snowlover91 Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 The irony in the January storm was "NAM is too warm toss it" when every other models and ensemble was snowy. Turned out it was right. Now in March the NAM is snowy and everyone discounts it. Perhaps it is picking up on the energy interactions better than other models or the effects of CAD causing more overrunning precip as well? Remember global don't usually pick CAD up very well until within 48 hours and that can have an impact on their qpf output. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 10 minutes ago, snowlover91 said: The irony in the January storm was "NAM is too warm toss it" when every other models and ensemble was snowy. Turned out it was right. Now in March the NAM is snowy and everyone discounts it. Perhaps it is picking up on the energy interactions better than other models or the effects of CAD causing more overrunning precip as well? Remember global don't usually pick CAD up very well until within 48 hours and that can have an impact on their qpf output. I understand your sentiment. However, the nam was correct on its thermal profiles and I don't believe the track, or precip precidiction, was significantly better than some of the other models. Its wheelhouse is predicting where the rain/snow/sleet lines might setup in my opinion. It has a know bias of overamping a system too far north and with way too much precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 Might have to change the thread title to 3/14. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 7 minutes ago, packfan98 said: I understand your sentiment. However, the nam was correct on its thermal profiles and I don't believe the track, or precip precidiction, was significantly better than some of the other models. Its wheelhouse is predicting where the rain/snow/sleet lines might setup in my opinion. It has a know bias of overamping a system too far north and with way too much precip. Fair enough, however in reference to the January system the screenshots I have saved matched up closely with radar and it's qpf was pretty close even 60+ hours out for that one. Who knows if it will perform well on this one but I expect other models will trend north and amp up some to be in line closer to what the NAM shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMZ8990 Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 9 minutes ago, snowlover91 said: Fair enough, however in reference to the January system the screenshots I have saved matched up closely with radar and it's qpf was pretty close even 60+ hours out for that one. Who knows if it will perform well on this one but I expect other models will trend north and amp up some to be in line closer to what the NAM shows. What makes you think this would trend north when it has continually moved on a southerly Jog throughout the past few days runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 What do we have this time that we didn't have in January? Anybody want to guess? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 Just now, Cold Rain said: What do we have this time that we didn't have in January? Anybody want to guess? A higher sun angle ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrdaddyman Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 2 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: What do we have this time that we didn't have in January? Anybody want to guess? Blocking? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 1 minute ago, Cold Rain said: What do we have this time that we didn't have in January? Anybody want to guess? very warm antecedent conditions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 2 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: What do we have this time that we didn't have in January? Anybody want to guess? An RC guarantee !? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNC Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 We do have weekend rule, so there's that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 The timing is good with it being overnight/early morning.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 All winners!! Snow for everyone! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 Didn't draw that very well...but it is likely the reason the 50/50 feature isn't hauling booty out. It may very well mitigate a significant north trend...that is assuming the overly amped CMC doesn't turn out to be the case, which I kind of doubt. My expectation is that the shortwave will trend stronger, precip more expansive, and the cold very marginal (but just cold enough), as we move in. This will be for the same reasons it usually does. Once it's sampled better tomorrow, we'll know more definitively what legit expectations should be. I would forecast a 1-3" snowfall across N NC at this point, probably starting out as rain. I think that's a reasonable forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 2 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: All winners!! Snow for everyone! Thanks Oprah! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 GSP said they would be putting out forecasts/maps for this weekends big snow, in the afternoon package!!!!! I'm on pins and needles! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 12 minutes ago, Snowless in Carrollton said: A higher sun angle ? Lol... right on cue! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 Euro gonna come in like NAM, IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted March 9, 2017 Author Share Posted March 9, 2017 1 minute ago, mackerel_sky said: Euro gonna come in like NAM, IMO Then we could say bye bye to GFS lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 GEM phases the 2nd storm into our weekend wave and goes boom. GFS keeps them separate as a weak wave first, then the 2nd as a Miller B. Slower wave = more likely GEM is right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 I don't have Euro precip maps, but it looks like it would be chilly, but weak with the precip for Sunday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 Where o where has this pattern been.... the ENTIRE winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 EURO has a 996 LP over HAT at 12Z Tues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 Seems like the GGEM incorporating some energy floating over N Mexico in the next day or two that our southern wave phases into by 54 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jshetley Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 24 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: GSP said they would be putting out forecasts/maps for this weekends big snow, in the afternoon package!!!!! I'm on pins and needles! It will show no snow south of HWY 11 in SC and will be right. The GSP metro itself will see all rain and not much of that. Next week is going to be a disaster with this awful return to January. I'm ready for 70's and 80's and storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 What does the euro have for the sat-sun over running event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 The EURO image someone posted above is valid at Tuesday... What does it say for the saturday system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 Euro has a dying primary from this hybrid A/B setup that blocks the HP at 120. This is a blend of the GEM and GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bhamwx205 Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 The EURO image someone posted above is valid at Tuesday... What does it say for the saturday system.less than an inch over all of central and eastern NC Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 Looks like it's the US models against the world with the Sat/Sun system for NC east of the mtns Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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