECMWF.

REGARDING THE NORTHERN STREAM UPPER LOW SWINGING FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TO THE MID-ATLANTIC THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...THE ECMWF AND
A VAST MAJORITY OF ITS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS HAVE BEEN MORE AMPLIFIED
COMPARED TO OTHER GLOBAL MODELS. THIS HAS REMAINED IN THE FORECAST
THE PAST FOUR MODEL CYCLES WHICH SUGGESTS ITS AT LEAST BEEN
CONSISTENT. THE MORE NORTHWARD SOLUTION SHOWN BY THE 00Z GFS IS
AGREED UPON BY THE LATEST 00Z NAM. FOR NOW WILL JUST SPLIT BETWEEN
THE PAIR OF SCENARIOS. THE BLEND WILL BE THE SAME AS THE ABOVE
COASTAL SYSTEM.


...WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING THE GULF OF CA/SEA OF CORTEZ BY
MID-WEEK...

PRELIMINARY PREFERENCE: GENERAL MODEL COMPROMISE
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE

A CLOSED 582-DM MID-LEVEL RIDGE INITIALLY ANCHORED OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN U.S. WILL ADVANCE EASTWARD IN RESPONSE TO WEAK HEIGHT
FALLS COMING OUT OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THERE ARE TIMING
DIFFERENCES WITH THE 00Z NAM A BIT AHEAD OF THE REST OF THE PACK.
GIVEN THE FACT MOST OF THE UNCERTAINTY IS ON THE MESOSCALE
COMBINED WITH A LIMITED INFLUENCE ON THE SENSIBLE WEATHER...WILL
LEAN TOWARD A GENERAL MODEL COMPROMISE HERE.


...AMPLIFYING TROUGH AFFECTING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST/UPPER
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST BY WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY...
...APPROACHING SURFACE LOW/PACIFIC FRONTS...

PRELIMINARY PREFERENCE: BLEND OF THE 00Z GFS/18Z GEFS MEAN
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE

MEAN RIDGING ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
14/1200Z BEFORE UPSTREAM HEIGHT FALLS TRACK INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST BY THE FOLLOWING DAY. LIKE YESTERDAY...THE 12Z CMC CAME
IN QUICKER WITH THE ADDITIONAL MID-LEVEL FORCING AS IT TRACKS INTO
SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
ADDITIONALLY...THE 12Z ECMWF HAS CONTINUED TO BE FASTER WITH THE
OVERALL EVOLUTION WHICH INCLUDES THE TIMING OF THE INCOMING
PACIFIC FRONT. WHILE LARGE-SCALE SPREAD SEEMED ON THE LOWER SIDE
BASED ON EVALUATION OF THE ENSEMBLE SPAGHETTI PLOTS...THERE ARE
PLENTY OF DIFFERENCES COMPARING DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS FROM ONE
ANOTHER. WILL STICK CLOSER TO THE 00Z GFS/18Z GEFS MEAN HERE UNTIL
FURTHER GUIDANCE ARRIVES.

www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml...

www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml...

RUBIN-OSTER

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Just now, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

Um yeah. All I've seen is maps of 20-30 inches for the last 2 days. So yeah a foot of snow would not do it for me right now, I've already had one 14 inch storm this year so if this somehow came up short of that I'd be disappointed for sure.

Oh Jeez dude it's the middle of march.  Not too often do you see a foot of snow this time of year.

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1 minute ago, Neblizzard said:

Oh Jeez dude it's the middle of march.  Not too often do you see a foot of snow this time of year.

I agree with Cantmeasuresnow. Anything less than a foot at this point would be a major disappointment. Of course a foot is great for march...but at this point...it'd be a clear letdown

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1 minute ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

Um yeah. All I've seen is maps of 20-30 inches for the last 2 days. So yeah a foot of snow would not do it for me right now, I've already had one 14 inch storm this year so if this somehow came up short of that I'd be disappointed for sure.

Man, this really isnt how you wanna look at this storm. You get a foot, thats insane as is given that its mid-March. You get two feet, even better. But the amounts arent what matters. Stop stressing over 5 inches here and there and realize that this is a once or twice in a century type of storm and that YOU lived during it. That's a message to everyone. Be happy. Calm down. Enjoy this beast! 

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1 minute ago, Neblizzard said:

Oh Jeez dude it's the middle of march.  Not too often do you see a foot of snow this time of year.

Not sure where your located but a foot of snow in the middle of March in the HV is not that big a deal. If you're in NYC LI or the Jersey shore I could see where it would be.

Now 20 plus, that's a big deal.

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5 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

But is the Ukmet cold enough? 

NYC gets to about 0 at 850 at hour 42.  Maybe a little mixing ? But mostly all snow.

 

Edit.  My apologies it was tough to see at first.  Zooming in we are at -2 C,  so it's all snow for NYC.

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Just now, sferic said:

Any guesses as to what Upton does with current snow predictions at 4AM?

If euro comes in like cmc rgem and ukie they prob go 16-22 or 18-24 if models begin coming into a consensus of a NYC lhv nnj jackpot you have to put the word out travel will be impossible and extremely dangerous. People die stranded in their cars 

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1 minute ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

Not sure where your located but a foot of snow in the middle of March in the HV is not that big a deal. If you're in NYC LI or the Jersey shore I could see where it would be.

Now 20 plus, that's a big deal.

This I agree with 100%. Some of these guys down there don't realize that.

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