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March 10-15 Multi Wave Setup


Hoosier

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8 hours ago, Thundersnow12 said:

Interesting forecast with both system snow and lake enhancement/LES snow for northeast IL Sunday night through Monday and into Tuesday.

Really need the ejecting wave to amplify as much as possible before getting into the Midwest and have the wave over the northeast exit stage right in a hurry to allow for that amplification. There are ways this can become a good event but we aren't there yet. 

Check out this forecast sounding over the lake on Tuesday morning.  This is not modified for lake temperatures so you can imagine what it would look like if you plugged in a temp of 40 (just throwing a number out there).

 

gfs_2017031012_096_42_25--87_25.thumb.png.819b905f8529d25229a50f39c378bac5.png

 

Sometimes you can get diurnal interference with the band at this time of year, but I've seen that more in pure LES events and maybe it wouldn't really apply in a case that is more lake enhanced vs lake effect, at least until the latter stages.

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The Sunday night/Monday system is still up in the air for my area.  The GFS, GEM, UK, and NAM all have good snow, but the euro wants to take the low much farther north and screw the southern half of Iowa for the umpteenth time this winter.  There must be locations in southern Iowa that haven't received 5 inches of snow all winter.

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12 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

The Sunday night/Monday system is still up in the air for my area.  The GFS, GEM, UK, and NAM all have good snow, but the euro wants to take the low much farther north and screw the southern half of Iowa for the umpteenth time this winter.  There must be locations in southern Iowa that haven't received 5 inches of snow all winter.

That was a sizable bump north on the EC.  Will have to look at the EPS members when they come out to see if it's a trend.  Op would put the QC right on the sharp cutoff, which would make it a fun forecast for the DVN office lol.  Judging by how the guidance has been it will be hard to trust anything until we get into the <48hr range IMO.  No matter what it's been fun to have something to track again.

EDIT:  Speaking of southern Iowa, I feel bad for those guys down there.  They were sitting pretty for tonight's wave until it crapped the bed at the last minute.

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2 minutes ago, TimChgo9 said:

I keep hearing 3-5" for this area.  After reading this thread,  not so sure.  But, then, I don't see winter leaving us without giving us a present.  This has been one heck of a snow drought. 

A bit early for amounts but 3-5" is not a terrible guess in general.  The wildcard is the lake potential, which by itself could easily add a few if not several inches in some areas imo. There's a pretty good signal for enhancement in WI/IL on the lower resolution global models, so the hi-res models may be bullish once in range.

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2 minutes ago, buckeye said:

LOL at the 18z nam

Only here in Columbus can you get warm tongued on the nw side of the low.   :facepalm:

god make it stop

You need the initial OV low to go farther south or die out quicker.  If it dies out quicker though, that could still end up screwing you.

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6 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

You need the initial OV low to go farther south or die out quicker.  If it dies out quicker though, that could still end up screwing you.

 

Yea I know...and technically we are on the se side of the initial low....it's just that it's an amazing illustration of fail.

Although, I'm going to extrapolate the nam beyond 84 and it appears lows phase over WV and we have January 1978 redux only displaced 100 miles east.:o

 

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34 minutes ago, Guest said:

How can you glean any knowledge from this discussion?

Sent from my SM-G925T using Tapatalk
 

You can't the discussion has gone down hill since yesterday. Not that this is even that impressive of an event. The quicker it passes, the better.

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39 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

LOT going 3-6" possible north of I-80, then additional amounts from LE.

Seems like a reasonable layout with the track of the low/mid level features... also, temps may become marginal during the day Monday, hurting ratios/amounts near/south of I-80. 

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7 minutes ago, buckeye said:

IMG_0881.thumb.PNG.e8b905a807d2eb20dbbf1ecc0cfcf921.PNG

4-9" across most of Ohio for a mean snowfall is pretty good.  Says there are some biggies in the mix.  

Just wish we had more model support than just the gfs.

 

Stop doing this to yourself Buck. You're getting pulled into the vortex. Don't do it!

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24 minutes ago, pondo1000 said:

Stop doing this to yourself Buck. You're getting pulled into the vortex. Don't do it!

 

yea I know, I'm fck'n schizo when it comes to this insane interest/hobby/sickness etc.   There always has to be one model to keep you hooked.  If this threat crashes and burns I hope it's at 00z.

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Just now, buckeye said:

 

yea I know, I'm fck'n schizo when it comes to this insane interest/hobby/sickness etc.   There always has to be one model to keep you hooked.  If this threat crashes and burns I hope it's at 00z.

I know. Me 2. I'll be looking at the stupid 00z! But ask yourself, has the GFS ever come through for you/me/us in this type if situation where it is the ONLY model giving us hope?

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