PackGrad05 Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 You can bet that RAH will put a lot of stock in the NAM... and rightfully so after its performance in January. I'd lean toward it as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 1 minute ago, AsheCounty48 said: Normally yes. This year I put a little more stock in it after the January storm. The NAM and German model were the only ones that showed a stronger system consistently even if the track wasn't consistent. Yeah, good point. Once it gets in range, let's see what it does. If it's still amped at 60 or so, I'll bite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 Dang, Raleigh NWS going with all snow ptype... Wake- Including the cities of Raleigh and Cary 404 PM EST Wed Mar 8 2017 .FRIDAY NIGHT...Clear, cooler with lows in the mid 30s. Northwest winds 10 to 15 mph. .SATURDAY...Partly sunny. Much cooler with highs in the lower 50s. .SATURDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy. Snow likely after midnight. Little or no snow accumulation. Cold with lows in the lower 30s. Chance of snow 60 percent. .SUNDAY...A chance of snow in the morning. Cloudy. Highs in the lower 40s. Chance of snow 50 percent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 Just now, Cold Rain said: Yeah, good point. Once it gets in range, let's see what it does. If it's still amped at 60 or so, I'll bite. I laughed at the NAM in the Jan rain event....but yeah, let's see tomorrows 12z runs where we will be in the 60-72 hour range. For the Jan event things started ticking north at that range. These things are usually tough to keep suppressed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 11 minutes ago, griteater said: Dang, Raleigh NWS going with all snow ptype... Wake- Including the cities of Raleigh and Cary 404 PM EST Wed Mar 8 2017 .FRIDAY NIGHT...Clear, cooler with lows in the mid 30s. Northwest winds 10 to 15 mph. .SATURDAY...Partly sunny. Much cooler with highs in the lower 50s. .SATURDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy. Snow likely after midnight. Little or no snow accumulation. Cold with lows in the lower 30s. Chance of snow 60 percent. .SUNDAY...A chance of snow in the morning. Cloudy. Highs in the lower 40s. Chance of snow 50 percent. Here's my grid forecast: Saturday Night Snow likely, mainly after 3am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 31. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Sunday Snow likely, mainly before 7am. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 42. Chance of precipitation is 60%. But, notice the 4 hour timespan. Hardly a snowstorm.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 13 minutes ago, packbacker said: I laughed at the NAM in the Jan rain event....but yeah, let's see tomorrows 12z runs where we will be in the 60-72 hour range. For the Jan event things started ticking north at that range. These things are usually tough to keep suppressed. Yep, I think we've seen as far south as this thing will go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 2 minutes ago, FallsLake said: Here's my grid forecast: Saturday Night Snow likely, mainly after 3am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 31. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Sunday Snow likely, mainly before 7am. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 42. Chance of precipitation is 60%. But, notice the 4 hour timespan. Hardly a snowstorm.. Y'all awful greedy for a Winter of total sucktasticness!!? Flakes in March after this Sh!t-fest, would be a miracle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 1 hour ago, BornAgain13 said: This thing might be to supressed... Remember the NW trend is your friend. (SOMETIMES) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 1 minute ago, mackerel_sky said: Y'all awful greedy for a Winter of total sucktasticness!!? Flakes in March after this Sh!t-fest, would be a miracle Lol, your right.......I'm greedy. I don't want to see light dustings on the grass or the famous "Snow" written on the car windshield. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ajr Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 18z GFS looks virtually identical through hr 60 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 8 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: Yep, I think we've seen as far south as this thing will go. 18z coming in way south at hour 54......just kidding. Looks about the same so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sarcean Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 Yeah in Greensboro: Saturday Night Snow likely, mainly after 3am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 30. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Sunday Snow likely, mainly before 7am. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 44. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Split flow will prevail through the period, with a couple of potential precipitation events late Sat night-early Sun and again late Mon-Tue, with the former likely to be a nrn stream-dominated quick-hitting system and the latter a potentially more wound up/phased one. A lead cold front, propelled by a strong shortwave trough forecast to migrate across the Great Lakes and Northeast, will cross central NC during the day Fri - late morning to midday NW Piedmont to mid- afternoon over the Sandhills and srn Coastal Plain. A preceding mid level moist axis accompanying the aforementioned shortwave trough, and associated weakening band of showers with time and Ewd extent as it moves into an increasingly dry and stable regime E of the Appalachians, may support a few sprinkles or light showers over the Piedmont early Fri. Then, very weak instability on the order of a couple of hundred J/kg or less, but with weak moisture convergence along the surface front, may prove sufficient for a couple of shallow/light showers along the passing frontal zone as it settles through the Coastal Plain and Sandhills coincident with (near) peak diurnal heating. It will otherwise be warm --mid 60s to mid 70s with NW downslope flow likely to help offset CAA-- and breezy both ahead of and behind the front. The noticeably colder air will arrive Fri night, with temperatures expected to fall into the 30s by Fri morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 Hard to believe its only showing 4 hours of precipitation. why does the storm always have to be a fast mover, why can't we get a slow mover12 to 18 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 18z GFS looking quite similar to previous run. It looks a slightly more robust with 700mb RH footprint. Temps are similar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 At hour 84 looks about dead on to the 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 we need something to slow the storm down, I think the cold will be here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted March 8, 2017 Author Share Posted March 8, 2017 18z went back north slightly... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 Burger would have liked this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 Just had a double post for some reason. But this run was an improvement for many across NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 3 minutes ago, FallsLake said: Burger would have liked this run. Yes, if Burger lived in Danville, VA...lol. March cold is just not cold enough. Maybe if there were a stout CAD, but I still don't see that. High is out west in latest modeling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted March 8, 2017 Author Share Posted March 8, 2017 4 minutes ago, griteater said: Im that 0.7" on the border lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 Curious to see pics on the 21z (81hrs) and 0z NAM (78hrs) runs this evening to track against the 18z (84hr) look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 2 minutes ago, SnowNiner said: Yes, if Burger lived in Danville, VA...lol. March cold is just not cold enough. Maybe if there were a stout CAD, but I still don't see that. High is out west in latest modeling. Yep, just looked at the surface temps. They do crash below freezing at hour 90 for the central and northern part of NC but not in time for boarder areas. There is some freezing rain showing up to the east of Charlotte: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 I would not buy in to much to the ZR potential, that's just an indeterminate type at this range, should be either RN or SN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 Interesting little piece of energy down in TX...be nice if that could juice up the NS energy. Wonder if that is what's causing the big dogs on the ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 3 minutes ago, WeatherNC said: I would not buy in to much to the ZR potential, that's just an indeterminate type at this range, should be either RN or SN. Agree, I see maybe a very narrow transition band, but mainly a pretty sharp rain/snow line. If this occurs at all in NC not sure we are looking at massive ice areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 DGEX must have sucked, I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 6 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: DGEX must have sucked, I guess. Like always Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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