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March med-long range disco thread 2


WxUSAF

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2 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

That UK 144 is loaded for sure.  I like the H5 even better then the GGEM honestly.  Dangerous to project without surface info or anything beyond 144 but that probably ends well for us. 

Gefs member P002 has something similar. It goes to rain here, but it's a 48hr storm for upstate NY through central NE.   

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As long as your willing to take a deep breath, say serenity now, and let Sunday go, the EPS was a good run imo. The signal for Sunday is totally gone. Nothing there anywhere near us. But even though we lost about 2-2.5" of snow from  Sunday the mean snowfall increases for the run by about 1/2" DC south and about 1.5" northwest.

The losses Sunday were offset by a significant increase in the 6-10 period. Then another signal around day 15 which the gefs is all over too but that's kinda crazy late so I'm ignoring that for now. Who knows the weather can be crazy so perhaps it's real but we can stress that later if it's still there. 

The 6-10 is from 2 threats. If you want to see them look at the whole ggem run it's got them both and apparently a decent cluster of the EPS follows that evolution and hits us with one or the other. 

I let Sunday go last night so seeing my mean snowfall increase fairly significantly despite losing about 1.5" of fake hope Sunday snow feels like a win. If you account for the loss in snow Sunday the jump next week is pretty significant. 

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5 minutes ago, RidingTheModelWithMostSnow said:

You cant Jinx them with their playoff track record.  They are like the models this year... you think you have something good and then they just fade away

He rightfully mocking me for saying score one for the cmc since the event hasn't even happened yet. 

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4 minutes ago, Amped said:

Gefs member P002 has something similar. It goes to rain here, but it's a 48hr storm for upstate NY through central NE.   

Keep that idea and shift it 300 miles south like the Sunday storm and we're good. Did people miss that the navgem and JMA have the storm next week too?  I think everyone is where I was last night bummed about Sunday but because I'm north of you and I just didn't like the feel I was getting I resigned myself to the fail and moved on. So today having already moved past Sunday I'm seeing the positive signs for Tuesday while others are still dealing with the loss of Sunday.  But the storm next week has enough support from op runs and ensembles that if the Sunday tease had never been there we would be getting excited for the potential today I think. 

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1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

Keep that idea and shift it 300 miles south like the Sunday storm and we're good. Did people miss that the navgem and JMA have the storm next week too?  I think everyone is where I was last night bummed about Sunday but because I'm north of you and I just didn't like the feel I was getting I resigned myself to the fail and moved on. So today having already moved past Sunday I'm seeing the positive signs for Tuesday while others are still dealing with the loss of Sunday.  But the storm next week has enough support from op runs and ensembles that if the Sunday tease had never been there we would be getting excited for the potential today I think. 

or the potential for the rug to be pulled out once again

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1 hour ago, BristowWx said:

This Sunday deal was a little more painful having the cold air in place for March.  and we never go from 12 inches to 8 or something reasonable...its been more like 12 inches to what storm in like 2 runs from the 6-5 day mark. 

Painful as it is, the reality is there never was a storm. It was just a figment of the model's imagination.

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1 minute ago, Wonderdog said:

Painful as it is, the reality is there never was a storm. It was just a figment of the model's imagination.

Yeah...it's just some set-ups look so good it's like "no way that can fail"...cold air, storm from the west so no cutter, decent low...we got this.  Lucy again but I do fall for it most times especially if it's trending south.  And I will again and again no matter what I say.

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1 hour ago, ers-wxman1 said:

There is no threat week after next. It's over. 100% confidence. I appreciate your posts. Always respect what you have to say, but all year there has been medium to long range potential which ends up being a Plains, New England or a west coast storm. Progressive pattern with northern track which favors La Niña pattern. Models will only retract when the event draws closer. 

I really did need to hear that.  Thank you ers-wxman1.  This was that much needed dose of reality.  

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33 minutes ago, RidingTheModelWithMostSnow said:

You cant Jinx them with their playoff track record.  They are like the models this year... you think you have something good and then they just fade away

The fact Tampa probably ends up in that 8 spot you can already see where their luck is going.  That or they get the Isles who I think were 4-0 against them this season

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21 minutes ago, RidingTheModelWithMostSnow said:

or the potential for the rug to be pulled out once again

Of course there is that. But to be fair I'm not moving the goal posts here. If you go back several days I've openly liked the thread around the 14/15th better. I wasn't going to rain on the parade when Sunday looked good and there was a moment there where I doubted my gut feelings on the pattern and thought maybe Sunday is the one.  But overall from range the pattern seemed more conducive for the 14th. More amplified trough. Blocking relaxing. It has a lot going for it. Right now it's a better threat then Sunday. I just thought it was all along. 

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7 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

You're trying too hard.

It's effortless lol ;-). I just look at stuff the way it was done years before ensembles, teleconnections and 70 different models were introduced. Take out the digital foolery and look closely at what the atmosphere is doing through a forecast funnel from the top to the bottom...most important is what's taking place in the H3-H5 range...looking for jet patterns, pot vort and watching verification. It's all in the jet. Beyond day 5, and especially day 7-10 is all models initializing and simulating a billion things at once and projecting where it could go. Reality settles in after that.

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6 minutes ago, ers-wxman1 said:

It's effortless lol ;-). I just look at stuff the way it was done years before ensembles, teleconnections and 70 different models were introduced. Take out the digital foolery and look closely at what the atmosphere is doing through a forecast funnel from the top to the bottom...most important is what's taking place in the H3-H5 range...looking for jet patterns, pot vort and watching verification. It's all in the jet. Beyond day 5, and especially day 7-10 is all models initializing and simulating a billion things at once and projecting where it could go. Reality settles in after that.

Did you think the Sunday thing was a fail even when most models had it pretty solid?  I'd like to know what to look for next time just to learn.

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Just now, BristowWx said:

Did you think the Sunday thing was a fail even when most models had it pretty solid?  I'd like to know what to look for next time just to learn.

 

Ridge develops out west, but jet remains progressive without much amplification over the eastern U.S. check out the water vapor and verify what you see with the 500 height anomaly in the model. Shortwave is not very amplified, nothing to phase with. Low itself develops along the baroclinic zone (region with strong temperature gradient) which is the arctic front. It's south of us with cold high pressure overtaking the pattern and suppressing anything well to our south and east. Nothing to block the low in or phase two jets together.

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2 minutes ago, ers-wxman1 said:

 

Ridge develops out west, but jet remains progressive without much amplification over the eastern U.S. check out the water vapor and verify what you see with the 500 height anomaly in the model. Shortwave is not very amplified, nothing to phase with. Low itself develops along the baroclinic zone (region with strong temperature gradient) which is the arctic front. It's south of us with cold high pressure overtaking the pattern and suppressing anything well to our south and east. Nothing to block the low in or phase two jets together.

Makes sense every run was progressively south as the front got stronger the vort got weaker. I suppose if the arctic front had slowed a bit and met the vort at exactly the right time we might have had a chance.  But that would have needed perfect timing.  Thanks for the response.  

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12 minutes ago, ers-wxman1 said:

 

Ridge develops out west, but jet remains progressive without much amplification over the eastern U.S. check out the water vapor and verify what you see with the 500 height anomaly in the model. Shortwave is not very amplified, nothing to phase with. Low itself develops along the baroclinic zone (region with strong temperature gradient) which is the arctic front. It's south of us with cold high pressure overtaking the pattern and suppressing anything well to our south and east. Nothing to block the low in or phase two jets together.

While I agree with what you say, I strongly believe the biggest culprit is the vort has been modeled weaker and weaker every run and this is long before it approaches us. To play devil's advocate, if the vort ends up being a good bit more amped as it traverses the rockies, it will have a much easier time punching into the suppressed flow as it crosses the mid section of the CONUS. Combine that with the potential that models are overdoing confluence/suppression downstream and it could be a significant storm without needing to phase. 

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14 minutes ago, ers-wxman1 said:

 

Ridge develops out west, but jet remains progressive without much amplification over the eastern U.S. check out the water vapor and verify what you see with the 500 height anomaly in the model. Shortwave is not very amplified, nothing to phase with. Low itself develops along the baroclinic zone (region with strong temperature gradient) which is the arctic front. It's south of us with cold high pressure overtaking the pattern and suppressing anything well to our south and east. Nothing to block the low in or phase two jets together.

Curious what's your analysis of the Tuesday threat then. 

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32 minutes ago, ers-wxman1 said:

It's effortless lol ;-). I just look at stuff the way it was done years before ensembles, teleconnections and 70 different models were introduced. Take out the digital foolery and look closely at what the atmosphere is doing through a forecast funnel from the top to the bottom...most important is what's taking place in the H3-H5 range...looking for jet patterns, pot vort and watching verification. It's all in the jet. Beyond day 5, and especially day 7-10 is all models initializing and simulating a billion things at once and projecting where it could go. Reality settles in after that.

Amen

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7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Curious what's your analysis of the Tuesday threat then. 

I'm just very skeptical. Trend has been for less and less amplication as time goes on. While the pattern currently simulated looks good, like all things this winter that has ended up overdone. 

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