Blizzardo Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 And with the winds.. just plan on a 10:1 ratio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Nams gonna be a beast, really digs hour 60 and precip starts to explode Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Is that an early capture of the GoM energy? That's an interesting way to get a blizzard... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Major CCB over NNJ and Hudson valley hr 72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 The NAM looks slower with the NS energy and stronger with the SS energy... more Euro-like. 12z 06z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Just now, TriPol said: Is that an early capture of the GoM energy? That's an interesting way to get a blizzard... Some of the big ones had that. We can get training moisture from the gulf which I dont know we are really picking up on that this time out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Definitely goes to rain for a time for many but over 2" liquid Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Nam crushes Hudson valley, NEPA, and NWNJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JERSEYSNOWROB Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Winter weather expert on Weather channel keeps insisting we see a ton of rain down here due to the NE winds. Doubt it. We may see 'some' rain/sleet mix in at times but even if it does we should still be good for a solid 12-18 inches. I think they had Monmouth in the 6-12 inch band. No way!! Hahaha 1-2 feet region wide is a good call in my opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said: Definitely goes to rain for a time for many but over 2" liquid For a time? Lol rainstorm. And it's been money, this is worrysome IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
F5TornadoF5 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 NAM looks like the western extreme of all the models. Still well out of its range. Onto GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 1 minute ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Nam crushes Hudson valley, NEPA, and NWNJ Amazing run. Wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Nam is starting to get a clue but anything post 48 hrs on this model can't be taken too seriously. But at least this run gets a lot closer to where the models lie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 omg it's the end of range nam and it looks nothing like every other model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Nam comes east imo... I like where euro is currently as best option Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 1 minute ago, F5TornadoF5 said: NAM looks like the western extreme of all the models. Still well out of its range. Onto GFS NAM has been stellar . If it showed this at 48-60 hours then i would be concerned somewhat. 72-78 hours is still out of its range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Just now, forkyfork said: omg it's the end of range nam and it looks nothing like every other model Nobody was soliciting it as truth... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 City is actually mostly rain on the NAM verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 2 minutes ago, Neblizzard said: NAM has been stellar . If it showed this at 48-60 hours then i would be concerned somewhat. 72-78 hours is still out of its range. Didn't we say that last January though? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kpantz Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Looking through the total QPF and accumulation maps on Pivotal for the 84 hour period reveals something interesting northwest of I-95 - loss of snow (0.5" LE) to freezing rain in the Tuesday morning hours (which doesn't really make a lot of sense, synoptically speaking). Based on this, I'd push the model snowfall output higher. But it's the NAM, so... Total QPF: Total Snow (10:1): Total FZRA: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 2 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Didn't we say that last January though? but the nam was locked in model run after model run that has not been the case this time... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 2 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Nam comes east imo... I like where euro is currently as best option This, and with the EPS mean planted on the benchmark too. I'd ride the Euro for this one, especially since southern energy is involved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 4 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Didn't we say that last January though? but the nam was locked in model run after model run that has not been the case this time...even a blind squirrel can find a nut once in a while...:P Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 1 minute ago, nycwinter said: but the nam was locked in model run after model run that has not been the case this time... Well not yet it's only just coming into range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 3 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Well not yet it's only just coming into range Well doesn't the NAM have a warm and amped up bias anyways? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metasequoia Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 NAM came east (and stronger) from 6Z run FWIW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 6 minutes ago, allgame830 said: Well doesn't the NAM have a warm and amped up bias anyways? When it shows rain ;-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 3 minutes ago, Metasequoia said: NAM came east (and stronger) from 6Z run FWIW. Great comparison! Yet less snow/more rain and further inland on the 12Z NAM for some reason - hmmmm.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 12z NAM @ hr 75.. Pure weather porn for the interior folk! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 25 minutes ago, forkyfork said: omg it's the end of range nam and it looks nothing like every other model Exactly. That's the biggest take home it looks nothing like the other models. Yes it's been good this winter and I'll give it valifidty inside 48h. as it stands right now a track right inside the benchmark looks like the best bet. I wouldn't want to be east of central Suffolk with that track. West of there a 1-2' snow looks greater then 75% likely now. Exact totals and coastal impacts are what we should focus on from here out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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