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March 13 - 15 Major Winter Storm Potential


NEG NAO

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Unless, you're a purist, you'd be rooting for a scenario like this.  The really big ones can change to rain or mix for a time and still deliver 20"+

So what do you want...... 12-18 inches with no taint or 24+ inches with a little taint mixed in? I'd take the latter.

Although last year was the best, no taint and 30+ inches of snow haha.

 



Would prefer the Euro solution to last year's blizzard. Idk, last year's blizzard didn't feel as epic as the measurements made it seem. No thundersnow. Don't think Central Park even verified as a blizzard. This solution likely would. Didn't look as impressive the day after either...high ratio snow compresses very easily.
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1 minute ago, Rittenhouse said:

 


Would prefer the Euro solution to last year's blizzard. Idk, last year's blizzard didn't feel as epic as the measurements made it seem. No thundersnow. Don't think Central Park even verified as a blizzard. This solution likely would. Didn't look as impressive the day after either...high ratio snow compresses very easily.

 

I think you want to see a redux of March 1888 lol

It did verify as a blizzard at JFK but I see what you mean.  Also, the cold only lasted a few days and this time we might actually be getting another significant snowstorm on top of it.  Crazy!

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Let me ask you guys a question , are these numbers actually possible ? We have seen models spit out crazy numbers before and MANY times we were real disappointed ! I mean you guys that have been on here a long time or forgot more than I will ever know , can PA really hit 40 inches and can North and West really hit 30 ? If this all comes to be IM IN!

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3/12 12Z Guidance Summary:

 

QPF / SNow range NYC area

 

SREF: 1.30 - 1.55 / 10 - 18"

NAM:  1.00 /  6 - 12"

PNAM: 1.70 - 1.95 /  15 - 22"

RGEM: 1.65 - 1.80 / 10 - 18" 

GFS: 0.85 - 1.15 / 8 - 12"

GEFS:
GGM:  2.35 / 18 - 22"

UKMET: 2.30 / 18 -24"
JMA: 1.25 - 1.55 / 12 - 18 "

ECM: 1.90 - 2.23 : 18 - 25"
EPS:

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1 minute ago, Brasiluvsnow said:

Let me ask you guys a question , are these numbers actually possible ? We have seen models spit out crazy numbers before and MANY times we were real disappointed ! I mean you guys that have been on here a long time or forgot more than I will ever know , can PA really hit 40 inches and can North and West really hit 30 ? If this all comes to be IM IN!

Of course it can happen. Ive been in Orange county for 20 yrs and Ive seen 24"+ amounts many times here

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4 minutes ago, Rittenhouse said:

 


Would prefer the Euro solution to last year's blizzard. Idk, last year's blizzard didn't feel as epic as the measurements made it seem. No thundersnow. Don't think Central Park even verified as a blizzard. This solution likely would. Didn't look as impressive the day after either...high ratio snow compresses very easily.

 

well it was epic kennedy had 30 inches so it was not just a central park storm and the wind was strong in the morning tapered after that..it was a fluffy snow which i prefer to the heavy wet stuff :)

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1 minute ago, nycwinter said:

well it was epic kennedy had 30 inches so it was not just a central park storm and the wind was strong in the morning tapered after that..it was a fluffy snow which i prefer to the heavy wet stuff :)

also extremely long duration somewhere between 30-36 hours

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2 minutes ago, Brasiluvsnow said:

Let me ask you guys a question , are these numbers actually possible ? We have seen models spit out crazy numbers before and MANY times we were real disappointed ! I mean you guys that have been on here a long time or forgot more than I will ever know , can PA really hit 40 inches and can North and West really hit 30 ? If this all comes to be IM IN!

It's not even about the numbers. Yea, most of the metro area looks like it's going to receive 1-2' of snow with even more NW of the city.  That's historic for this time of the year.   But it's everything else too.   The coastal flooding, the very strong winds and the incredible dynamics.  This might be truly one for the ages.  

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1 minute ago, snywx said:

Of course it can happen. Ive been in Orange county for 20 yrs and Ive seen 24"+ amounts many times here

SNY I live in Rockland 20 years and have seen some big snows as well , maybe I should say are these # 's just too good to be true is there something that everyone is possibly missing , I know its only model runs and take each for what they are worth but we are talking 40 inches in PA ? Or is there a first time for everything,,I hope its the latter

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1 minute ago, Brasiluvsnow said:

SNY I live in Rockland 20 years and have seen some big snows as well , maybe I should say are these # 's just too good to be true is there something that everyone is possibly missing , I know its only model runs and take each for what they are worth but we are talking 40 inches in PA ? Or is there a first time for everything,,I hope its the latter

With the exception being the Sierras/Cascades or the LES snowbelts this is a rarity regardless of the location

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6 minutes ago, Rjay said:

"Nemo" in 2013.  

There were people stranded in their car for hours on the LIE. Some ended up suffering hypothermia and were taken to the hospital. They had to use snowmobile to rescue some of them. Stay home during a storm like this folks. If not for a critical emergency, stay home.

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7 minutes ago, Paragon said:

Unless, you're a purist, you'd be rooting for a scenario like this.  The really big ones can change to rain or mix for a time and still deliver 20"+

So what do you want...... 12-18 inches with no taint or 24+ inches with a little taint mixed in? I'd take the latter.

Although last year was the best, no taint and 30+ inches of snow haha.

 

Part of it's also the coastal flood aspect. The beaches will get wrecked for sure with a low right off the NJ coast. I'd have to think winds gust to 60-70 mph.

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Last January dropped a 31 spot on my house in Chester. Most I've experienced side '96. 

I don't recall seeing that storm being as modeled as intense as what the Euro just did. 

We're getting closer; enjoy the journey. More model runs to go, all will have differences. Don't jump to extremes. Personally, I'm hoping we all get smoked. 

Happy hunting!

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1 minute ago, David-LI said:

There were people stranded in the car for hours on the LIE. Some ended up suffering hypothermia and were taken to the hospital. They had to use snowmobile to rescue some of them. Stay home during a storm like this folks. If not for a critical emergency, stay home.

That storm was pretty isolated though, once west of Suffolk County it was about a foot of snow

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