WeatherNC Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 Unsure what to make of MHX going whole hog at this range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 3 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: Tracking snipe? That's like tracking a Wolfpack bball championship! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 Just now, mackerel_sky said: That's like tracking a Wolfpack bball championship! Capturing a snipe is much easier! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary_Snow95 Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 Ridge is taller so far on the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 Likely a solid NAM run based on H5 at 60, a little more press from the PV in SE Canada, ridge out west a little more stout, embedded sw is sharper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary_Snow95 Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 Just now, WeatherNC said: Likely a solid NAM run based on H5 at 60, a little more press from the PV in SE Canada, ridge out west a little more stout, embedded sw is sharper. Yeah the wave out west is already digging and healthier. I feel like this could be a NC/VA smashjob Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary_Snow95 Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 We're getting NAM'ed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 3 minutes ago, Cary_Snow95 said: We're getting NAM'ed Not even looking at the NAM until we're within 36 hours. Not worried about precip, it's the soundings that will be the problem. 18z GFS was razor thin around 5000ft for MBY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 End game on the NAM, 850-700mb thick close to toasty Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 The cold air mass is pretty damn strong, currently -30 to -50 temps west of the Hudson Bay in Canada, a piece of that is headed our way....would think if anything the models would trend colder not warmer. Need the low to stay weak until it is on the SC coast....this will reduce the warm nose threat, if it amps up to soon then we get mixing issues for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ajr Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 2 minutes ago, WeatherNC said: End game on the NAM, 850-700mb thick close to toasty Can you explain what you're seeing there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 4 minutes ago, ajr said: Can you explain what you're seeing there? This is gonna bomb out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wake4est Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 NAM looks great for rdu Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 Just now, wake4est said: NAM looks great for rdu Not good for 3-4 days out! Ask Rain_Cold! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 Thru 84... I can live with that. Considering it's 84hr NAM, hopefully it'll get even better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted March 9, 2017 Author Share Posted March 9, 2017 The NAM looks like its about to explode at Hr 84... wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 Just now, JoshM said: Thru 84... I can live with that. Considering it's 84hr NAM, hopefully it'll get even better. Looks like you better head to Lincolnton! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 4 minutes ago, wake4est said: NAM looks great for rdu Considering it had 3-4" down for a good chunk of NC with at least another frame worth of snow to go especially in the central and eastern parts I would say it was a great run for the entire state. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 4 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: Not good for 3-4 days out! Ask Rain_Cold! Congrats Frosty, NCSNOW, et al, and VA peeps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 Lot of convergence going on at hr 81 and 84. No doubt if the nam went out another 6 hours it look exactly like Dgex at 18z. Epic springtime paste job. Be a lot of Bradford pear trees in NC wiped out with this run if it verefies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary_Snow95 Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 Just now, Cold Rain said: Congrats Frosty, NCSNOW, et al, and VA peeps. Hey we never had the NAM onboard once last storm. I call this a win Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 2 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: Congrats Frosty, NCSNOW, et al, and VA peeps. Glad to oblige! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 Trends very promising. Gonna actually stay up for the GFS and maybe set a alarm for the Euro! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 1 minute ago, Cary_Snow95 said: Hey we never had the NAM onboard once last storm. I call this a win Wasn't it good for a bit before screwing us? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 Just now, NCSNOW said: Glad to oblige! Lol take plenty of pix for us! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 15 minutes ago, ajr said: Can you explain what you're seeing there? NC is in the right entrance region of a 150kt jet, a favorable environment for bookoo lift. On the thickness plot, you usually want to be < 1540 at 850-700mb and < 1300 at 1000-850mb to not worry about mixing. Plotted against the nomogram it and soundings tell you dominant type. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary_Snow95 Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 Just now, Cold Rain said: Wasn't it good for a bit before screwing us? No I don't think so. I remember seeing it Tuesday night 01/03/17 and it had rain up thru Wake County. It never broke that trend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted March 9, 2017 Author Share Posted March 9, 2017 Wouls love to see GFS get on board like the 0z nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary_Snow95 Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 READ BOTTOM: NOT FROM THIS STORMThis was the NAM 4 days out in JANUARY. It was rainy from get go **Rain Cold** VIA Allan on twitter back in January Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 3 minutes ago, Cary_Snow95 said: No I don't think so. I remember seeing it Tuesday night 01/03/17 and it had rain up thru Wake County. It never broke that trend Ok good deal. I thought we had a run or two that looked good but then it was the first model to trend away. But I don't remember all that well, so you're probably right...in which case, the 81 hr NAM is encouraging! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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