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March 10-15 Multi Wave Setup


Hoosier

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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL
201 AM CDT Tue Mar 14 2017

.SHORT TERM...
200 AM CDT

Through tonight...

We have evolved from lake effect showers and several multi band
structures with our low level flow to more a several single band
structure (the first one emanating from Lake Huron, the second
from northern Lake Michigan) now that the low level flow has
shifted more full fetch parallel and you can see the convergence
axis well in the near lakeshore observations. This first main band
has had 35-40 dBz echoes which is extremely high for snow and
indicated of the ongoing heavy snow.

Thermodynamically this is prime time for lake effect to produce
2" per hr snowfall rates with very steep low level lapse rates,
and high inversion heights, with this inversion height even high
enough with the low level CAPE to produce lightning (reported on
NLDN near Bloomingdale not around 1230 am). UGN (Waukegan) has
been reporting 1/2SM tempo 1/4SM in snow, with wind gusts to 40-45
mph possibly occurring at times in the band.  Earlier snow
showers outside of the main band currently on KLOT radar have
weakened somewhat, and convective allowing models this fairly
intense band to continue shifting into southern Cook County and
shortly thereafter into Lake County Indiana, following the better
convergence axis, though what is amazing is this band is extending
southwest through almost the entire CWA, with Morris in Grundy
county even reporting 3/4SM vsby in the snow. The band will
likely become a bit more progressive as it does so thus the rates
may still be intense but not last quite as long.

The cold upper level low to our north will only slowly shift
southeast into lower Michigan today, which will keep the cold
airmass in place and support a favorable atmospheric setup for
continued lake effect snow. We do lose the strong convergence
signal on the Illinois side where snow would likely become more
loosely organized, but the main band across the lake appears to
refocus again across Cook County and Lake County Indiana later
this morning. While the moisture layer is slightly shallower, the
lake effect parameters are still rather impressive.

Then this evening we will start to feel the drying and subsident
influence of high pressure to our northwest across Illinois, but
then as low level winds shift more due northerly and somewhat
convergent over the center of the lake, the concern for moderate
to heavy lake effect snow will shift into Porter County, Indiana
and neighboring LaPorte. There is a several hour period, per
forecast soundings, of similar lake effect parameters with
regards to the steep lapse rates, high (though slightly lower than
currently) inversion heights and some lake convergence to focus
into a single band. The prime window is a 3z-9z or a late evening
to early morning period. We will likely have a Lake effect
advisory or warning going for Porter for something on the order of
4-8" or so. Will update this discussion after this decision and
any initial headline changes.

KMD
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57 minutes ago, snowstormcanuck said:

LOL an inch and change. Maybe 1.5" out there. Underwhelming to say the least.

Looks like I picked the wrong storm to take a semi-interest in. Oh well. Always next year.

The bottom really fell through on this one. Dad reporting 4" in Oakville.

About 2.5" here in Guelph.  

Environment Canada saying they've received reports of 8-12" in Hamilton so I guess LES will save the forecast in the end for some areas. 

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2 hours ago, Chicago Storm said:

ORD with an overall total of 7.1" as of now, 4.6" worth of LES.

LES finally settled in for a while, but ORD missed out when the plume was at its peak and stalled NW of there earlier in the night.

Some LES amounts in the 8-9" range north in Lake county.

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About 8.5" of lake effect, still coming down but pretty showery in nature. Probably close to 11" OTG. Roads still snow covered around town, plenty of spinouts. Despite it being a fluffy lake snow, the bottom few inches was slushy due to the warm driveway melting it, making it a chore to remove.

Here's my cam, but can't see too much because the snow is piled so high in front of the window: http://ustre.am/16Txc

Probably the best LES event I've seen in northeast IL.

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5 minutes ago, btcs31 said:

I'm just down the road. Feels like this has been in the sweet spot this morning. Very few breaks over the last several hours.

After this band moves through, should be more showery/intermittent.  I'm curious about what happens tonight though as we may see better organization into a dominant band.  Should get Lake county for a while even if the better show ends up eastward into Porter/Laporte.

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Please tell me baum got in on that LES!

 

Storm total snowfall imby was 5.6" with DTW 5.3". Mine is the highest on the PNS but per facebook several 6 inch reports. It appears that 4-6" fell in eastern Washtenaw, extreme southern Oakland, extreme northern Monroe, and all of Wayne County. Most ot the rest of SE MI appeared to have 2-3". Kudos to the models who literally had a blob of higher qpf over Wayne County. They actually sniffed out the Erie seeding. Winter wonderland out there, looks great!!!

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Impressive but I believe this.  It was barfing snow

 
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1143 AM CDT TUE MAR 14 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1100 AM     SNOW             1 NNW MUNSTER           41.56N 87.51W
03/14/2017  M4.4 INCH        LAKE               IN   COCORAHS

SNOW FELL IN ONE HOUR. 9.5 INCHES OF SNOW ON GROUND.

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9 minutes ago, LansingWeather said:

Well Lansing managed like an inch. Maybe. This was a joke. The flakes were so small all day, probably like 1mm diameter.

 

Lets bring on thunderstorms now.

Yeah, we got like 2 inches over here. Yet another pathetic event with obviously no lake involvement for here. Yawn.

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I don't know wtf is going on with the DVN snow report.  They reported 5.8" yesterday morning, and then 6.9" yesterday afternoon.  Picked up 0.2" after midnight from the LE stuff, and yet their storm total is only 6.1"?  Somehow they lost an inch in there lol.

This was from yesterday 

2qx9wcn.jpg

 

MLI picked up 1.1" from the LE snow late last night/this morning.  Storm total ended up at 5.9".

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12 hours ago, snowstormcanuck said:

LOL an inch and change. Maybe 1.5" out there. Underwhelming to say the least.

Looks like I picked the wrong storm to take a semi-interest in. Oh well. Always next year.

I've measured 2" at m place. A disappointment, for sure, but not a total bust.

 

It looks like Montreal is in in the sweet spot.

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