pasnownut Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Just now, anotherman said: Horst: My big concern from the start has been a changeover to sleet across SE PA. Step outside and you'll feel a SE breeze off the ocean...already! But as per the 18z on Pivotal only one panel at 825 gets close. see below 700s fine 925's fine I'll ok w/ that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 I hope so - I'm in York for the storm so I'm hoping I'm far enough west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yak Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 20 minutes ago, canderson said: Tom Russell at CBS21 going quite a bit less heavy. Ugh! That's a horrible presentation even if the idea of warm air aloft into Berks and Lancaster isn't. So... should I prepare for 10-12 inches or "some wintry mix".? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Just now, anotherman said: I hope so - I'm in York for the storm so I'm hoping I'm far enough west. pal, that deform band is parked over you. verbatim you are sitting pretty. and if this map verified, I'm totally fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted March 13, 2017 Author Share Posted March 13, 2017 I wonder if NortheastPAWx is able to come home for this storm. It looks like at long last that the Scranton/WB area is going to be part of ground zero for this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Here is the NCAR ensemble. Don't know much about it, except it's based on wrf-arw. Here's a link to its about sectionhttps://ensemble.ucar.edu/about.phpSent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Just now, yak said: Ugh! That's a horrible presentation even if the idea of warm air aloft into Berks and Lancaster isn't. So... should I prepare for 10-12 inches or "some wintry mix".? he better turn his email/twitter feeds off. and go on a LONG vacation. His fan club gonna b pissed. Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Some of my NWS buddies always said "you have to smell the rain to get the heaviest snow". This will be this case with this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 RGM keeps LSV all Snow. Chester/Lanco line is as close as it gets. I'd think pingers might mix in for an hour or 2 but all 18zs show 850's crashing after and its a tight window for sleet. for now. I hope the trend west stops for sleet. Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yak Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Just now, pasnownut said: he better turn his email/twitter feeds off. and go on a LONG vacation. His fan club gonna b pissed. Nut I don't know the guy but that map reads to me: "We expect a general 8-12 inch snowfall over the Lower Susquehanna Valley with the higher amounts to the east". Not unreasonable. I don't know why that requires a map to show that the 8-10 vs. 10-12 inch line will perfectly bisect their two biggest viewer areas in Harrisburg and York so that anything 8-12 is a big win. Lancaster and Reading might mix and they're not our big fan base so let's just say that they might have a major to crippling snowstorm or "some wintry mix". And apparently there is a very small Bermuda triangle in southern York County where good and evil are so diametrically opposed that the precipitation parts to prevent anything from reaching the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Anyone with good links to any of the HRRR models that are good to use to locate banding?Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Just now, yak said: I don't know the guy but that map reads to me: "We expect a general 8-12 inch snowfall over the Lower Susquehanna Valley with the higher amounts to the east". Not unreasonable. I don't know why that requires a map to show that the 8-10 vs. 10-12 inch line will perfectly bisect their two biggest viewer areas in Harrisburg and York so that anything 8-12 is a big win. Lancaster and Reading might mix and they're not our big fan base so let's just say that they might have a major to crippling snowstorm or "some wintry mix". And apparently there is a very small Bermuda triangle in southern York County where good and evil are so diametrically opposed that the precipitation parts to prevent anything from reaching the ground. posting a map that says "wintery mix" while Chester county is under a blizzard warning. either he has a crystal ball or almost all other guidance is wrong. with a storm of this magnitude...quite misleading. Not arguing, but thats just my opinion. welcome to the forum Good luck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Just now, Jns2183 said: Anyone with good links to any of the HRRR models that are good to use to locate banding? Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=hrrr®ion=neus&pkg=T850&runtime=2017031320&fh=34&xpos=0&ypos=245 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=hrrr®ion=neus&pkg=T850&runtime=2017031320&fh=34&xpos=0&ypos=245Thank youSent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Just now, Jns2183 said: Thank you Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro no prob. Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 11 minutes ago, pasnownut said: http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=hrrr®ion=neus&pkg=T850&runtime=2017031320&fh=34&xpos=0&ypos=245 That's a good link. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 The radar looks beautiful to our south & west. Precip from VA all the way deep into the Gulf of Mexico all heading our way. We will ride the Euro to victory. Possible top 10 storm on the way! I am fired up! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 CTP's WSW text now says 16-20". This reminds me of last year when they kept updating mais adding another 4-6" until they eventually got to 26-34". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Just now, Cashtown_Coop said: That's a good link. Thanks anytime bud. Good luck. Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 closest 850 warm intrusion on 18z GFS. Like all others crashes after. I'll take it. Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rickg2 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 from the bgm afd: One final note on this storm. The CIPS analog system produces the Valentines day 2007 storm as the number one analog, and the 1993 superstorm as number 2. Both of these storms produced widespread 1 to 2 foot accumulations across our area with localized areas of 30+ inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 CTP's WSW text now says 16-20". This reminds me of last year when they kept updating mais adding another 4-6" until they eventually got to 26-34". The HiRes NAM and its parallel are quite insistent with that deform band over us. The 20Z HRRR has 11-13" of snow by 10 amSent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 8 minutes ago, canderson said: CTP's WSW text now says 16-20". This reminds me of last year when they kept updating mais adding another 4-6" until they eventually got to 26-34". I agree, they have been bumping it up all day. Their latest "most likely" map for Harrisburg is 18 inches & "potential for this much" map now says 27 inches!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Snow moving up quickly.In and around BWISent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 15 minutes ago, Superstorm said: Snow moving up quickly. In and around BWI Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk There is a very pronounced, very dark wall of clouds that is moving in rapidly overhead here now. My temp dropped from a high of 40 down to 36, now at 37 under the edge of the cloud deck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rickg2 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 STEVE iRWIN'S VOICE: this is the current state of the snow plows in pennDot's control. you can see by the track that some of migrated from the west to the east to be apart of the once in a decade snow event. They will migrate home after they have finished their tasks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted March 13, 2017 Author Share Posted March 13, 2017 2 minutes ago, Rickg2 said: STEVE iRWIN'S VOICE: this is the current state of the snow plows in pennDot's control. you can see by the track that some of migrated from the west to the east to be apart of the once in a decade snow event. They will migrate home after they have finished their tasks. It's becoming more of an annual migration haha. I can't believe the Sus Valley is staring down potentially another top ten event right after last year. Speaking of migrations haha, we should probably move to an obs thread soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 2 hours ago, MAG5035 said: I wonder if NortheastPAWx is able to come home for this storm. It looks like at long last that the Scranton/WB area is going to be part of ground zero for this. Nope, I'm stuck. Even if I wanted to I doubt I could...only getting the one day off (benefits of being a NYC Public Schools teacher!). Fortunately, my part of NYC might be in a great position to get high double-digits if we avoid the mix like models are hinting - might be confined to Brooklyn, Queens, and Lower Manhattan as far as we are concerned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 With that said, I'm going all-in and saying AVP will break its one-storm record, which I believe is from the 1993 Storm of the Century at 21.4" - a few tenths above the 1996 blizzard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Standing in our garage / driveway having pre storm drinks, the sky is black like Armageddon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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