Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,502
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Weathernoob335
    Newest Member
    Weathernoob335
    Joined

March med-long range disco thread 2


WxUSAF

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 1.6k
  • Created
  • Last Reply
2 minutes ago, CoastalBecs said:

The ensembles are holding tight and keeping us in the game. What did the euro ensembles show?

 

2 hours ago, showmethesnow said:

Eps snowfall output for those that don't have it.

Friday Event: Trace amounts on the means have pulled a hair north to just south of DC. 1/2 inch line has shifted 25 miles south to where it now runs the length of the Mason Dixon line. One inch line has withdrawn significantly north and west into northern Pa and the mountains of western PA. The lower resolution control run matches the op run to a tee with the strip of snow running through MD, heaviest strip of 1/2 inch running roughly from Dc and eastward to the shore. Looking at individual members show that roughly 3/5 favor a non-event and the other 2/5 have a solution that favors around the MD/PA border and north with trace amounts to several inches. 

Sunday event:

Nailing this time frame is somewhat difficult because we are seeing an uptick with snowfall immediately afterwards. Haven't looked closely into why this is occurring yet but have to question whether we may be evolving into a new solution in regards to this storm. (For better or worse is anyone's guess) Maybe interaction with the energy that shows up on the op to the west/northwest trailing the southern low? So my numbers will be based on a cutoff of 12z Monday. Snowfall means still favor a southerly track of heaviest snowfall through southern Va as was shown on the 12Z. Snowfall totals have also been cut down somewhat region wide (guestimate of 1/2 inch on avg to the north to an inch on avg to the south in VA). Through the whole DC/Balt region we are now seeing a one inch mean vs the 1 1/2 inch seen on the 12z. Control run closely mirrors the op run with snowfall amounts and the max strip running on the VA/NCA border. After looking at the individual members I do believe that the ensembles are hinting at the possibility of a different solution in coming runs. Will not bother counting and parsing through it at this point but I would say that roughly half the members now show little to no event and the other half that do, favor the more southerly solution.

Post Sunday event to day 10:

Will not even bother trying to sort out what we were considering the follow up storm because the picture at this point is just too muddied with the almost continuous slight uptick with snow through this period.  So will give 10 day totals instead. The 2 inch line runs south of DC and Baltimore with the 2 1/2 inch running through the northwest suburbs. 3 inch line runs the Mason Dixon line. This is a reduction from the 12z which saw the 3 1/2 inch line just south of the cities and the 4 inch line in the NW suburbs.

Totals through 15 days:

WE have also seen a reduction through 15 days. 3 inch line runs through the cities with the 3 1/2 in the NW suburbs vs. 12Z which had the 4 inch line just south of the cities with the 5 inch line in the farther suburbs to the west.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, mappy said:

ha what a step backwards. MBY gets more from friday morning (4.5) than sunday (1) 

I think Friday ends up being "our" storm....and Sunday is "their" storm if ya get my drift :)

all good w/ me.  Snow on snow and maybe more snow Tuesday.  I'll take it.

6z wasnt discouraging either...if you look at snow maps.  Brings Fridays a little south for yall and Sunday....well thats up in the air.

Nut

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Still don't get the interest in the Friday event. I don't see how that's really accumulating for anyone except maybe some of the usual spots, but I'm still a bit skeptical there with surface temps and rates that aren't great. Maybe I'm missing something.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, PennQuakerGirl said:

Woo! Just saw that at the same time as my "Indian Dance" mid-term grade: 99% -- only deduction was for dropping my wrist.  

 

Seriously though, this looks like it's going to be an interesting track over the next couple of days.  

Indian Snow Dance? If so we now know who to blame if we fail in the coming week or so. Just couldn't keep that dang gone wrist up, could you? :P

Link to comment
Share on other sites

16 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

I think Friday ends up being "our" storm....and Sunday is "their" storm if ya get my drift :)

all good w/ me.  Snow on snow and maybe more snow Tuesday.  I'll take it.

6z wasnt discouraging either...if you look at snow maps.  Brings Fridays a little south for yall and Sunday....well thats up in the air.

Nut

 

and neither will be my storm per the 6z GFS

Link to comment
Share on other sites

23 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

As LWX said...shortwaves are over the PAC...more time needed to sort it out...I can live with that for now

There is still the potential for a decent storm in our area , just as much chance as nothing at all. Too early for sure. Small changes in the Pac with the PNA and also the future movement of the PV and the related changes in the NAO block as well. 

DT was commenting that importance of the Pac in the Sunday event was not being given enough credit . While others were saying the small changes in Canada have major implications in our area for the potential storm's impact on Sunday.  

HM originally thought, not sure now, that there would be a last in series storm, sometime  next week, I believe Tuesday or Wednesday. Of course yesterday the Euro and EPS showed some changes in the duration of the block,  so that outcome is not so certain.

Everything is a domino effect modeling and the weather. Exciting still to watch,  but I do not want to over commit due to this winter's reputation and how there have been multiple examples that supressed outcomes do indeed happen in March .  Even systems weakening  is another example.  

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

18 minutes ago, RidingTheModelWithMostSnow said:

and neither will be my storm per the 6z GFS

I hate to say it, but somewhere in the pit of my stomach, there is a feeling that a NO SNOW cone could start in western md, and come right up through my neck of the woods.

this is based on a potential northern correction for storm 1, and storm 2 staying too far south.  I'd be huffin cirrus w/ both.

Not likely as I think #2 can and will correct somewhat north of current and at least give me a little lovin.

Nut

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, frd said:

HM originally thought, not sure now, that there would be a last in series storm, sometime  next week, I believe Tuesday or Wednesday. Of course yesterday the Euro and EPS showed some changes in the duration of the block,  so that outcome is not so certain  

Having nothing to do with any current NWP output but everything to do with history, I keep looking for the first indications of and Archambault Event somewhere down the line as blocking breaks down and the arctic air retreats. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, das said:

Having nothing to do with any current NWP output but everything to do with history, I keep looking for the first indications of and Archambault Event somewhere down the line as blocking breaks down and the arctic air retreats. 

Excellent point !  And having some extremely cold air North of us in place is a good thing.

Have a question, if you can reply.  

Looking at the NAO ensemble forecasts on the American model I do see a sudden uptick in the NAO forecast basically right now, then down and back up.

To have a true Archambault event is it more important to just have a sudden change from negative to positive, or do you need to achieve say a negative 2 or negative 3 NAO and then swing up to positive?

So, basically is a Archambault event dependent on both the  magnitude of change,  as well as the change itself ?

I always thought, but not certain, you needed a really negative NAO to suddenly jump to plus 2 or something and for the block to totally  breakdown to meet the definition of true Archambault.

 

Thanks   

 

 

  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • WxUSAF locked and unpinned this topic

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...