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Mar 10 Clipper


ORH_wxman

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1 minute ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

I agree with Bob.  8-12" is very high

I assume it is the effect of their locked in ranges

This is true, but they are still going 6-10 in a lot of those warning zones, which is also high. I think 3-6 is good for most in SE MA into southern CT, then amounts drop off pretty rapidly as you head north.

HRRR is coming in pretty consistent and isn't throwing out any huge caution flags atm, i think this QPF spread looks like a reasonable outcome.hrrr_t_precip_boston_19.png

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5 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

This is true, but they are still going 6-10 in a lot of those warning zones, which is also high. I think 3-6 is good for most in SE MA into southern CT, then amounts drop off pretty rapidly as you head north.

HRRR is coming in pretty consistent and isn't throwing out any huge caution flags atm, i think this QPF spread looks like a reasonable outcome.imageproxy.php?img=&key=20fe2b78d4e66dffimageproxy.php?img=&key=20fe2b78d4e66dffimageproxy.php?img=&key=20fe2b78d4e66dffhrrr_t_precip_boston_19.png

The HRRR is frequently too wet by a good margin too.

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34 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

That's what every model shows. They're actually a bit too conservative 

I'm curious about what you mean by this.  As you know, the models don't show enough QPF (even the wetter GFS and RGEM) to justify the BOX forecast map under normal circumstances, so I assume you're referring to some other parameter of the models.  What are you seeing on the models that makes you confident that the BOX map is conservative?

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This is true, but they are still going 6-10 in a lot of those warning zones, which is also high. I think 3-6 is good for most in SE MA into southern CT, then amounts drop off pretty rapidly as you head north.

HRRR is coming in pretty consistent and isn't throwing out any huge caution flags atm, i think this QPF spread looks like a reasonable outcome.imageproxy.php?img=&key=20fe2b78d4e66dffimageproxy.php?img=&key=20fe2b78d4e66dffimageproxy.php?img=&key=20fe2b78d4e66dffhrrr_t_precip_boston_19.png

I'd like that

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This is a solid decent plowable event right before a major snowstorm and near record cold this weekend, all-in-all we should all be grateful, except those in the northern sections of the subforum but they will get theirs on monday and tuesday. 

00Z suite looks fine

Great post!

 

lol Tauntonblizz is definitely MPM's twin brother!

 

speaking of MPM..where has he been?  Jeff check the kennebec to see if he fell in??  

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