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March med-long range disco thread 2


WxUSAF

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Just now, Bob Chill said:

Yea, didn't like how far north the vort is. May as well bat the cycle of ways to fail. Haven't had a miller b screwgie yet. 

Well, another cycle, another solution.  I like the fact that there's still something there tho.  Plenty of time to either dig or find a s/w to phase with

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1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

Well, another cycle, another solution.  I like the fact that there's still something there tho.  Plenty of time to either dig or find a s/w to phase with

Yep, it will change every cycle. We need a dig into the TN valley to survive a miller b. 

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7 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Yea, didn't like how far north the vort is. May as well bat the cycle of ways to fail. Haven't had a miller b screwgie yet. 

Is there any link between the northern shift on the weekend storm and the position of the vort for Tuesday?

Also, why is this now a Miller B instead of a Miller A?

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1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

Well, I can see the CMC 500 maps at 174 (skipped to that) and if that's not an old run, it's loaded

 

gem_z500_mslp_us_24.png

I saw the same thing. It loads to 138 then directly to 174.  Looks similar to 12z at the same timeframe. Now to see exactly how it gets there...

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I don't even have to look to guess the problem. If Sunday was more amped it probably stole the southern stream energy so the Tuesday system became northern steam dominant. That's how it went with all the ensemble members from today. Very suppressed Sunday solutions had miller a lows Tuesday. Stronger Sunday members had northern dominant miller b. 

So if Sunday trends north it better damn well come all the way and crush us because it will ruin the setup for Tuesday either way if it snows just south of us. 

 

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CMC is a near wet dream for next week. Keeps the Sunday storm suppressed, keeps some energy back in the Gulf, and then shoots a low up the coast to meet NS energy. Could use the low to be a tick east but yeah. Definitely shows the possibility should Sunday's storm stay suppressed

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Just now, psuhoffman said:

I don't even have to look to guess the problem. If Sunday was more amped it probably stole the southern stream energy so the Tuesday system became northern steam dominant. That's how it went with all the ensemble members from today. Very suppressed Sunday solutions had miller a lows Tuesday. Stronger Sunday members had northern dominant miller b. 

So if Sunday trends north it better damn well come all the way and crush us because it will ruin the setup for Tuesday either way if it snows just south of us. 

 

Yup...CMC had a very suppressed Sunday system and look at the beast it's showing now.   

So, in this weird twillight zone world, we want to root for a weak, suppressed miss on Sunday.

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