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Central PA - March 2017


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14 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

 


I feel you on this. I haven't made any calls or updates to people because of that. I'm giving it till after 12z runs today to add my 2 cents to people on FB and what not. That being said, I mentioned yesterday that I thought the southern tier east of 81 is looking decent for a good event. Well, that certainly stands and I'll go as far to say anyone from Gettysburg on east in the southern tier is almost primed for a minimum of 8". We go through with every storm (Last years Blizzard no exception) that something is always allowing for pause when making a final forecast. The one thing I will say is our technology has gotten better and I like to think when every model is depicting something very similar, it probably has caught on to the general idea of how it most likely will unfold. Can changes occur prior to game time? Sure. But I don't see many major changes in the horizon. I'm sure there will be greater data sampling for some of today's runs like they did last night runs. That to me is significant. The one area in question as far as potential is the area west of 81. The expansion of the QPF field to the west will be contingent on the interaction with that low out in OH Valley. That might not be completely resolved until tomorrow morning. That's at least my take. I actually haven't talked to Eric yet, but he should be coming out with his call today I would believe. If he's pulling triggers for 8+ over part of the state, that's when you got to think it will happen. Good luck making a call! I look forward to hearing for you :)


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The 00z Euro had significant differences with respect to yesterday's 12z run in how close to the region the easterly 700 mb flow component gets. That difference seems to be a consequence of how much interaction there is between the primary low and the shortwave moving through the southeast. I would want to see how that feature plays out in future guidance to get a better sense of the potential for more intense banding over the northern and western parts of the subforum. Even the region north of I78 had substantially less QPF on the 00z GFS and yesterday's 12z Euro compared with last night's 00z Euro.

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Just now, Superstorm said:


I like the 12Z NAM evolution. Think structurally better than 6Z.


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I agree that evolution looks great, but surface panels to not seem to match precip.

loop through 4k.  much better IMO.  I just didnt see the deform on the 12k, but yet totals reflect it.

Nut

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Just now, daxx said:

I see nothing wrong with the NAM. It's doing what it normally does. Try not to pick out a certain area with precipitation totals. Look at whole picture.  A lot of PA is in for good storm. 

Im not picking a point, I only look at 500mslp panel as well as snow/precip panels.  May just be noise, but didnt match to me.

not worried, just a little surprised.

Nut

 

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27 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

Im not picking a point, I only look at 500mslp panel as well as snow/precip panels.  May just be noise, but didnt match to me.

not worried, just a little surprised.

Nut

 

I'm wondering if it was less precip, or less snow? One of Horst's concerns this morning is that not all of the storm is snow down our way. 

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Just now, Voyager said:

So at this point in time, which model has a better chance of verifying? The super pumped NAM or the more conservative GFS?

GFS handles northern stream systems pretty well from what I've read.  NAM usually a little too amped (correction started to show on todays 12z's).

Storm is taking a really nice path and ULL seems to get a little more involved and trough is slightly sharper.  I think 18z will start to give a better idea of accums, as we've still been bouncing around a bit.  Not that my opinion matters, but I think an uptick is still likely if we can slow it down a bit, as NW deformation bands will really help to add up in true central Pa locals.

Ok, gotta go do some chores.  Back for the Euro.

Nut

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10 minutes ago, Superstorm said:

Another good run with GFS
 

 

6 minutes ago, daxx said:

Yea...This is starting to come together nicely. 

 

What's looking good for you guys down there is still somewhat questionable up this way. Per the GFS, north of I-80 is pretty weak, and the Schuylkill County snow hole is showing up, cutting my total down to, perhaps, less than 6 inches.

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Just now, Voyager said:

What's looking good for you guys down there is still somewhat questionable up this way. Per the GFS, north of I-80 is pretty weak, and the Schuylkill County snow hole is showing up, cutting my total down to, perhaps, less than 6 inches.

No snow hole for you.  we both went down (you had multiple 20" amounts on 6zs and cleaned up on them.  at this time follow globals for trends, and starting tonight we can start to look to transition to mezzo's for higher res which will better show banding and who's gonna get into what.  

Your sitting pretty up there.  Cant follow every snow map off a cliff.  At this juncture, we just gotta go w/ the flow. (pun intended :)

Nut

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1 minute ago, Voyager said:

 

What's looking good for you guys down there is still somewhat questionable up this way. Per the GFS, north of I-80 is pretty weak, and the Schuylkill County snow hole is showing up, cutting my total down to, perhaps, less than 6 inches.

I might be wrong, but I think you will do very well.  I would not get upset over GFS amounts. 

 

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