AllWeather Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 12z GFS says "what mix line?" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AllWeather Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 2 minutes ago, Jns2183 said: Good luck with forecasting that snow/sleet line along with the mesoscale banding and associated subsidence between bands! Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro Thanks LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 1 minute ago, AllWeather said: 12z GFS says "what mix line?" Yeah, if the Euro holds, I think we dodge bullets....little icy ones, although I wouldnt be surprises at times of max precip to hear pingers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 looks rather similar to NAM suite. I'm starting to feel it gang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rickg2 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 our point-n-click is now showing just about 20 inches. this is getting interesting... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 3 minutes ago, Rickg2 said: our point-n-click is now showing just about 20 inches. this is getting interesting... CTP is going huge for you guys and the 78 corridor (and areas in between). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 5 inches in gfs...bring it on!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted March 13, 2017 Author Share Posted March 13, 2017 47 minutes ago, Atomixwx said: I have a feeling that somebody in this forum sees record snowfall, and somebody in this forum gets really, really screwed. I think we all verify warning snow in our subforum region but it does seem the consensus is starting to favor the entire Sus Valley up into NE PA and beyond for widespread 12+ totals and shifts the focus away from the central counties a bit (JST/AOO/UNV region). The new NAM puts it's intense QPF gradient too close for my comfort back this way. I do think ratios will be better than 10:1 in bands with heavier rates. Not too concerned about any notable mixing issues in our far southern tier... I'm more worried about true central busting low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 I've also thought this about mixing - I do NOT want to hear those dreaded pingers...hate the sound and the increased visibility is demoralizing. One good thing about sleet - 12" of snow with a couple of hours of sleet in the "mix" (pun intended) will enhance my snowpack's ability to withstand the March sun better than 18" of pure snow. So...there's that... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jmister Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 I'm starting to think that west of I-99 (State College) will struggle to get into the double digits for snowfall at this point with these slight eastward ticks. Hopefully this won't bust low here but I think there's a potential for that if it continues. This has and will be a LSV into NE PA special so a (presumptive) congrats to you guys! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 7 minutes ago, Wmsptwx said: 5 inches in gfs...bring it on!! 4k and 3k have you at 12 adn 9" so I'd think you have a good crack at 8", and wouldne be surprised based on where you are if your knockin on 12" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Harrisburg just announced snow emergency. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Guys, go read Mt. Holly's updated AFD. I know it's for just east of most of us...but I got goosebumps reading it. Edit: It's actually in their WSW headline. My apologies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 1 minute ago, canderson said: Harrisburg just announced snow emergency. What took them so long? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Just now, canderson said: Harrisburg just announced snow emergency. Is it on Pennlive? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 3 minutes ago, CarlislePaWx said: What took them so long? They NEVER issue them, I'm shocked they have this early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 CMC at 18 is basically identical to 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 1 minute ago, sauss06 said: Is it on Pennlive? Yes sir: http://www.pennlive.com/news/2017/03/snow_emergencies_starting_to_b.html#incart_m-rpt-2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Guys, go read Mt. Holly's updated AFD. I know it's for just east of most of us...but I got goosebumps reading it. Edit: It's actually in their WSW headline. My apologies. Nice read!Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 CMC is onbard w/ other 12z guidance. Track basically unchanged and very subtle differences. Enjoy everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Thinking Clearfield And a few other countries drop to high end advisories soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 1 minute ago, canderson said: Yes sir: http://www.pennlive.com/news/2017/03/snow_emergencies_starting_to_b.html#incart_m-rpt-2 i did see it on ABC27, doesn't say much. I always wonder about the verbiage in those States of Emergency. Most times it doesn't include a travel ban. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Just now, Wmsptwx said: Thinking Clearfield And a few other countries drop to high end advisories soon. Yeah doesnt look good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 20 minutes ago, Wmsptwx said: 5 inches in gfs...bring it on!! Sure a far cry from double digits. Mag You and 2001 you are getting close to missing out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 1 minute ago, pawatch said: Sure a far cry from double digits. Mag You and 2001 you are getting close to missing out. Thats pretty common with the big ones here...Too far west for the fun stuff (10"+) But who know what surprises it may hold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skiier04 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 4 minutes ago, pawatch said: Sure a far cry from double digits. Mag You and 2001 you are getting close to missing out. What else is new lol. Feel silly for getting a little overly excited about this one, have learned to usually keep my expectations low. Oh well, 6" in Mid-March would still be fun if we can get there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 4 to 8 is safe bet for unv to IPT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 6 minutes ago, Wmsptwx said: 4 to 8 is safe bet for unv to IPT. Yeah. It I think you have upside due to lift being close by. Hope so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted March 13, 2017 Author Share Posted March 13, 2017 14 minutes ago, 2001kx said: Thats pretty common with the big ones here...Too far west for the fun stuff (10"+) But who know what surprises it may hold. Well, we'll see what the rest of 12z guidance does. After that I'll be paying more attention to the HRRR/RAP and radar trends. We traded the classic miller B we had in guidance a few days ago for more of a pure coastal storm, which fortunately ended up a lot closer to the coast in guidance. The result increases top end accum potential but also tightens up the east to west snow gradient in PA. Instead of a miller B Ohio Valley low transfer solution where a large precip shield would be moving W-E across all of PA including the Pit region, the precip shield and majority of QPF will be from the coastal storm.. which will be attacking from the South/Southeast. And then you play the painstaking game of how far back into PA does it go? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 5 minutes ago, MAG5035 said: Well, we'll see what the rest of 12z guidance does. After that I'll be paying more attention to the HRRR/RAP and radar trends. We traded the classic miller B we had in guidance a few days ago for more of a pure coastal storm, which fortunately ended up a lot closer to the coast in guidance. The result increases top end accum potential but also tightens up the east to west snow gradient in PA. Instead of a miller B Ohio Valley low transfer solution where a large precip shield would be moving W-E across all of PA including the Pit region, the precip shield and majority of QPF will be from the coastal storm.. which will be attacking from the South/Southeast. And then you play the painstaking game of how far back into PA does it go? Bands always set up from further west than modeled. We see it every time. I wouldn't worry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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