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March 10-15 Multi Wave Setup


Hoosier

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9 minutes ago, Angrysummons said:

Ensembles never really bought this wave developing despite back building and coming in further southwest. Just to much shear. The next system is where the potential has been for days now and probably the last call of a winter storm(nasty EP/NP spike coming the 2nd half of the month to little surprise eh?). Though there isn't much ensemble support either.

The 2nd system may not be the last. There's a moderate clipper type on Monday..

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Some interesting trends for the beginning of next week on the GFS ensembles over the last two days...more +PNA suggesting that shortwave may come in a little "hotter," and lower heights over the NE suggesting there may be a limit to how far north this can trend.  The weekend shortwave looks quite likely at this point to be sheared out and unimpressive, but if the next shortwave comes in faster or if the weekend shortwave slows at all a phase may be possible.  This is still really far out and the models have sucked in their handling of all three waves so far, so we'll see how long this interesting trend lasts.  Judging by the shortwave taking on a neutral tilt as it approaches the MS River, I'd have to think there's room for a negative tilt before the Apps which is what the eastern Lakes and Ohio Valley would need for a decent threat early next week. 

GEFS 132.png

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  • Hoosier changed the title to March 10-15 Multi Wave Setup
2 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Although not originally intended, going to extend the thread for the early week system given the close timing and the weekend one looking to have limited extent of impacts.

Good call first wave impacts will be minimal with the exception of STL. 2nd wave has much uncertainty to be sorted out but has potential.

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blech... I'm glad it's March.

that storm set up for next tuesday is one of those that usually sucks for Ohio, (other than eastern areas).    Wave out of the central plains starts to dig as it heads east and then the trough going neg over us usually means a moderate event for places to our west and then the storm weakens as it approaches OH and transfers to the coast.   IOW, we get jumped.

If the trough really starts to deepen early than we watch everything pinwheel under us instead.   It's usually a no win.   We either need a weaker system that acts more like a clipper or need it to go nuclear and phase early enough that the 500 closes off early and the transfer takes much longer allowing moisture to wrap back over us.   Unlikely.

Only good news is it's still 6 days out and 6 day storm set ups never verify.

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28 minutes ago, buckeye said:

blech... I'm glad it's March.

that storm set up for next tuesday is one of those that usually sucks for Ohio, (other than eastern areas).    Wave out of the central plains starts to dig as it heads east and then the trough going neg over us usually means a moderate event for places to our west and then the storm weakens as it approaches OH and transfers to the coast.   IOW, we get jumped.

If the trough really starts to deepen early than we watch everything pinwheel under us instead.   It's usually a no win.   We either need a weaker system that acts more like a clipper or need it to go nuclear and phase early enough that the 500 closes off early and the transfer takes much longer allowing moisture to wrap back over us.   Unlikely.

Only good news is it's still 6 days out and 6 day storm set ups never verify.

It has classic transfer written all over it...

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Just now, Jrad08 said:

It has classic transfer written all over it...

I saw one gfs ens member that gave the wet dream alternative.   The ridge out west pops on steroids, the trough digs like crazy and goes neg tilt and you have the 93superstorm riding the apps instead of the coast.    

lol...if only

watch what happens with that western ridge....we need it to pop hard and west of Boise.   

 

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The models are terrible right now with strength and placement of everything so anything is on the table. At this point if say widespread light snow is a decent bet for the southern Lakes and OV Monday or Tuesday with a stronger L off the coast, but honestly the way the models have gone this could fizzle to nothing or turn into a nice storm. Someone in northern OH may score a decent burst of fgen snow tonight.

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24 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

The models are terrible right now with strength and placement of everything so anything is on the table. At this point if say widespread light snow is a decent bet for the southern Lakes and OV Monday or Tuesday with a stronger L off the coast, but honestly the way the models have gone this could fizzle to nothing or turn into a nice storm. Someone in northern OH may score a decent burst of fgen snow tonight.

I admire your optimism but its more than just low placement, the setup overall just sucks.   It's been like this since January.   Warm warm warm and then when it does get cold the trough sets up too far east crushing anything that comes our way.   

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9 minutes ago, buckeye said:

I admire your optimism but its more than just low placement, the setup overall just sucks.   It's been like this since January.   Warm warm warm and then when it does get cold the trough sets up too far east crushing anything that comes our way.   

It's not optimism...it's a fact...models are a joke lately. We did ok in Jan here with a few synoptic events in addition to LES. Feb was dull but there werent really threats on the table. Stay tuned. 

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Well the gfs is closer to what we would need.... a much quicker phase and neg tilt.  Still far from where it needs to be but will be interesting to see if a trend kicks in.   This may be the first time I've ever seen the models start to show stronger inside of 5 days....maybe that means it will be a continuing trend...wishful thinking.   GGEM is now a pretty strong MA coastal too.

The NAO being positive is a head scratcher for such a far east solution.   OTOH the PNA is strongly positive too.

 

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22 minutes ago, buckeye said:

Well the gfs is closer to what we would need.... a much quicker phase and neg tilt.  Still far from where it needs to be but will be interesting to see if a trend kicks in.   This may be the first time I've ever seen the models start to show stronger inside of 5 days....maybe that means it will be a continuing trend...wishful thinking.   GGEM is now a pretty strong MA coastal too.

The NAO being positive is a head scratcher for such a far east solution.   OTOH the PNA is strongly positive too.

 

GGEM solution gives us flurries here, not at all what I want with a week+ of suck extreme temps this time of year.

I'm leaning in the GFS camp but I don't think a viable solution will be found until the first wave is fully on shore and sampled. The models are really struggling sampling "our" wave right behind it...

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32 minutes ago, Baum said:

^

i want some of what your taking.

 

Lol. I basically said some light snow appears likely and the models suck. That is not far fetched.

 

Also...I know chicago has been in the snowless twilight zone, but it's true. The 2 synoptic snows we had here in January  (that were within 5 days) stayed course and 1 overperformed. I do not remember a single winter threat in the week or less range after our snow melted Feb 7 and the torch was incoming. This winter here was so top heavy it's falling over. Total snowfall is not bad....but it's because of December. The last month has been horrible. 

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Euro holds off on the full transfer to the coastal low. As a result, cuts the wave slightly further west than the GFS. I don't have access the precip maps for the Euro but would imagine it would be favorable for a prolonged event across portions of Ohio.

Anyone with Euro access is welcome to chime in...

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2 hours ago, Baum said:

Chicago's winter will end with a 8-10 inch plaster storm. Book it.:o

In all seriousness, the early week storm is probably the best chance for accumulating snow in Chicago in quite a while.  One thing this one has going for it is the lake enhancement component, so even if the synoptic part is weak, the lake should add something.  It will take time to clarify the details but as I mentioned yesterday, the setup for enhancement on the western shores looks pretty decent at this distance, with nearshore temps around 40 and some temps into the 40s farther out in the lake, which could result in delta T's well into the teens at least.

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