stormtracker Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 1 minute ago, H2O said: 6z had the Lp off Cape May at 102 and the 12z is west of Dover same timeframe. its cutting it awfully close. This is the closest we can afford at this point. Again, we have to accept some degree of mixing risk down here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Moisture Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 This did nudge west...great run but the wiggle room is gone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 1.5 QPF for dc, so even if we mixed and lost 0.5 to sleet/rain it's still a big event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 1 minute ago, Always in Zugzwang said: Sounds very reminiscent of the Feb. 2014 storm, almost all the snow fell overnight in a fairly concentrated period of time, but when it did...wow! Agree, the timing is very similar. We were getting bombed at 2am in 2014. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Just now, stormtracker said: Pretty sure that the weather gods aren't concerned with thread making on a weather board. Sometimes I wonder. The only real difference with the 6z/12z gfs was the northern stream was a little slower. This helped tuck the low closer. Still a giant hit so no big deal but a tucked tracked seems like our worst case scenario now and even that would come with a good dump of snow up front before the column gets messy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Storm track is weird on the GFS. Coastal goes due north from wilmington to DE then a sharp right turn ENE next frame. it sees the confluence to the north way later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: Sometimes I wonder. The only real difference with the 6z/12z gfs was the northern stream was a little slower. This helped tuck the low closer. Still a giant hit so no big deal but a tucked tracked seems like our worst case scenario now and even that would come with a good dump of snow up front before the column gets messy. Well, if it's any comfort, everybody (PHL, NYC and BOS) mixes or even changes to plain rain on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Z-Cast Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 This trend W needs to stop- else this thing will turn into an Apps runner. With that said, take solace in the fact the GFS is the furthest W solution so far with the Euro/CMC being further E. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Def a "large" west shift from 6Z putting even western MD in mixing jeopardy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Just now, stormtracker said: Well, if it's any comforts, everybody (PHL, NYC and BOS) mixes or even changes to plain rain on this run. Nope... I just care about our Backyards Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snjókoma Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Even though the midlevels may be dicey the surface is nice here.. never gets above freezing and looks like 29-31 throughout the thump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 If the track is going to tuck, our latitude is actually a savior for once. We maximize the antecedent airmass as the storm is bombing. Mixing is far from the end of the world in that scenario.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ohwxguy Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 A little nervous looking at this for DC, but it is what it is. Certainly there will be adjustments over the next 84 hours with the respect to the track & thermal profile, but that's a lot of moisture! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 1 minute ago, H2O said: Storm track is weird on the GFS. Coastal goes due north from wilmington to DE then a sharp right turn ENE next frame. it sees the confluence to the north way later. would like to see some east solutions now. also I noticed the NS was further north again...or maybe just stronger and slower...either way it didn't help much unless it was colder then it could have been ridiculous Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Just now, Bob Chill said: If the track is going to tuck, our latitude is actually a savior for once. We maximize the antecedent airmass as the storm is bombing. Mixing is far from the end of the world in that scenario.. This. I would be peeing my pants in NYC as 50 more miles puts them almost completely out of the game. This can come even further west and still thump the hell out of us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 12z GGEM is well east of GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 hr96, 850 line is too close for comfort. i think bulk of precip is out of the area though? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 16 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Already over 1" OTG by 8pm on Monday in DC Versus the NAM at that time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Getting highly concerned about the west track. Also starting to lose hope in a slower storm. This thing rockets in and out. I thought that would eventually change over time. Mayhaps not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 For those worried about a west track...the CMC is a disaster east track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TowsonWeather Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 1 minute ago, Quasievil said: Def a "large" west shift from 6Z putting even western MD in mixing jeopardy. Uh, no. Neither of those two statements is accurate. That said, it DID certainly nudge west a bit, cutting out any remaining leeway we had in the I-95 corridor. The concern is that it wouldn't take much - just a couple of very minor bumps west - to change the complexion of this thing from big snow with some possible mixing to just big mixing. I'm nervous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Just looking at the soundings on Pivotal. Hour 96 is close for DC for sure. Basically from the eastern Loudoun border and NW of there is fine. The track on the 12Z GFS is historically a great track for NOVA though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman. Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 CMC is way east almost a whiff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 2 minutes ago, BristowWx said: would like to see some east solutions now. also I noticed the NS was further north again...or maybe just stronger and slower...either way it didn't help much unless it was colder then it could have been ridiculous There are some subtle differences comparing previous runs so it could just be noise. Some things have to work out for sure to get as much snow in as it says on the snow maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 gfs snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 The CMC is digging more at 78 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 CMC keeps the NS and SS basically separate. Compact precip shield with the southern storm. Has a weird double barrel look too. It could happen that way I suppose but definitely an outlier for now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanconway63 Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 is the CMC east of the 0z run?? Im only out to 24 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 I am not smart enough to interpret this, but I saw people mentioning an eastward track of the low. Here's the last six runs of the GFS at 12z Tuesday. Looks like a west (edit duh) "trend" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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