Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,502
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Weathernoob335
    Newest Member
    Weathernoob335
    Joined

March med-long range disco thread 2


WxUSAF

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 1.6k
  • Created
  • Last Reply
2 minutes ago, Cary_Snow95 said:

The vortex over the NE is south compared to the GFS at the same time. 

The upstream is just as important as downstream.  Way too many people look at one component and think that is IT when in reality each potential setup is a myriad of subtle factors all playing off each other.  Each can influence or offset the others.  The PV to our northeast is one of the more major factors, but what has been causing the trend south over the last 48 hours is mostly a weakening trend in the vort and associated trough coming in off the Pacific.  The energy is noticeably weaker each run ejecting from the Rockies into the plains.  You can see it right away and that downstream is going to end up a suppressed washed out garbage solution because yes the PV is going to create some suppressive flow.  We need a healthy vort to offset that.  A healthier system (like the NAM) would pump enough ridging in front as it enters the influence of the PV to allow more amplification and a turn up the coast to some degree.  The PV has been there and waffles slightly run to run but there is no overall trend south with that.  Its in the same spot it was when we had those 30" along the Mason Dixon line model runs the other day.  The difference is the weaker energy from the west.  So I would say a trend stronger in that like is more important then a slight change in the PV.  There are TWO ways to get this back north, weaken or shift the PV northeast OR strengthen the energy coming in from the west, or a little bit of both.  South is definitely a threat but at the range we are not such a minor change in those two factors is VERY possible.  Everything is still on the table IMO.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

In a situation like this, wouldn't it make complete sense that the NAM would have guidance north of the other global models due to its tendency to amplify systems more than other models? More amplification = less suppression by the PV?

That being said, NAM nailed the northern side of the blizzard last year while others were pushing further south missing NY/NE with the heavy stuff (but of course, little comparison between that system and what we're looking at for this weekend).

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said:

Looks like a slightly weaker cold press for the Friday event through 66...hopefully a harbinger of things to come. 

These slight shifts in the Friday thing north can't hurt, but keep in mind back when we were seeing those super amped up solutions that Friday wave was up in NY State.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

With the friday system exiting a bit earlier and further north + the storm entering the NW is a little higher in latitude, this run will give some clues irt how much we are fighting down the line with the sunday storm. My early guess is it *should* come north a little but if it doesn't then we are still a good ways away from getting things right. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • WxUSAF locked and unpinned this topic

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...