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March med-long range disco thread 2


WxUSAF

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3 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Pretty hard to put faith in ensembles, especially snow maps.  As someone pointed out earlier, they looked great for Sunday just a few days ago.

That's very true.  But most are just commenting on what we see that's available right now in this moment; this actually showed up the other day as well (and maybe before?).  We can't see what the ensembles will look like in a couple or so days...until a couple or so days from now!  And as of this moment, it's a pretty good look even beyond what the snow maps indicate (which as you imply are perhaps a bit questionable to rely on totally).  Others have mentioned the caveats and potential problems that could occur, but also that the Tuesday time frame is perhaps a better setup than what we were originally hoping for this weekend.  I'll run with that for now.  Of course, this may well all go the way of the formerly enticing Sunday event (whether squashed to nothing or some other screw job to our north), but we'll see.

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Just now, Bob Chill said:

At least it's a WV to OBX transfer. That's not the worst but further south with the NS is obviously better. Sure is trending south run over run. No doubt about that. 

Yeah, was gonna mention...it's not the best, but it's not bad either, especially sitting at this time frame.   We need this thing to dig for oil

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6 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

And that one is the great mystery to me.

All the time we have been told that "sampling" is over rated and that data is good over the Pacific, so I am at a loss as to why the models "see" them as strong and then reality is that they are weak as water.

Just a guess but other then sampling a tendency to hold vorts together on their track across the pacific could be part of it. Or an overall bias of over estimating those features. Or most likely just chaos playing its role the further out in time you go. 

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Just now, mitchnick said:

OT:  Did they make this site when Atari first came out?

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2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

At least it's a WV to OBX transfer. That's not the worst but further south with the NS is obviously better. Sure is trending south run over run. No doubt about that. 

Yes...not "great" yet, but much better.  Also certainly better than those several GEFS members that had the primary low in Ohio (I know, different model here, but anyhow).

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1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

Eh, not too good for the DC folks and burbs.  Pretty classic NE MD and northward miller B storm. 

Considering the trends lately, I disagree.  That thing is so close to phasing where we need it!

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1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

Eh, not too good for the DC folks and burbs.  Pretty classic NE MD and northward miller B storm. 

It still shows 2-3" for DC... we would take that... but we just need it the SLP to be a bit further south... with this winter... may be a good bet lol

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1 minute ago, yoda said:

It still shows 2-3" for DC... we would take that... but we just need it the SLP to be a bit further south... with this winter... may be a good bet lol

Eh, what the model shows verbatim can't override my memory. I know exactly how that scenario plays out in my yard. And it's not good. 

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2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Eh, not too good for the DC folks and burbs.  Pretty classic NE MD and northward miller B storm. 

How did the 00Z look on this (can't recall, didn't really see it earlier), i.e., is this still actually an improvement?  Get that primary a bit more south of WV, and we'd fare a lot better I'd think.

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1 minute ago, Always in Zugzwang said:

How did the 00Z look on this (can't recall, didn't really see it earlier), i.e., is this still actually an improvement?  Get that primary a bit more south of WV, and we'd fare a lot better I'd think.

There's really no comparison. 0z was NS only and a cut up through the interior of the NE. There is no transfer. So this run was a wholesale change for sure. 

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