burrel2 Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 Looking like a car topper is possible across the upstate Sunday morning as the lead wave moves through. Things are definitely looking bleak for a big hit in NC area's with the lead wave as the trend is flatter/weaker/colder. Those guys will have to root for the back wave to preform if they want anything more than a coating that will be melted away a few hours after it falls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 God bless the GFS, it's trying for next weeks storm! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted March 9, 2017 Author Share Posted March 9, 2017 18z GFS looks sharper for Monday/ Tuesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 WRAL Futurecast shows very very light precip around central NC. Must be in line with euro and gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted March 9, 2017 Author Share Posted March 9, 2017 One thing is for certain... models are definitely agreeing more on Monday/ Tuesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 This appears to be about right based on what we know right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 Looks like there's some decent wedge potential with the miller B transfer happening on most of the models as the coastal bombs out. Should keep boundary layer temps in check if precip blossoms quickly enough for NC as the coastal bombs. mid level temps might still be an issue though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow dog Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 1 minute ago, BornAgain13 said: One thing is for certain... models are definitely agreeing more on Monday/ Tuesday Yeah, until we get to Sat/Sunday lol... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 The follow up phased storm is a mid atlantic north storm. I'll stick with a solid overrunning event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 Congrats boston Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 17 minutes ago, franklin NCwx said: Congrats boston NYC looks to jack pot. All I ask is for Washington to get shut out again. Haven't they only had like 3 or 4 inches this season so far? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 18z gfs is moisuture starved for rdu north. hoping for a northern tick in the qpf as the wave gets better sampled tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 Thinking this phases before. That miller B junk will be gone and replaced by a miller A. The sunday threat is dead. i think RDU jackpots from Tuesdays threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 1 minute ago, SN_Lover said: Thinking this phases before. That miller B junk will be gone and replaced by a miller A. The sunday threat is dead. i think RDU jackpots from Tuesdays threat. Do you consider a rain storm as a jackpot? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 Just now, burrel2 said: Do you consider a rain storm as a jackpot? Not focusing on ptype when we can't get anything in the upper levels resolved. Focus on that 1-3days before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 Don't be fooled by the NAM snow maps, those pinks are weenie blood. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 2 minutes ago, WeatherNC said: Don't be fooled by the NAM snow maps, those pinks are weenie blood. Now that, folks, is how to make a funny one-liner! Thank you, sir. Made my day! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 Always the next one!? The Sun storm will be juicier starting tomorrow afternoon runs! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 Based on the upper air dynamics I really think the system will trend N/NW tomorrow. My reason being that the high pressure won't suppress the low as much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 12 minutes ago, SN_Lover said: Thinking this phases before. That miller B junk will be gone and replaced by a miller A. The sunday threat is dead. i think RDU jackpots from Tuesdays threat. Depends where you live. The sat-sun event is still good for some of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 3 minutes ago, franklin NCwx said: Depends where you live. The sat-sun event is still good for some of us. True. I'm speaking for my locale. But remember, most models kept on wanting to speed up the SW when it came from Washington in the last storm. I'm thinking this slows down and a gulf low forms and goes up the coast. Without a dying low, cold air will be plentiful. Might be a copy if the Jan storm. Patterns repeat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted March 9, 2017 Author Share Posted March 9, 2017 2 minutes ago, SN_Lover said: True. I'm speaking for my locale. But remember, most models kept on wanting to speed up the SW when it came from Washington in the last storm. I'm thinking this slows down and a gulf low forms and goes up the coast. Without a dying low, cold air will be plentiful. Might be a copy if the Jan storm. Patterns repeat. I like your thinking! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 1 minute ago, SN_Lover said: True. I'm speaking for my locale. But remember, most models kept on wanting to speed up the SW when it came from Washington in the last storm. I'm thinking this slows down and a gulf low forms and goes up the coast. Without a dying low, cold air will be plentiful. Might be a copy if the Jan storm. Patterns repeat. If you take away the dying low to west, that means we have an earlier phase... which means the bombing low is going to most likely be further west.. IE.. up the coast or inside of Hatteras. Potentially very good for the Mountains and maybe Hickory to Greensboro, but bad for Triangle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 GFS trending toward the Euro and the GEM with a weaker front wave and a more phased early week system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 2 hours ago, Cold Rain said: And the cool thing is, the shortwave only trends stronger and the the precip shield only becomes more expansive from here. yep we got it right were we want it ...., seriously though I would rather see this versus stronger earlier S/W that equals a rain storm....hopefully once we get good sampling the models will revert back to the bombing low along the SC coast moving offshore scenario....the wave should be coming ashore over the NW tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 2 minutes ago, burrel2 said: If you take away the dying low to west, that means we have an earlier phase... which means the bombing low is going to most likely be further west.. IE.. up the coast or inside of Hatteras. Potentially very good for the Mountains and maybe Hickory to Greensboro, but bad for Triangle. Too early to go into that much detail. but yes, those are the climo favored areas for this setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 4 minutes ago, burrel2 said: If you take away the dying low to west, that means we have an earlier phase... which means the bombing low is going to most likely be further west.. IE.. up the coast or inside of Hatteras. Potentially very good for the Mountains and maybe Hickory to Greensboro, but bad for Triangle. If only it would play out like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 Here's the 18z GFS at 90 hrs.. Trending stronges with the polar wave and slower with the STJ wave Now here's the 12z GEM to compare at the same time to show how the GFS is trending toward a big phaser. The STJ wave is stronger and slower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 So let me get this straight: The weak Sunday wave sets the table for the Tuesday Mid-Atlantic HECS, which drags down the cold air to set the table for the Friday SE BECS. That where we are now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 Let's back up a bit to 60 hrs (valid 6z 3/12) on the 18z GFS and notice the two pieces of energy - one over the central US (aka the weekend wave) and and other over Mexico. GFS has been trending the central US wave slower and further SW. The GEM infused the Mexico energy into the southern wave by this time .. that's going to be the ticket to a full throated Miller A HECS. Otherwise we're looking at a hybrid A/B like the Euro or more Miller B like the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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