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3/11-3/12 Winter Storm


BornAgain13

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Of course us RDU folks would like the 6z NAM. That model weakened the storm a little but expanded some higher amounts into the Triangle.

Should be more accurate model runs today, as shortwave is already sampled! Hopefully we score a dusting on Sun morning! Hopefully there is a bust on the heavy side, like last nights tstorm bust!? According to KK on fox, the line was going to fall apart when it got here,and maybe a tumblr of thunder!??! Woke up to a severe storm with nickel sized hail! So she's going with flurries in mountains of the upstate, so we're looking good for Sunday, except for the 50s on Saturday! :(

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Should be more accurate model runs today, as shortwave is already sampled! Hopefully we score a dusting on Sun morning! Hopefully there is a bust on the heavy side, like last nights tstorm bust!? According to KK on fox, the line was going to fall apart when it got here,and maybe a tumblr of thunder!??! Woke up to a severe storm with nickel sized hail! So she's going with flurries in mountains of the upstate, so we're looking good for Sunday, except for the 50s on Saturday! :(

At this point I'm not even worried about ground temps. Just give me some snow falling from the sky and it'll be a win (after yesterdays model runs).

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RAH this morning:

The approach of mid-level wave will lead to weak sfc cyclogenesis
along the leading edge of the Arctic airmass extending from the
northern Gulf to the Southeast Coast. Recent 00z/10 NWP guidance
indicates a pronounced southward shift in the track of the sfc low
across the Deep South/Northern GOM, which the EC has steadily been
depicting for a few days now. This has led to lower QPF amounts
across the area, as the stronger southerly warm air advection gets
suppressed south of the area Saturday night and through the day on
Sunday. Mean liquid-equivalent from the entire event is now a few
hundredths across the NE tier to around 0.20" of an inch in an arc
from the Triad to the Sandhills and southern coastal plain.

.

.

Therefore at this time, Saturday night and into Sunday is looking
like a very marginal/low impact snow event for central NC, where the
NW Piedmont/Triad could see 1 to 1.5 inches, with a dusting or less
elsewhere.
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1 hour ago, PackGrad05 said:

The NAM is certainly holding its own.  It hasn't really caved toward the other solutions yet...  

 

NAM is still pretty good here. The NAM did the best with the Jan storm here. Of course, it was the one showing the least amount of snow. That seems to be the smart thing to do, go with the one that shows the least. But none of the models are consistently right when it comes to winter storms here and the amount of snow. There is just too much involved when it comes to getting snow here to depend on any of them to get it right consistently. The best thing to do is just look at them all, see all the possible outcomes they show, and then just wait and see what happens. But it is fun to see what could happen.

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My current forecast, which I'm sure will change many many times in the next 2-3 days. And i get next to nothing in snow!!! Alan tweet this morning disagrees with this big time!!! He says much to do about nothing Sunday, and He's watching Monday/Tuesday... Me too watching it go up and blast the NE........................... 

SATURDAY NIGHT...Rain likely in the evening. Snow likely.
Moderate snow accumulation possible. Lows in the upper 20s. Light
and variable winds. Chance of precipitation 70 percent. 
.SUNDAY...Mostly cloudy with a chance of snow with a slight
chance of rain in the morning...then mostly sunny with scattered
sprinkles in the afternoon. Additional light snow accumulation
possible. Highs in the lower 40s. Light and variable winds.
Chance of precipitation 50 percent. 
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 20s. 
.MONDAY...A chance of snow in the morning. Mostly cloudy with a
chance of rain. Highs around 40. Chance of precipitation
40 percent. 
.MONDAY NIGHT...Cloudy with a chance of rain. A chance of snow
after midnight. Lows in the lower 30s. Chance of precipitation
50 percent. 
.TUESDAY...Mostly cloudy in the morning...then becoming partly
sunny. A chance of snow in the morning. A chance of rain showers.
Highs in the mid 40s. Temperature falling into the lower 40s in
the afternoon. Chance of precipitation 50 percent. 
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1 minute ago, BIG FROSTY said:

My current forecast, which I'm sure will change many many times in the next 2-3 days. And i get next to nothing in snow!!! Alan tweet this morning disagrees with this big time!!! He says much to do about nothing Sunday, and He's watching Monday/Tuesday... Me too watching it go up and blast the NE........................... 


SATURDAY NIGHT...Rain likely in the evening. Snow likely.
Moderate snow accumulation possible. Lows in the upper 20s. Light
and variable winds. Chance of precipitation 70 percent. 
.SUNDAY...Mostly cloudy with a chance of snow with a slight
chance of rain in the morning...then mostly sunny with scattered
sprinkles in the afternoon. Additional light snow accumulation
possible. Highs in the lower 40s. Light and variable winds.
Chance of precipitation 50 percent. 
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 20s. 
.MONDAY...A chance of snow in the morning. Mostly cloudy with a
chance of rain. Highs around 40. Chance of precipitation
40 percent. 
.MONDAY NIGHT...Cloudy with a chance of rain. A chance of snow
after midnight. Lows in the lower 30s. Chance of precipitation
50 percent. 
.TUESDAY...Mostly cloudy in the morning...then becoming partly
sunny. A chance of snow in the morning. A chance of rain showers.
Highs in the mid 40s. Temperature falling into the lower 40s in
the afternoon. Chance of precipitation 50 percent. 

+1

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Yep, the NAM looks great, but I'm not sure if I jackpot, with 42 and snow! I don't see the cold being there, despite being NAM'd! I got 110:1 odds we hit mid 50s Saturday and never get below 45 Sat night, just how we roll

Mack you need to tweet your weather thoughts, and get them out beyond American weather! Might get you a Purple tag some day... lol :guitar:

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