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Model Mayhem VI


Typhoon Tip

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3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Actually in 2015 the EPS had insane amounts like the GFS does today, there were 3 foot lollies showing up that we laughed at

Other then the clipper that looks to be off the table late week for NE, The next ones up still have some legs to trend north, Wouldn't think we would need to worry about suppression in March but we shall see.

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7 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

All time record low 850 temp for GYX on that prog I didn't check anywhere else but I am sure its up there old record is  ‐27.1 2007

Untitled.png

Something tells me that run doesn't verify, lol....look how anomalous that point is compared to the previous daily records. You have to go back to mid-January to find daily records that low.

 

Not doubting big cold though...the signal for cold has been there. But we'll probably moderate a few degrees as we get closer.

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Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Something tells me that run doesn't verify, lol....look how anomalous that point is compared to the previous daily records. You have to go back to mid-January to find daily records that low.

 

Not doubting big cold though...the signal for cold has been there. But we'll probably moderate a few degrees as we get closer.

Geezuz I hope so, the last one did hold though, no wonder we suffer from suppression depression

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Still not buying suppression on the clipper. The timing with respect to the ULL sagging south out of Quebec is such that the left exit region of the leading jet streak across northern Ohio collocated with the barolclinic zone around hr 96 should be the location of best surface pressure falls. Oddly, guidance seems to flip to the left exit region once the wave is east of the CONUS-south of Nova Scotia. The current model consensus of focusing on the right entrance region would result in complete suppression and a shredded, non-existent wave, manifesting in cold and dry sensible weather from the MA to NE. 

In simple terms, either the clipper develops and traverses SNE, out ahead of the ULL dropping in from Quebec or it does not happen at all. My bet is the former.

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It cracks me up that some just don't believe the Suppression idea.     I mean, we've seen March keep everything south just as lil as 3 years ago...where NJ and Central and SE PA on south of there, clean up in the snow department in March 2014.  While we had nothing but cold sunny days.   Its been in the back of my mind for a while now that things stay south and we get shut out-could easily happen.  

 

Be Careful what we wish for...here comes the -NAO and the suppression shows up like clock work.  Sure we are still way out...and things will change for certain.  IMO things should trend slowly north with these, but you can never rule out suppression in set ups like this, in fact it's foolish to do so.

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3 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

It cracks me up that some just don't believe the Suppression idea.     I mean, we've seen March keep everything south just as lil as 3 years ago...where NJ and Central and SE PA on south of there, clean up in the snow department in March 2014.  While we had nothing but cold sunny days.   Its been in the back of my mind for a while now that things stay south and we get shut out-could easily happen.  

 

Be Careful what we wish for...here comes the -NAO and the suppression shows up like clock work.  Sure we are still way out...and things will change for certain.  IMO things should trend slowly north with these, but you can never rule out suppression in set ups like this, in fact it's foolish to do so.

It's a big possibility

Combine the -NAO and the fast flow of the pattern and you will get suppression.

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4 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

It cracks me up that some just don't believe the Suppression idea.     I mean, we've seen March keep everything south just as lil as 3 years ago...where NJ and Central and SE PA on south of there, clean up in the snow department in March 2014.  While we had nothing but cold sunny days.   Its been in the back of my mind for a while now that things stay south and we get shut out-could easily happen.  

 

Be Careful what we wish for...here comes the -NAO and the suppression shows up like clock work.  Sure we are still way out...and things will change for certain.  IMO things should trend slowly north with these, but you can never rule out suppression in set ups like this, in fact it's foolish to do so.

That followed a winter though where those setups regularly happened with blocking and a -NAO.  There has been almost no verification to any medium range blocking this year which makes me suspect of it suddenly verifying now. 

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Just now, Snow88 said:

It's a big possibility

Combine the -NAO and the fast flow of the pattern and you will get suppression.

LOL...-NAO does not lead to suppression by itself.

The SE ridge is still there. It's not going south 

 

I would think most have been around long enough to know that look today is not a suppressed look and modeling should steadily correct north..probably starting Wednesday

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5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

LOL...-NAO does not lead to suppression by itself.

The SE ridge is still there. It's not going south 

 

I would think most have been around long enough to know that look today is not a suppressed look and modeling should steadily correct north..probably starting Wednesday

The Friday system should be suppressed.  I'm not sure about the next one.  The Friday one IMO may ultimately wash out and be virtually nothing for everyone in the NYC to DCA corridor 

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1 hour ago, dryslot said:

I remember that 7 day run up here a few weeks back,  Prior to that period, The Euro was spitting out 40"+ amounts about 7 days out and many laughed only to have it verify.................lol

 

2 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

Put up for posterity and laughing stock, although I do remember a 33 inch Euro map in 2015, oh wait that verified lol

Just found this back from '15

100.JPG

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5 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

The Friday system should be suppressed.  I'm not sure about the next one.  The Friday one IMO may ultimately wash out and be virtually nothing for everyone in the NYC to DCA corridor 

Yeah the clipper is a done deal . It's not going to give much to anyone on the east coast as it shears. We want that to happen so the Sunday storm has room . 

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16 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

LOL...-NAO does not lead to suppression by itself.

The SE ridge is still there. It's not going south 

 

I would think most have been around long enough to know that look today is not a suppressed look and modeling should steadily correct north..probably starting Wednesday

:weenie:

It very well could be suppression.  All it takes is a nice push of confluence and cold with the fast zonal flow we've had lately and you can get a couple waves going south for a 3-5 day period.  

Its not like we are talking about a month of suppression...time it right (or wrong depending on your location) and the thing goes straight east off the mid-Atlantic with dry cold airmass pressing south.  

Looks like a sweet virga storm on the northern edge as it is.

Long way to go but I think discounting suppression seems pretty weenie-ish given the current guidance.

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2 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

:weenie:

It very well could be suppression.  All it takes is a nice push of confluence and cold with the fast zonal flow we've had lately and you can get a couple waves going south for a 3-5 day period.  

Its not like we are talking about a month of suppression...time it right (or wrong depending on your location) and the thing goes straight east off the mid-Atlantic with dry cold airmass pressing south.  

Looks like a sweet virga storm on the northern edge as it is.

Long way to go but I think discounting suppression seems pretty weenie-ish given the current guidance.

Maybe discounting is a strong word.. but it's certainly a very very low probability since that seems to be the latest rage

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Euro ensembles really like the Mar 14 deal....they are really suppressed for this weekend, but can't throw in the towel on that one this early. I don't think the clipper is coming back. It might just get put through the meat grinder like the one last week did.

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