Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,502
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Weathernoob335
    Newest Member
    Weathernoob335
    Joined

3/11-3/12 Winter Storm


BornAgain13

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 1.2k
  • Created
  • Last Reply
13 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

Until the sun breaks out and everybody skyrockets to the 50s! :(

That March sun angle , yo!

Mack, you're absolutely right. There's a lot of things to overcome in order to get a decent storm. I think the biggest thing to hope for, with this storm, is to achieve high enough precip rates.   

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The usually warm JMA has very cold 850's on Sunday compared to other modeling. Would be a nice snow storm in the upstate if correct.  DWD-icon is a crush for the upstate as well with surface temps at 31/32 Sunday morning and 850's around -3, with significant precip.

Also a good sign that the hi-res NAM has rapidly cooling boundary layer temps Sunday morning supportive of a possible change-over to snow in the upstate.

 

FWIW, both the JMA and DWD-icon has the 850 line south of Columbia, SC at 7am Sunday.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, burrel2 said:

The usually warm JMA has very cold 850's on Sunday compared to other modeling. Would be a nice snow storm in the upstate if correct.  DWD-icon is a crush for the upstate as well with surface temps at 31/32 Sunday morning and 850's around -3, with significant precip.

Also a good sign that the hi-res NAM has rapidly cooling boundary layer temps Sunday morning supportive of a possible change-over to snow in the upstate.

That sounds good! 

Gonna bring back up Cold_Pains concern; that high pressure!? A few days ago, we were seeing wedge signatures and things were looking ok, now the high is in central Canada and somehow going to ridge down over the mountains?? Just not sure this will pan out for the upstate, but seeing flurries mixed with rain, would be a victory in March and as much as I saw in the January blizzard of Oz! :)

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, mackerel_sky said:

That sounds good! 

Gonna bring back up Cold_Pains concern; that high pressure!? A few days ago, we were seeing wedge signatures and things were looking ok, now the high is in central Canada and somehow going to ridge down over the mountains?? Just not sure this will pan out for the upstate, but seeing flurries mixed with rain, would be a victory in March and as much as I saw in the January blizzard of Oz! :)

I'm not getting my hopes up.  95% of the time the 800 to 850 0 degree isotherm makes it 25 to 30 miles further north than any model shows.  I don't expect an exception here, but we're far enough out that if we can get a model consensus of the 0 degree line going from athens, GA to Columbia, SC, we might stand a chance at some flakes. lol

I will chase this storm at my in-law's mountain house on the NC/SC border if it looks like a hit there, so that's all I'm asking for at this point. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

That sounds good! 

Gonna bring back up Cold_Pains concern; that high pressure!? A few days ago, we were seeing wedge signatures and things were looking ok, now the high is in central Canada and somehow going to ridge down over the mountains?? Just not sure this will pan out for the upstate, but seeing flurries mixed with rain, would be a victory in March and as much as I saw in the January blizzard of Oz! :)

We're going to have to rely on your favorite....dynamic cooling!  High pressure placement and strength is always overdone in the LR.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

burrel - I liked the colder temps on the ICON and JMA, but they both look weak on the wave / light on precip.  I'm fine with that (better than amped and warm)...but just wanted to mention it.  Keep the model runs colder, and amp the wave a little close to go time is the winning formula for upstate through southern 1/2 of NC

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, griteater said:

WPC with a "Heavy Snow Possible" area in W NC / E TN on their map for Day 3 (late Saturday)

JL2RSbj.gif

WPC from NOAA showing Heavy Snow for WNC and E. Tenn. for late Saturday night, day 3.  Would like to see a little more before Spring sets in,  :snowing:

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, DopplerWx said:

i know it has been said, but the record warm ssts concern me if we do get it deepening off the coast, could very easily result in the warm nose being more stout than advertised.

Who knows how things change from here, but right now, this is a modest system with precip primarily driven by warm advection (overrunning) with some upper jet support (divergence).  I think the bigger temp concern is getting a cold enough pre-storm air mass in place as opposed to a big warm surge aloft.  Don't think we will see a substantially deepening sfc low 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, fritschy said:

WPC from NOAA showing Heavy Snow for WNC and E. Tenn. for late Saturday night, day 3.  Would like to see a little more before Spring sets in,  :snowing:

That map is amazeballs!! I'm never in the anything snowy hatched area, so giddy up! NAM be rollin, hopefully not right off the tracks! 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...