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Central PA - March 2017


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2 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

No snow hole for you.  we both went down (you had multiple 20" amounts on 6zs and cleaned up on them.  at this time follow globals for trends, and starting tonight we can start to look to transition to mezzo's for higher res which will better show banding and who's gonna get into what.  

Your sitting pretty up there.  Cant follow every snow map off a cliff.  At this juncture, we just gotta go w/ the flow. (pun intended :)

Nut

Agree. Good post

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4 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

No snow hole for you.  we both went down (you had multiple 20" amounts on 6zs and cleaned up on them.  at this time follow globals for trends, and starting tonight we can start to look to transition to mezzo's for higher res which will better show banding and who's gonna get into what.  

Your sitting pretty up there.  Cant follow every snow map off a cliff.  At this juncture, we just gotta go w/ the flow. (pun intended :)

Nut

I know. It's hard not to sneak closer to the cliff when you've seen it over and over. The amount of storms that have rung the doorbell only to run away when answered has been many...

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Just now, Voyager said:

I know. It's hard not to sneak closer to the cliff when you've seen it over and over. The amount of storms that have rung the doorbell only to run away when answered has been many...

with all due respect.....I get it.  But really....your not the only one in here that fails.  I'll pull up some info sometime to prove my point.

I realize some prefer to see how we can fail...before we succeed, but if you are paying any attention to CPC/NCEP, and all of the other great info we share on this site, you'd do a little logical deduction and come to similar conclusions.

If you dont want to do that, then i'm not sure what else to tell you.  You've been here enough and many times weve seen you turn I'm screwed....into ok sorry...i'm good.

a potentially fantastic storm is coming.  Just enjoy the ride no matter what your backyard shows (and I think you wont see much of it for a while if I have half of a clue.

Nut

 

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To be honest, I'm not so sure I was at the cliff's edge like some who cancel storms every time a models cuts totals. Ji used to be good at it, Eskimo does it a lot, and even PSU Hoffman, who is very good, shows a bit of a negative tendency at times. I was just pointing out what the GFS was showing, which it has a couple times already, that the northern tier of PA doesn't do so well.

As for being here long enough to know better? Perhaps. But I've also been here long enough to read all the "puking snow" posts from the southern and eastern guys and gals while I watched "pixie dust" fall all day...

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just easin da pain.....

deduce according to you likes/dislikes/wants/needs/wishes....whatev.

This storm has made my year (from a tracking perspective).  Put a ton of time into watching it evolve, and as long as it delivers something reasonable in relation to all of the data were ingesting....I'll be happy regardless.  This is why I'm here.

Yes, I'm "guilty" of posting fun colorful maps, but in fairness i wouldnt post if my limited knowledge thought it an outlier.  A growing concensus is showing a central/eastern pa smackdown of various proportions.  While it can fall apart at the last minute, weve been steadily watching this one and the flight path is now clear for landing...and the landing beacons are getting closer together.

Nut

gem_asnow_neus_11.png

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4 minutes ago, canderson said:

I'm terrible at the Ukie maps bit it looks like a massive bomb for central P

A as it hugs the coast and is a bit slower.

Saw the one map in the Mid-Atl thread, had a 989mb low sitting atop the Delmarva Peninsula. That track can only mean good things for our region snow-wise. Also glad to see the GEM/RGEM coming around in the last couple runs from where they had been. We're starting to reach a consensus.

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Just now, MAG5035 said:

Saw the one map in the Mid-Atl thread, had a 989mb low sitting atop the Delmarva Peninsula. That track can only mean good things for our region snow-wise. Also glad to see the GEM/RGEM coming around in the last couple runs from where they had been. We're starting to reach a consensus.

it is da BOMB. If only i could find snow maps as I only see precip panels.  it is a fantastic evolution verbatim, but I may be tainted down here.  How it is for us in the LSV with the big ones.  I'll roll w/ it.

 

[Animation]

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warmest 850 panel on UKIE.  they crash towards Bermuda shortly after.  I'll take some taint for the team if I could place my order for this one.

its just friggin beautiful.  Ok...I really gotta get my chores done.  

walk away from the computer     walk away from the computer     walk away from the computer      walk away from the computer.  Be back later

Nut

[Animation]

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1 minute ago, pasnownut said:

warmest 850 panel on UKIE.  they crash towards Bermuda shortly after.  I'll take some taint for the team if I could place my order for this one.

its just friggin beautiful.  Ok...I really gotta get my chores done.  

walk away from the computer     walk away from the computer     walk away from the computer      walk away from the computer.  Be back later

Nut

 

You might want to reload your meteocentre page, those last two Ukie maps you posted are from 0z last night. 12z is better haha, and it still keeps everyone in here under 0ºC at 850.

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17 minutes ago, Voyager said:

I think I'm going to take a step back and read and not post. Clearly my judgement is a bit jaded from storms past. Perhaps it's best for me to observe and just let it play out.

You sit well here. Maybe you don't see 16" and instead see 8" -in march it's about the same imo. Any snow >6" is a tremendous success esp given this clusterf of a winter.

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The deformation band from the NAM and RGEM hanging over the I-81 corridor is really quite amazing, as some others have mentioned.  If that comes to fruition then the totals from NWS's "Max Potential" may be realized...ie 12 - 20".

Nearly all of us are poised to cash in on this one it would seem. 

The interesting thing about being in a CCB is that I was in one with the Jan 2016 storm last year and that's what propelled me up to 35".

One other thing is this storm is coming on the 24th anniversary of the superstorm of 1993.  I think we kept the snow from that storm on the ground for over 2 weeks afterwards because of how cold it became following the storm.  Many single-digit lows in mid-late March, which is getting into the pretty incredible category.

So, from the warmest February on record at MDT to what's coming.  Someone in the DC forum posted that the GFS keeps DC below freezing continuously for the 7 days following the storm and doesn't have a high temperature over 40 degrees there until March 25th!  WOW!

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13 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

 

What the f is that?? That's almost worthy of CTP's Alberta Clipper...clip art map from a few years ago. 

Wsptwx would be in the middle of the Bermuda triangle of 4-8" haha. 

Well Mag it was a good laugh. That's definitely a unique map.

Any idea how the Euro looks?

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