motsco Posted March 15, 2017 Share Posted March 15, 2017 hour 8781 shows a hecs! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 15, 2017 Share Posted March 15, 2017 Euro op had an inv trough look with the vort passage this weekend. A tenth or 2 of precip falls overnight Saturday with good mids and bad surface. I didn't mention it because its a small scale feature that probably poofs. The next week deal on the euro op has the mids outrunning precip and it's light either way. EPS is improved with chances of frozen. A lot of members showing front end snow with a nw low track. Track underneath with bigger hits is still there but looks like consensus is moving towards nw track. Very cold late March air in place before anything happens. We won't know if anything has legs there for at least 3-4 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted March 16, 2017 Share Posted March 16, 2017 The last day of runs have been somewhat Blah. GFS and GEFS moved toward the Euro overnight for the weekend but that is the only good news in regards to that. We needed to see the trends continue on the Euro that we had seen over a few runs but they stopped over the last day and actually degraded a touch. At this point it looks as if development of the Miller B will be too slow and out to sea to effect anyone except possibly some extreme eastern coastal regions to the north. As the upper level energy swings through we may luck into a little something but that will probably be about it. As far as the day 9/10 potential. It is still there. Overnight run of the EPS actually came in a little stronger with the trough in the east as well as the low to our south/southeast. Would like to see the -NAO west based or at least neutral instead of east based to better position the 50/50. But it is what it is. We did see a very noticeable decrease with the EPS snowfall means for this possibly event though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted March 16, 2017 Share Posted March 16, 2017 snow chances seem to be diminishing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted March 16, 2017 Share Posted March 16, 2017 10 minutes ago, mdsnowlover said: i maybe wrong but by euro there is no snow next weekend, correct? The Euro shows trace amounts through the full 10 days, Eps has through day 11 (through possible storm) a 2 inch mean through Balt/DC and 3 around the PA/MD line. Full 16 day EPS snowfall mean only goes up slightly from the 11 day means. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted March 16, 2017 Share Posted March 16, 2017 8 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: The Euro shows trace amounts through the full 10 days, Eps has through day 11 (through possible storm) a 2 inch mean through Balt/DC and 3 around the PA/MD line. Full 16 day EPS snowfall mean only goes up slightly from the 11 day means. thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted March 16, 2017 Share Posted March 16, 2017 Euro has a low exiting off the Outer Banks at 72, 850s too warm for most of the area. I'm assuming this doesn't have a chance? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 16, 2017 Share Posted March 16, 2017 1 hour ago, DCTeacherman said: Euro has a low exiting off the Outer Banks at 72, 850s too warm for most of the area. I'm assuming this doesn't have a chance? I wouldnt be shocked to see some snow showers in the western burbs from that setup actually. The GFS has the weak vort close to passing under us as well. After that, if the Eps and Gefs are correct, winter is over imo. Bring on the torch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted March 16, 2017 Share Posted March 16, 2017 17 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: I wouldnt be shocked to see some snow showers in the western burbs from that setup actually. The GFS has the weak vort close to passing under us as well. After that, if the Eps and Gefs are correct, winter is over imo. Bring on the torch. If this is a torch...im in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted March 16, 2017 Share Posted March 16, 2017 What's the forecast for LA Crosse Wisconsin for next week...I will be there all week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted March 16, 2017 Share Posted March 16, 2017 14 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: What's the forecast for LA Crosse Wisconsin for next week...I will be there all week. looks like low 40s/low 20s and kind of dry early in the week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 16, 2017 Share Posted March 16, 2017 19 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: What's the forecast for LA Crosse Wisconsin for next week...I will be there all week. Sleety. Dry but sleety Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted March 16, 2017 Share Posted March 16, 2017 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Sleety. Dry but sleety I think we have all seen enough sleet to last us for a lifetime. still if offered a redux of Monday night I would take it gladly. Frozen is always good in my book. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 16, 2017 Share Posted March 16, 2017 18 minutes ago, BristowWx said: I think we have all seen enough sleet to last us for a lifetime. still if offered a redux of Monday night I would take it gladly. Frozen is always good in my book. This winter was definitely sleety the entire time and most fittingly left big piles of sleet in our yards to confirm how sleety it's been Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 16, 2017 Share Posted March 16, 2017 1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said: Any severe threats on table? #wedges There's a severe threat to Winwxluvr's bracket going on right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 16, 2017 Share Posted March 16, 2017 Anyone see the new 12z euro that just came out? Takes what was the New England system and now sweeps it across our region overnight Saturday into Sunday then into a coastal. Looks cold at least from 850 and up. Surface looks a bit warm but storm track certainly shifted over us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted March 16, 2017 Share Posted March 16, 2017 9 minutes ago, ers-wxman1 said: Anyone see the new 12z euro that just came out? Takes what was the New England system and now sweeps it across our region overnight Saturday into Sunday then into a coastal. Looks cold at least from 850 and up. Surface looks a bit warm but storm track certainly shifted over us. I had been following it for the last couple days but at this point it looks to develop to late for our region. Still 2 1/2 -3 days out so you never know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted March 16, 2017 Share Posted March 16, 2017 11 minutes ago, ers-wxman1 said: Anyone see the new 12z euro that just came out? Takes what was the New England system and now sweeps it across our region overnight Saturday into Sunday then into a coastal. Looks cold at least from 850 and up. Surface looks a bit warm but storm track certainly shifted over us. Sounds like a dramatic shift south. although not sure where it was 0z. I could do one more round. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted March 16, 2017 Share Posted March 16, 2017 Just now, BristowWx said: Sounds like a dramatic shift south. although not sure where it was 0z. I could do one more round. Nah, it's about the same as it has been for several runs now at 500mb and the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted March 16, 2017 Share Posted March 16, 2017 Just now, showmethesnow said: Nah, it's about the same as it has been for several runs now at 500mb and the surface. where does the vort pass? how far south? just curious Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted March 16, 2017 Share Posted March 16, 2017 1 minute ago, BristowWx said: where does the vort pass? how far south? just curious Down through central Pa and then E MD before it pulls out to sea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted March 16, 2017 Share Posted March 16, 2017 6 minutes ago, BristowWx said: where does the vort pass? how far south? just curious Preferably we would want to see that drop to the west and then underneath or even possibly through our region.. Probably doesn't matter though because the upper levels are lagging behind the surface anyway causing a late developing Miller B. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 16, 2017 Share Posted March 16, 2017 Euro stripes the WV panhandle with nearly 1" of precip. Surface mitigates accums but it would still be more than a minor event out there. Eta: by minor I mean little to no accums. Would probably be 2-3" of wet snow if it falls fast enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 16, 2017 Share Posted March 16, 2017 5 hours ago, pasnownut said: If this is a torch...im in. Didnt say it WAS a torch. I said bring on the torch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 16, 2017 Share Posted March 16, 2017 3 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: Preferably we would want to see that drop to the west and then underneath or even possibly through our region.. Probably doesn't matter though because the upper levels are lagging behind the surface anyway causing a late developing Miller B. Yesterday the track was north over the Northeast and New England. Coastal development is east but south of where it was yesterday. I recall briefing a New England storm at 8 am yesterday. Not that it's ideal for us but I think a decent shift south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted March 16, 2017 Share Posted March 16, 2017 6 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: Didnt say it WAS a torch. I said bring on the torch. Yes you did but you forgot a bit.... "After that, if the Eps and Gefs are correct, winter is over imo. Bring on the torch. " Not looking to argue, but that to me implied that your view of the ensembles was saying winter was over. I was just not seeing the same thing in the ensembles. If you took a gander at the 12z GFS at 384 (i do for enjoyment purposes)....if verified.....your might want your torch for your bedroom....to keep you warm. all good. Carry on. Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 16, 2017 Share Posted March 16, 2017 6 minutes ago, pasnownut said: Yes you did but you forgot a bit.... "After that, if the Eps and Gefs are correct, winter is over imo. Bring on the torch. " Not looking to argue, but that to me implied that your view of the ensembles was saying winter was over. I was just not seeing the same thing in the ensembles. If you took a gander at the 12z GFS at 384 (i do for enjoyment purposes)....if verified.....your might want your torch for your bedroom....to keep you warm. all good. Carry on. Nut Yep. Poor wording. Good enough. How about screw this horrid excuse for a winter and bring on the torch? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 16, 2017 Share Posted March 16, 2017 48 minutes ago, ers-wxman1 said: Yesterday the track was north over the Northeast and New England. Coastal development is east but south of where it was yesterday. I recall briefing a New England storm at 8 am yesterday. Not that it's ideal for us but I think a decent shift south. We would need another shift about equal to what's already taken place but it's closer that's for sure. That inverted trough being indicated on a lot of guidance could be a fun feature also but good luck pinning that down. Maybe it will go Palm Sunday 1942 on us. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted March 16, 2017 Share Posted March 16, 2017 20 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: We would need another shift about equal to what's already taken place but it's closer that's for sure. That inverted trough being indicated on a lot of guidance could be a fun feature also but good luck pinning that down. Maybe it will go Palm Sunday 1942 on us. lol Was just reading up on that last week--Now what the heck happened with that one, anyway? (Other than primitive meteorology and such, haha) I mean, that had to be incredible! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted March 16, 2017 Share Posted March 16, 2017 49 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: Yep. Poor wording. Good enough. How about screw this horrid excuse for a winter and bring on the torch? Can't argue that for a second. We did ok up here but 6 hrs of sleet killed my totals. And one storm does not a winter make IMO. Hope you guys get one before we truly torch. Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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