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Mar 10 Clipper


ORH_wxman

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Figured we should start a new thread for this with today's significant bump north on guidance. We are still in a precarious setup though even with the northward shift..it merely gets us in the game for an advisory snowfall....with the best chance of that being the southern zones as of right now.

The vort energy (or vortmax as often referred as) actually takes a pretty nice track for SNE going near or just south of LI....I'll use the 18z NAM as an example...not because the NAM is the best model, far from it, but because it was handy to grab and the model differences on the vortmax are basically negligible....the issue though is notice how the trough itself is kind fo rounded at the base. We want to sharpen that up a bit and it would both bump the snowfall northward and make it more intense at the same time with more inflow....if we don't see a bit sharper shortwave, then this will likely be mostly a miss save the south coast with probably sub-advisory accums.

 

 

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1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

I think we can take this until 0z thur unless it really shats the bed over the next couple cycles.

If 00z runs go back south, it's likely a whiff job. Most of us really need a bump north at 00z...though status quo will keep the far southern peeps in the game.

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14 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I really like this one For said areas. GEFS agree

But I wouldn't go with the "Slam Dunk" wording at this stage.   This could be flurries at best/or nothing for a lot of folks..especially your area on north.    If at 0z it goes south again..it's over for Friday, so 0z is a big run in that sense.  

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11 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

But I wouldn't go with the "Slam Dunk" wording at this stage.   This could be flurries at best/or nothing for a lot of folks..especially your area on north.    If at 0z it goes south again..it's over for Friday, so 0z is a big run in that sense.  

00z doesn't cement anything. It's not a big run. Relax 

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Not having followed closely recently because of starting a new job... I figured I'd take a closer look given the volume of posts around lunchtime.

 

Anyway.... it looks pretty meh to me... the consensus has been way south for a few days now. We've seen this hiccup runs before, and I'm leaning towards that being the case with 12z today.

my initial guess is maybe Jimmy gets grazed with an inch or so

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5 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Not having followed closely recently because of starting a new job... I figured I'd take a closer look given the volume of posts around lunchtime.

 

Anyway.... it looks pretty meh to me... the consensus has been way south for a few days now. We've seen this hiccup runs before, and I'm leaning towards that being the case with 12z today.

my initial guess is maybe Jimmy gets grazed with an inch or so

Lol the meh king surfaces.

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37 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Not having followed closely recently because of starting a new job... I figured I'd take a closer look given the volume of posts around lunchtime.

 

Anyway.... it looks pretty meh to me... the consensus has been way south for a few days now. We've seen this hiccup runs before, and I'm leaning towards that being the case with 12z today.

my initial guess is maybe Jimmy gets grazed with an inch or so

Congrats on the job. 

We have been awaiting your analysis, it is not the same without the mehs to offset the Jimmys. Need that balance here.

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22 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Congrats on the job. 

We have been awaiting your analysis, it is not the same without the mehs to offset the Jimmys. Need that balance here.

Thanks, appreciate it.

And lol... I've been wrong numerous times... but I'm really not seeing it here... I guess there is maybe some upside if it continues to trend well over the next 48 hours.

Anyway, even 1-3 in the middle of the day in mid march is pretty meh

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