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3/11-3/12 Winter Storm


BornAgain13

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2 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said:

Glad to be NW of the highest totals.

This is not coming back NW...if anything weaker and less qpf will be likely.  But, still should be a nice event for the folks south/east/west of us and the Monday/Tuesday deal will be great for the folks north and west of us.  Setting up to be a classic Wake Co winter event. 

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4 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said:

Glad to be NW of the highest totals.

I hear ya Brick. My gut tells me suppression this far south makes no sense this time of year and we are in a good spot.  

I suspect the NAM is more right than wrong here though.  

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2 minutes ago, CaryWx said:

I hear ya Brick. My gut tells me suppression this far south makes no sense this time of year and we are in a good spot.  

I suspect the NAM is more right than wrong here though.  

Time and time again we have seen the bigger totals end up NW of what the models show on the day of the storm. No reason to think that won't happen IF we get any kind of snow at all in NC.

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I'll gladly cash out with this.

 

It's becoming apparent that there is potential for a little accumulation in the upstate Sunday morning.  We will likely lose up to 1/4 inch of liquid to cooling the boundary layer before flipping to snow that sticks on grass.

It is all going to come down to banding and how that sets up over the area. Some models seem so have a heavy axis of precip setting up fairly far south, from say athens to columbia, SC. Other models have it more north.

If a band of heavy precip does form over area's with subfreezing 850's I think said area will get a decent 1 to 3 inch thump Sunday morning. 

nam4km_asnow_seus_21.png

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5 minutes ago, SN_Lover said:

Lol end of the Nam looks like a lakes cutter. Will surely ruffle some feathers.

It has already popped the secondary around CHS at 84. That thing is going to go kaboom. This is a good setup for areas of I40 north. NAM is known to overamplify its a known bias.

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12 minutes ago, RevDodd said:

All I can say about the NAM ... I admire its spunk for this storm.But when your bullseye for a March storm is Florence, SC ... and a foot at that ... I think there's shenanigans afoot!

flo.png

pretty funny stuff. nam has temps in that zone in the mid 50s at 21z sat....it's still in the mid 40s at 06z sun...09z..temps are still upper 30s to near 40. 3 hours later it has  it snowing and temps are near freezing. even showing a few inches here....somehow more than in places like gainesville. I would  love for it to happen but lol. Does look like a decent possibility for sc to see at least some minor accumulations at least as temps aloft are colder and closer to colder surface temps

 

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26 minutes ago, packbacker said:

This is not coming back NW...if anything weaker and less qpf will be likely.  But, still should be a nice event for the folks south/east/west of us and the Monday/Tuesday deal will be great for the folks north and west of us.  Setting up to be a classic Wake Co winter event. 

So bizarre, yet so accurate how this repeatably predictable scenario plays out year after year.

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incredibly the rgem is looking decent too. colder aloft than the nam..even has areas west of or near  atlanta ending in snow it looks like.  

interesting note...the german model has been the leader as far as it being colder at 850s..it's been colder than the others for a few runs now. .below is the 18z run from yesterday  valid 12z sunday. 

 

 

 

rgem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_16.png

 

rgem_T850_seus_17.png

 

TT_GZ_UU_VV_066_0850.gif

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3 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said:

Guys, I went ahead and created a new thread for the mon tues threat so we can separate the two events, as the upcoming days will start saturating the pages for that specific threat. 

Sounds good!

RGEM at hr48 is skimpy on precip, but does have some very light stuff in N GA / N SC / W NC.  It's cold in NC.  Raleigh is 31 temp / 8 dewpoint at the time of this map, Sun 12z.

vIfiRsd.gif

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To be fair, Wake County / the Triangle has seen nice winter events through the years. We do miss out on some storms but also get many storms where others miss out. We might have missed out more than normal the last few years but traditionally this is actually a good place to be (for the SE); whereas we can get in on the western storms, eastern storms, and northern piedmont clippers. Also we're in the CAD zone  which helps with the ice storms.

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12 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

So bizarre, yet so accurate how this repeatably predictable scenario plays out year after year.

Looking forward to waking up Sunday and watching Columbia to Florence getting 4-6" and then the next day watching GSO and points west getting 6-10".  All is right in the snow world.  

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16 minutes ago, FallsLake said:

To be fair, Wake County / the Triangle has seen nice winter events through the years. We do miss out on some storms but also get many storms where others miss out. We might have missed out more than normal the last few years but traditionally this is actually a good place to be (for the SE); whereas we can get in on the western storms, eastern storms, and northern piedmont clippers. Also we're in the CAD zone  which helps with the ice storms.

Would have been great to be here in the 60's.  Since 89 this is the one place you don't want to live for snow.  We are at our lowest 10/15/20/30 seasonal snowfall avg in 130+ years.  Next 5 years 2000 and 2002 will roll off our 20 year and we will be laughable.  

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2 minutes ago, packbacker said:

Would have been great to be here in the 60's.  Since 89 this is the one place you don't want to live for snow.  We are at our lowest 10/15/20/30 seasonal snowfall avg in 130+ years.  Next 5 years 2000 and 2002 will roll off our 20 year and we will be laughable.  

I know in weather you're not suppose to say we're due; but we're due...

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