cae Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 Pretty good agreement between the 3km NAM and the RGEM on total snowfall in the next 24 hours. Not a lot of accumulation though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 I'm in. Think all of us will see flakes falling for at least a bit, hopefully heavy at times. Then we root for the late day squalls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 12z GFS has joined the NAM parallel nest in the wet camp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted March 9, 2017 Author Share Posted March 9, 2017 South trend on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 Euro looks like it wants to give the northern tier folks 1-3 inches. Considering the trend, this could be a nowcast situation. I just think these things never end up as far south as the models show. It's 70 right now. How is it snowing in 12 hours or so? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 Euro has shifted the the heavier snowfall in the northern portion of MD farther south once again. While DC remains in the half inch mark the northern portion of Baltimore just gets into the 2 inch line now. We are now also seeing the 3 1/2 inch line into northern portions of Carroll and Baltimore counties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 3 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: Euro has shifted the the heavier snowfall in the northern portion of MD farther south once again. While DC remains in the half inch mark the northern portion of Baltimore just gets into the 2 inch line now. We are now also seeing the 3 1/2 inch line into northern portions of Carroll and Baltimore counties. Did you have a Panasonic map at 36 hours for snow total. I can't get my Panasonic data to run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Did you have a Panasonic map at 36 hours for snow total. I can't get my Panasonic data to run. Nah, I am not even sure where to get it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 Saw this play out a month ago....Models tend to overdue the cold push and switch to snow...Perhaps an inch or 2 right along PA line, otherwise non event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 11 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: Nah, I am not even sure where to get it. That's code. Did you see the other Panasonic maps posted in the long range thread? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 72F. Excited to see snow tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 11 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: That's code. Did you see the other Panasonic maps posted in the long range thread? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 14 minutes ago, BaltimoreWxGuy said: Saw this play out a month ago....Models tend to overdue the cold push and switch to snow...Perhaps an inch or 2 right along PA line, otherwise non event. The one thing about this event that the last one didn't have is the low dews out ahead of the precip field. Once we start to precip, we will wet bulb really well. Also, this system has a more robust CAA regime behind the disturbance, so despite the less dynamic nature of the system now compared to February, rain SHOULD likely turn to snow in the AM. The warm temps now will be a caveat to get any decent accumulations sans the the northern fringes of the state, but at least it'll be snowing. I don't think the main low will be the biggest deal for the day tomorrow. The opportunity for snow squalls to wander out of PA will be in play given the strong PVA and CAA through the afternoon. Temps will rise in the afternoon, but not very much that's for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxhoov Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 1 minute ago, mappy said: So what are you figuring mappy? Should we be good for 2 inches of slop? Hah Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 16 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: That's code. Did you see the other Panasonic maps posted in the long range thread? I thought it was but wasn't 100% sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 4 minutes ago, Wxhoov said: So what are you figuring mappy? Should we be good for 2 inches of slop? Hah will get back to you very soon, work thing i need to deal with first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 26 minutes ago, BaltimoreWxGuy said: Saw this play out a month ago....Models tend to overdue the cold push and switch to snow...Perhaps an inch or 2 right along PA line, otherwise non event. Dewpoints much coolder for this storm. Easier for column to cool. Being discussed by redtaggers in Central Pa forum. Nut Edit. See Millevilles expo above. Spells it out nicely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 So my wife, who lived in Western PA for many years, wants to take a trip up with me and the kid to visit family in Philly Friday night. Should I tell her we need to cancel or push it back a night? I'd love to catch the snow but I don't want to die, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 20 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: 72F. Excited to see snow tomorrow. Yeah, I don't expect any accumulation in spite of some of the maps. Just some nice snow TV, maybe a dusting at the most. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 1 minute ago, supernovasky said: So my wife, who lived in Western PA for many years, wants to take a trip up with me and the kid to visit family in Philly Friday night. Should I tell her we need to cancel or push it back a night? I'd love to catch the snow but I don't want to die, lol. Saturday a better bet. Friday evening squalls are being discussed and sound like they may be a little nasty. Safe travels. Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxhoov Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 3 minutes ago, supernovasky said: So my wife, who lived in Western PA for many years, wants to take a trip up with me and the kid to visit family in Philly Friday night. Should I tell her we need to cancel or push it back a night? I'd love to catch the snow but I don't want to die, lol. you would be fine by friday afternoon its suppose to wrap up around noon. And id imagine its gonna melt pretty quick on blacktop Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 Just now, supernovasky said: So my wife, who lived in Western PA for many years, wants to take a trip up with me and the kid to visit family in Philly Friday night. Should I tell her we need to cancel or push it back a night? I'd love to catch the snow but I don't want to die, lol. It's really going to be fine. Most people in the Mid Atlantic do drive in snow, even if it's sticking on the roads. I personally don't get nervous unless it's a surprise snow, so roads aren't being plowed and there's no pre-treatment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 16 minutes ago, mappy said: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 Now watch 18z make a fool of me, but you've really got to like the latest trends on this thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 SO then my second question... being that I am likely driving to Philly, should I stay the hell out of this forum while I'm up there Friday? Or post during the drive? Lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 2 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Now watch 18z make a fool of me, but you've really got to like the latest trends on this thing. Wes predicted before the February non-event that the 18Z runs would shift north because the models under-forecast the warm temperatures that afternoon. They indeed did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 Just now, gymengineer said: Wes predicted before the February non-event that the 18Z runs would shift north because the models under-forecast the warm temperatures that afternoon. They indeed did. Did you read this post? 24 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: The one thing about this event that the last one didn't have is the low dews out ahead of the precip field. Once we start to precip, we will wet bulb really well. Also, this system has a more robust CAA regime behind the disturbance, so despite the less dynamic nature of the system now compared to February, rain SHOULD likely turn to snow in the AM. The warm temps now will be a caveat to get any decent accumulations sans the the northern fringes of the state, but at least it'll be snowing. I don't think the main low will be the biggest deal for the day tomorrow. The opportunity for snow squalls to wander out of PA will be in play given the strong PVA and CAA through the afternoon. Temps will rise in the afternoon, but not very much that's for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 5 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Did you read this post? Yeah I did. I'm not talking about whether it's going to snow tomorrow. I was simply affirming your sentence to wait for the 18Z and see if they hold, which would be a good thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 51 minutes ago, Wxhoov said: So what are you figuring mappy? Should we be good for 2 inches of slop? Hah hi, sorry about that. so if you believe what the euro is putting out Precip comes in sometime before 7am, but temps are already 32 or higher (further south you go). Which means, sure it could snow, but won't amount to much. A couple slushy inches could be the best we see, on the grass/mulch/deck surfaces. Doubtful it accumulates on the roads, or sticks around very long. Probably just enough to have northern Baltimore County delay schools and traffic to suck. Obviously the further west you go (Manchester for example) will do better. One they have better elevation and will stay cold longer. But any place that is borderline 32 or above... its just falling snow and crappy drives to work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxhoov Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 7 minutes ago, mappy said: hi, sorry about that. so if you believe what the euro is putting out Precip comes in sometime before 7am, but temps are already 32 or higher (further south you go). Which means, sure it could snow, but won't amount to much. A couple slushy inches could be the best we see, on the grass/mulch/deck surfaces. Doubtful it accumulates on the roads, or sticks around very long. Probably just enough to have northern Baltimore County delay schools and traffic to suck. Obviously the further west you go (Manchester for example) will do better. One they have better elevation and will stay cold longer. But any place that is borderline 32 or above... its just falling snow and crappy drives to work. Haha no its fine! and yeah thats what i was kinda figuring. Just be nice to have alittle something to hold us over till tuesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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