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Winter 2017's Last Gasp

tnweathernut

By tnweathernut,
in Tennessee Valley

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PowellVolz

PowellVolz

Posted
Posted
Somebody just needs to do well with this in the forum area.  Post some pics and we will live vicariously through those.  I consider any snow a complete steal.


I look to be in a good spot in N Knox Co but with 48 out still I'm not holding my breath.


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EastKnox

EastKnox

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, PowellVolz said:

 


That's getting into danger territory to be honest. I want a good snow but not that much with a lot of trees with foliage on them.


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It's mostly just bradford pears and their wild variants right now...I wouldn't care if we could get rid of those nuisance trees.

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Windspeed

Windspeed

Posted
Posted

This event is going to hit trees hard. Love snow or hate snow, it's the combined wet snow hanging around and hard freeze after that will likely hit fruit trees hard across the upper Valley.

This also affects wildlife via natural nut and berry foliage and vegetation. Acorns, hickories, walnuts, pecans are already budding.

Every year there is a variance or give-off between increasing warmth and the occasional hard freeze and frosts as we go through March. But a wet snow event combined with a hard freeze is tough on trees. Again, not unusual, but an event like this does have a big impact.

I might add the exceptional above average temperatures from February aren't helping matters leading into a bitter cold and snowy stretch.


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Carvers Gap

Carvers Gap

Posted
Posted
  
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Morristown TN
158 PM EST Thu Mar 9 2017

NCZ060-061-TNZ012>018-035>047-067>074-081>087-098>102-VAZ001-002-
005-006-008-101900-
Cherokee-Clay-Scott TN-Campbell-Claiborne-Hancock-Hawkins-
Sullivan-Johnson-Morgan-Anderson-Union-Grainger-Hamblen-
Northwest Cocke-Cocke Smoky Mountains-Northwest Greene-
Southeast Greene-Washington TN-Unicoi-Northwest Carter-
Southeast Carter-Roane-Loudon-Knox-Jefferson-NW Blount-
Blount Smoky Mountains-North Sevier-Sevier Smoky Mountains-
Sequatchie-Bledsoe-Rhea-Meigs-McMinn-Northwest Monroe-
Southeast Monroe-Marion-Hamilton-Bradley-West Polk-East Polk-Lee-
Wise-Scott-Russell-Washington-
Including the cities of Murphy, Hayesville, Oneida, La Follette,
Tazewell, Sneedville, Rogersville, Kingsport, Bristol,
Mountain City, Wartburg, Clinton, Oak Ridge, Maynardville,
Rutledge, Morristown, Newport, Cosby, Greeneville, Cedar Creek,
Johnson City, Erwin, Elizabethton, Roan Mountain, Kingston,
Lenoir City, Knoxville, Dandridge, Maryville, Cades Cove,
Sevierville, Gatlinburg, Dunlap, Pikeville, Dayton, Decatur,
Athens, Madisonville, Coker Creek, Jasper, Chattanooga,
Cleveland, Benton, Ducktown, Jonesville, Wise, Norton, Gate City,
Lebanon, and Abingdon
158 PM EST Thu Mar 9 2017 /1258 PM CST Thu Mar 9 2017/

...Widespread Snowfall expected Saturday night into Sunday Morning
with much colder air anticipated over the weekend into next
week...

Winter will return this weekend as a system brings widespread
snowfall to the area Saturday night into Sunday morning. Snow
accumulations along and north of I-40 will be in the 2-5 inch
range with locally higher amounts above 3500 feet. Elsewhere,
expect accumulations of 1-3 inches will be possible. The snow will
be heavy enough to cause scattered to numerous travel issues
across the region late Saturday into early Sunday. Temperatures
should warm enough on Sunday to alleviate most travel issues by
Sunday afternoon. In addition, much colder temperatures are
expected next week with morning lows in the 20s most morning with
teens possible in NE TN and SW VA.

Please stay tuned for further updates over the next couple of
days.
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Carvers Gap

Carvers Gap

Posted
Posted
Excellent write-ups(this and the above) by MRX.... 

FXUS64 KMRX 092003
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
303 PM EST Thu Mar 9 2017

.Long Term...(Friday night through Wednesday)...
Much colder air will continue to flow into our from the northwest
as we move into the weekend setting us up for some winter
precipitation Saturday night into Sunday. A shortwave will be
diving out of the northern Great Plains towards our area and a low
south of us tracks to the northeast. In addition there will be
atmospheric divergence above us as we sit in the right rear
quadrant of an upper level jet leading to another favorable
synoptic ingredient. Precipitation will move in from the
west/northwest Saturday night and will initially begin as rain for
most of the forecast area. As temperatures drop overnight it will
transition to snow...Forecast soundings suggest that the
transition will come relatively quickly once temperatures drop low
enough and we should hopefully not really see much in the way of
icy precipitation. With recent warm temperatures the ground will
be pretty warm which could help melt initial snowfall... However,
with this event occurring at night and some moderate to even
briefly heavy snowfall the melting process on the surface could
quickly end. There is a wide model spread when it comes to
snowfall totals which leads to a decreased confidence in this
aspect of the forecast. The NAM and the GFS are more bullish with
snowfall amounts while the SREF and ECMWF are lighter. NAM/GFS
have more moisture in the atmosphere to work with and also have
moderate to heavy snowfall around midnight through the early
morning hours. Have not bitten off on the higher amounts since
model spread is pretty wide and with the (very few) winter events
this year the GFS/NAM have tended to back off a bit as the event
draws closer. Snow should quickly exit our area by midday on
Sunday and we should actually be able to see the sun for a while.

Another trough will swing through the northern part of the country
and a front will sweep through Monday night/Tuesday. This will bring
another round winter weather, but model differences on the timing of
the track of this system make confidence pretty low for the Monday
night/Tuesday system. We will dry out again after this second
system, but the cooler temperatures will stick around through the
end of the work week.

&&
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Carvers Gap

Carvers Gap

Posted
Posted
35 minutes ago, PowellVolz said:


I look to be in a good spot in N Knox Co but with 48 out still I'm not holding my breath.


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Right.  I think I was in a 14" bullseye last night.  Now, I am much less. I think we see some minor changes as the entirety of the energy comes into the West coast tonight.  Once sampled, I think the forecast gets locked down pretty quick, but might not be until tomorrow night.  Overall, I still like the I-40 corridor northward.  The MRX graphic is in line w my thinking.  I think Spring and longer days might add a bit of extra juice to the system.  All going to depend on how much precip we have to work with...I think the cold will be in place.  

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BlunderStorm

BlunderStorm

Posted
Posted

At this point I am about to hang up my hat, after 3 consecutive losses in snowfall across three runs from multiple models. Perhaps I should be happy to see snow on the projected screen but I can only look at it now with a bit of numbing disappointment as even though it's March, standards will of course rise when there is a winter storm showing up later in the week. After 0z if I see no improvement I won't punt the system but I may pretty much call a (metaphorical) Hail Mary, cross my fingers, ignore the computer models, and hope for the best while expecting nothing. I think this also applies to (Kentucky) as well. Most of us aren't meteorologists and we generally speaking do not have much experience with it as a whole but there is a certain rush to predicting what will occur and seeing yourself in that digital bullseye! I see myself as a fan of weather and its processes as I believe many others here do especially the lurkers. If This Winter storm is a complete bust then if what the models are hinting at are right AND THAT'S A BIG IF... those of us in and east of the Cumberlands may get a 2nd shot on Tuesday.I should also bring up the cold is one thing that isn't in short supply that's for sure especially for March and some lows in the teens will be quite a shock to the system. Even up here I noticed on my way to school that the Dogwood trees had bloomed much to my surprise. I'm sure somebody will at least get hit with something significant.;)

 

never tell me the odds.png

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John1122

John1122

Posted
Posted

18z GFS was similar to 12z. 3-6 inches across the area. These systems tend to be less south and west than modeling shows. Last January 20th when my area got 6.5 inches, only the RGEM ever got the precip axis even close. The others had the max snow south and west of my area. So that's something to consider if you're in the more northern areas. I also usually add 50 miles north on almost every precip shield on overrunning events.  

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Olhausen

Olhausen

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, John1122 said:

18z GFS was similar to 12z. 3-6 inches across the area. These systems tend to be less south and west than modeling shows. Last January 20th when my area got 6.5 inches, only the RGEM ever got the precip axis even close. The others had the max snow south and west of my area. So that's something to consider if you're in the more northern areas. I also usually add 50 miles north on almost every precip shield on overrunning events.  

I'm in White House Tennessee and I just have a feeling this system is going to over perform compared to what the models are showing. Right now the heaviest precipitation is just a little to far south but it wouldn't take much if the models are off just a tad. As someone else stated the cold will be there in the northern part of Tennessee.

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Windspeed

Windspeed

Posted
Posted
I might have to go snow chasing in NETN since things are trending downward for SWVA in terms of accumulation. It's rarely a good thing when you're in the bullseye 5+ days out as we all know too well.

Too early. We're still 48 hrs out. If the downstream block is even slightly further north and east, SWVA could take a big hit. Keep in mind, it will be colder and any precip will be all snow. Timing is also an issue. I'm not confident on west and south trends. Typically you want to be on the northern edge on a system like this if you want the bigger snow totals. The big issue with the initial system is overall QPF. The Euro is admittedly too dry. It's still too early to throw in the towel for significant accumulations but 2-5 inches is still very possible as far northeast as Wytheville and Blacksburg on the initial event. Also, you may get more on the second event than areas further south into East Tn and the Eastern Tennessee Valley.

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John1122

John1122

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, Kentucky said:

Ha Ha, parts of TN might hit the snow lottery twice this year, and Corbin likely gets nada. You don't see that often but that snow map perfectly caps off this winter for me. Happy for those that get snow though.

JKL is still throwing out 3 inches for their Tennessee border counties, but I feel you on the lack of snow. 3.5 inches here is more than you've gotten this year but still the lowest total at my location ever back as far as I've got any record. 

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