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Central PA - March 2017


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I think the takeaway over the last 24 hours is that the eastern 2/3 of the state is starting to look like a favorable region for 8-14" of snow.

models continue to vacillate but we consistently have been in favorable area w/ little mixing.  I think as we get into tomorrow, we may see uptick as less intrusion from ULL (as seems to be the trend this morning) will let the priimary come up the coast and gain strength.  At 12z it has gone from 994 to 991mb east of DE.  a couple more runs/ticks in this evolution could make this a good one.  Track is great and ULL stays back over western pa and should help, but not hinder as currently depicted.

If the Euro holds serve, I think we can start thinking about narrowing goalposts tonight.  I think the whole subforum will by and large be winners at varying depths, but my confidence is growing...as are the bags under my eyes.

Nut

 

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1 minute ago, pasnownut said:

I think the takeaway over the last 24 hours is that the eastern 2/3 of the state is starting to look like a favorable region for 8-14" of snow.

models continue to vacillate but we consistently have been in favorable area w/ little mixing.  I think as we get into tomorrow, we may see uptick as less intrusion from ULL (as seems to be the trend this morning) will let the priimary come up the coast and gain strength.  At 12z it has gone from 994 to 991mb east of DE.  a couple more runs/ticks in this evolution could make this a good one.  Track is great and ULL stays back over western pa and should help, but not hinder as currently depicted.

If the Euro holds serve, I think we can start thinking about narrowing goalposts tonight.  I think the whole subforum will by and large be winners at varying depths, but my confidence is growing...as are the bags under my eyes.

Nut

 

I agree Nut. Yesterday at work (with all of those miserable people) I was telling folks that right now, I'd go with 6"-12" with the potential for a bit more. Sometimes even I can be guilty of looking at maps with pretty colors days in advance and start thinking that's what is going to happen...and when the inevitable model shifting starts happening people get themselves all worked up. 

This is looking like a significant to a major snowfall. Could it be more than that? Yes. Should we expect it? I'm not. But I'm sure as heck hoping. 

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3 minutes ago, maytownpawx said:

I agree Nut. Yesterday at work (with all of those miserable people) I was telling folks that right now, I'd go with 6"-12" with the potential for a bit more. Sometimes even I can be guilty of looking at maps with pretty colors days in advance and start thinking that's what is going to happen...and when the inevitable model shifting starts happening people get themselves all worked up. 

This is looking like a significant to a major snowfall. Could it be more than that? Yes. Should we expect it? I'm not. But I'm sure as heck hoping. 

I'm w/ ya.  To my eyes, there still is upside potential as when they hold a storm like this, they often juice up as we get inside 48.  I think its possible.  

On the other hand, anymore interaction, or less dig w/ primary, and lower side of goalposts becomes likely.  Regardless, a good chance at a really nice event looms closer.

Would be fun to see some of the bigger totals start popping back up tonight or tomorrow morning.  Tracking a legit threat is just what the doc ordered.

Nut

 

 

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I'm w/ ya.  To my eyes, there still is upside potential as when they hold a storm like this, they often juice up as we get inside 48.  I think its possible.  

On the other hand, anymore interaction, or less dig w/ primary, and lower side of goalposts becomes likely.  Regardless, a good chance at a really nice event looms closer.

Would be fun to see some of the bigger totals start popping back up tonight or tomorrow morning.  Tracking a legit threat is just what the doc ordered.

Nut

 

 



IF this comes to fruition, we need to name this storm after Nut. He has been most enthusiastic.

Also, the HPC wording on this storm is EPIC!


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10 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

I'm w/ ya.  To my eyes, there still is upside potential as when they hold a storm like this, they often juice up as we get inside 48.  I think its possible.  

On the other hand, anymore interaction, or less dig w/ primary, and lower side of goalposts becomes likely.  Regardless, a good chance at a really nice event looms closer.

Would be fun to see some of the bigger totals start popping back up tonight or tomorrow morning.  Tracking a legit threat is just what the doc ordered.

Nut

 

 

The 12z GFS Kuchera ratio snow totals for this event range from 10-18 inches across most of CTP. It brought 13 inches of snow to Harrisburg & 18 to Lancaster.

 

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14 minutes ago, Superstorm said:

 


IF this comes to fruition, we need to name this storm after Nut. He has been most enthusiastic.

Also, the HPC wording on this storm is EPIC!


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

Thx buddy.  I appreciate the kind words.  

As much as I'd be honored I wouldnt give a flyin rats @ss what we name this pig.

Lets just keep up the mojo and land this one...

Would be good for many souls.

Having fun in here no matter the outcome (cause I think there will be some notable outcome :))

 

Nut

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24 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

I'm w/ ya.  To my eyes, there still is upside potential as when they hold a storm like this, they often juice up as we get inside 48.  I think its possible.  

On the other hand, anymore interaction, or less dig w/ primary, and lower side of goalposts becomes likely.  Regardless, a good chance at a really nice event looms closer.

Would be fun to see some of the bigger totals start popping back up tonight or tomorrow morning.  Tracking a legit threat is just what the doc ordered.

Nut

 

 

I dont know...the totals look pretty big to me?

3-11-2017 12-08-08 PM.jpg

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5 minutes ago, 2001kx said:

So whats the consensus? Kuchera or 10:1  = Whats more realistic?

I "think" 10;1 is just a standard ratio, whereas Kuchera takes into consideration thermal profiles, growth rates, and other parameters that a standard 10:1 doesn't. Hopefully one of the mets comes on and explains it in better detail.

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2 minutes ago, 2001kx said:

So whats the consensus? Kuchera or 10:1  = Whats more realistic?

From what I know

Kuchera factors in all precip types into snow totals 

10:1 algorithm calculates all frozen as snow.

If that's incorrect, ona you smart guys can correct me.....

Nut

 

 

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3 minutes ago, 2001kx said:

Ahhhh i see it now..

If Euro holds serve.....y'all may need to come down here and restrain me.......

Just sayin'

This one is a big run as the little bit of divergence this morning has some thinkin bout ledges in the MA forum.  Euro could ease a lot of souls.

So far GFS went from 994 to 991 of DE coast

UKI is at 988 at same location

track is rather optimal for us.  T- 30 till we know.....

Nut

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4 minutes ago, 2001kx said:

So whats the consensus? Kuchera or 10:1  = Whats more realistic?

I've seen a lot of references to the Kuchera snow ratio, but there's nothing published about so I have no idea if it is an improvement over 10:1 or not.

Forecasting snow ratio is difficult because you have to account for snow growth, aggregation, riming, and melting throughout the atmosphere as ice particles fall to the ground. Probably the easiest way to estimate snow-liquid ratio is to start with climo, adjust upward if there is a favorable region for dendritic growth, adjust downward if temperatures are colder than -20 degrees C or warmer than -12 degrees C throughout the profile, and adjust downward if there is any part of the profile close to freezing. Here is a map of snow-liquid ratio climatology for the US:

http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/SLR/slrmap.htm

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5 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

If Euro holds serve.....y'all may need to come down here and restrain me.......

Just sayin'

This one is a big run as the little bit of divergence this morning has some thinkin bout ledges in the MA forum.  Euro could ease a lot of souls.

So far GFS went from 994 to 991 of DE coast

UKI is at 988 at same location

track is rather optimal for us.  T- 30 till we know.....

Nut

As long as its west and not east im ok :)

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