PhineasC Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 6 minutes ago, osfan24 said: I don't really understand the mindset that a big snowstorm can't happen in March. Why not? Just because very few have happened in the past? That's just because it's difficult to get the cold air in place and also have a dynamic system. In this case, we have the cold air in place, which is difficult in March. On top of that, you have a lot of warm air running around in March, so if you can get that running into cold air, you can really go big. It's been so warm this winter I think it is hard to believe it can come back this late. If it had been cold and snowy since December people would more easily buy into this storm since it would still feel like deep winter. Instead, it feels like an interruption to the ongoing spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 5 minutes ago, RidingTheModelWithMostSnow said: First off we will be in a cold airmass. Secondly, it is a mostly overnight storm. We have had 3 storms with 10+ inches in the last 4 years in March Yes...March 2014 and 2015 in particular stand out. I didn't get 10"+ from any March event where I'm at, but got a couple of storms of around 6" and the St. Patrick's snow in 2014 was 8". And a couple of smaller ones on the 25th in both 2013 and 2014. A couple of those storms stood out as being quite cold, too, during the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 14 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Psuhoff, clean out your PM inbox dude. Ok I will get on that...sorry had actual work to do lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AdamHLG Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Well, for what it is worth, the lay person Facebook hype machine is full tilt right now with a 12+ blizzard. It is Friday so people are not working hard and posting. And this cow has left the barn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Heh...Chuck Bell on NBC 4 saying "no way" more than an inch falls next Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 5 minutes ago, Don Cherry's Jacket said: Well, the last part about the warm air elsewhere being able to amp the storm I do agree with. But, its also why its hard to fully believe in a big storm. Minor track differences creating hefty differences in the snow/rain line, for example. Like I said, let's see how the models progress over the weekend. Realistically, down seems like the only real direction. could be right. I dont think anyone here is 100% sold on this and wont be until around Sunday morning. but things do look pretty good right now for most on or west of the fall line. just my 2 cents..east of that could mix but when don't they..not often. fun to track regardless and beats 70s and sun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said: Heh...Chuck Bell on NBC 4 saying "no way" more than an inch falls next Tuesday. That is just stupid and reckless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PCT_ATC Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said: Heh...Chuck Bell on NBC 4 saying "no way" more than an inch falls next Tuesday. I think hes just going with the odds.. after all hes been right all winter! insignificant amount of snow at dca so far to date Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 1 minute ago, Fozz said: That is just stupid and reckless. come on. its no different than ERS saying winter was over days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Let's stick to GFS analysis only for the next 30 minutes. Keep the thread clean and concise. Heights are lower in the east through 51 vs 6z. Should help the NS dig further S. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Just now, Bob Chill said: Let's stick to GFS analysis only for the next 30 minutes. Keep the thread clean and concise. Heights are lower in the east through 51 vs 6z. Should help the NS dig further S. This is good news, correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Don Cherry's Jacket Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 4 minutes ago, BristowWx said: could be right. I dont think anyone here is 100% sold on this and wont be until around Sunday morning. but things do look pretty good right now for most on or west of the fall line. just my 2 cents..east of that could mix but when don't they..not often. fun to track regardless and beats 70s and sun. Agree that tracking this is fun and healthy scientific skepticism is warranted and interesting. Disagree that it is better than 70 and sun, especially over the weekend.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Just now, yoda said: This is good news, correct? It's probably just noise and insignificant but if you are looking for signs of the wheels coming off early in the run then they aren't there. If anything it's a small improvement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 21 minutes ago, Don Cherry's Jacket said: I know the models are showing this in some instances, but I have real trouble believing a 10 inch snow storm is actually possible in March. Call it sun angle, latitude, hunch, warm pavement, whatever, but my mind is looking at these outputs and just saying "no way". Will be really interesting to see how this evolves over the weekend. Good thing snowfall measurements are not taken on pavement I get what you're trying to say but you see my point as well I hope... Onto the GFS! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Looks like a significant change in the placement of the northern stream SLP at hr 54 - from mid Colorado to South Dakota - compared to previous runs; not sure what that implies down stream in terms of later confluence? ETA: Never mind, looks like a glitch, it's back south again at hr 60. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMan1 Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 4 minutes ago, Always in Zugzwang said: Yes...March 2014 and 2015 in particular stand out. I didn't get 10"+ from any March event where I'm at, but got a couple of storms of around 6" and the St. Patrick's snow in 2014 was 8". And a couple of smaller ones on the 25th in both 2013 and 2014. A couple of those storms stood out as being quite cold, too, during the day. I was going to say, the St. Patrick's Day storm stood out in my mind. Probably my favorite of that winter, since being east of 95 the Feb 2014 Miller A gave me 7" of snow, followed by rain, then 4 or inches of snow with the deformation axis. I distinctly recall the March 17th 2014 event being at night (16th into the 17th), which totaled 8.5" at my place. A great system, one that certainly met my expectations if not "overperformed". That's a pretty solid, relatively recent analog right there. Also, recall the March 25th event back in 2013. This was a couple weeks after "Snowqueaster". I measured 3.2" that morning, which was the most I had seen all winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 6 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Let's stick to GFS analysis only for the next 30 minutes. Keep the thread clean and concise. Heights are lower in the east through 51 vs 6z. Should help the NS dig further S. I'm trying to get psu to start the thread, but I can't PM him. Where the hell is he? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: I'm trying to get psu to start the thread, but I can't PM him. Where the hell is he? Teaching would be my guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 This run looks a bit different. I hope it's not TOO different! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 HR 66...500mb vort appears more amped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Well, NS vort is a tough slower so heights rebound in the east by hr72-75. Southern energy closer to the coast so it's probably not going to matter either way. Should be another big run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Just now, Eskimo Joe said: HR 66...500mb vort appears more amped. Even moreso imo at 72. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Actually looks less amped to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Already over 1" OTG by 8pm on Monday in DC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Slightly slower NS to my eye, but coastal low is much tighter in than previous runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: Actually looks less amped to me That's what my thought was as well - but I'm also a noob. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Just now, Bob Chill said: Already over 1" OTG by 8pm on Monday in DC Seems quicker than previously thought start time of 9p Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Antecedent airmass looks plenty cold...shouldn't be much melting or loss from virga. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 DC crushed before walking the temp line. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: Already over 1" OTG by 8pm on Monday in DC 1" precip by 2am. This is a Monday late evening affair. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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