Model Mayhem VI

[EastonSN+]

1 hour ago, weathafella said:

You sir have really stepped up your game-great posts-keep then coming!

Agreed. Runnaway and DIT have been great.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Ala 0z euro?

Yes

[Baroclinic Zone]

Like Will said last night we don't need the PV to have a sizable storm,  The s/w itself and trough argue for a good size storm regardless.  If the PV gets involved than we are talking about a storm on another level.  The consistency of a modeled storm have been pretty remarkable though at this timeframe.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Not sure why my ukie posts show 24-48hr maps but initial sw goes off the coast se of Nova Scotia. Then a sw swings through the Ohio Valley. Hard to tell though whats goings on. 

[dryslot]

12 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Like Will said last night we don't need the PV to have a sizable storm,  The s/w itself and trough argue for a good size storm regardless.  If the PV gets involved than we are talking about a storm on another level.  The consistency of a modeled storm have been pretty remarkable though at this timeframe.

Yes it has been consistent, And really all you need to see at this lead, There is going to run to run shifts in the eventual track as models key on different aspects in the flow for now.

[Typhoon Tip]

9 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

I'm not sure which part. The point of the comment is that a graze vs a hit is well within the model error due to chaos at this point....a more concerning trend would be all the guidance putting the storm over Bermuda....but a graze vs something 100 miles west is effectively noise at this range.

I think what was meant is that bigger error intervals might be more telling than 100 or 200 mile type giga movements that differentiate the runs. 

'Sounds' to me like he's talking abut 'acceptable tolerances' before allowing it to really be telling - 

if that interpretation is correct, he/she is right.  if it's just my struggling to construct a cogent interpretation by formulating patterns amid the blather of psychosis... than perhaps not. 

heh  Anyway, not directed at you:  we spoke at length about the "model blackouts" yesterday...  no one should be surprised at anything.  .. We were discussing the phenomenon on the modern modeling technoglocial era, where bigger events tend to have longer residences in model cycles out in time, before and/or preventative they suffer disappearances and so forth.   ...aka, consistency in the extended, into the mid range, ...and on into the short range, then whiff out to sea at the last second just to ah ha-ha the weather god's fist right up the codependent emotionally drilled in snow obsessor's bum. 

J/k, but seriously ... we only asked the question yesterday whether this one would/could be just such an entity in the models... 

Honestly, ...I don't see this as a black out, ...tho the term has to be subjective/native to forum vernacular. To me, it means...reduced(ing) signal down to negligible, which this isn't.  The signal is still there. 

First, I want to comment on something ...  I stood back and observed about the "mood" in here over the last 24 hours.  The 00z GFS operational run from not last night, but, the night before, was the King Kong beast of a blizzard solution.  Every run since then, including the 18z yesterday ... though were impressive in their own rites were, for some component/aspect or the other, carrying slightly less panache.  

Not sure what/why it was about the 18z that ratcheted up the ebullience to even more fervor, when the depiction/statistics were incrementally less/or no different.  A trend characterization also continued in the 00z run. Case in point, it seems to escape folks' attention that the system has been speeding up in the every solution since the slow crawling yard stick storm from two nights ago. ...Now, the QPF fields are less...partially related to that increased storm translation time, but also weakening some in the stream/dynamics/phasing complexions...etc...etc..  

That's not saying the backed off version is correct ... it's brought up to preface for the following:  it seems that people assume the ebullience/mood are the baseline reference points and status?  I'd be careful is all - you're setting your self up for disappointment, particularly because affectation and truth often part company ...so relying on the former is a bad gamble.  

  

 

[Typhoon Tip]

There were some ridiculous monsters on the 00z GEFs individual members still... 

There's also some semblance of the additional/latter signal others have mentioned, too. 

Then, we're done...? Save for some random bowling season thing, I can see next week as like winter's last hurrah. We get a whack, or two, or a couple of side-swipes and some cold, and I think I'm willing to believe the cold retreat idea.  

This sort of happened near the end of 2014...when we had the big west Atl. bomb that edged east and only managed to clip the Cape... It was frigid unrelenting with no spring in sight prior to that storm, which as it turned out ...earmarked the end. The storm wrapped in a and gobbled up all the cold amid the gusty backside, and then trundling it's way up into the Maritimes.  The eastern U.S. days warmed within that week and for all intents and purposes we were done.

I see something similar taking place hear... if perhaps not next week, after the immediate signal thereafter.   .. It's just that the -WPO doesn't seem to be sending the signal down stream across the northern arch of the Pacific so... the GEFs notion of rising EPO by the end of D 7 could very well herald the end. The Euro's longer range is relaxing the deeper 850 cold complexion for what it's probably not worth - we'll see

[jbenedet]

I like really this one. EPS and GEFS look promising at this juncture--can't ask for much more 140 hr out. A significant storm along or east of the CONUS-- in all variations--has shown up on most guidance by now. To me, that's typically a  harbinger of a big one--even if it's temporarily lost on guidance only to come back inside 100 hr.

That said I'd have higher confidence if the teleconnections were more favorable but we're entering the climatological period of increasing wavelengths which greatly reduces their relevance--so plenty of caveats here... 

Right now I have to strongly favor  eastern sections based on orientation of longwave trough, fast flow, lack of blocking and this season's trend to blow up storms closer to Nova Scotia. This event is going to come down to excellent timing for a MECS, BUT at least the potential is clearly there for one.

[OceanStWx]

3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

There were some ridiculous monsters on the 00z GEFs individual members still... 

There's also some semblance of the additional/latter signal others have mentioned, too. 

Then, we're done...? Save for some random bowling season thing, I can see next week as like winter's last hurrah. We get a whack, or two, or a couple of side-swipes and some cold, and I think I'm willing to believe the cold retreat idea.  

This sort of happened near the end of 2014...when we had the big west Atl. bomb that edged east and only managed to clip the Cape... It was frigid unrelenting with no spring in sight prior to that storm, which as it turned out ...earmarked the end. The storm wrapped in a and gobbled up all the cold amid the gusty backside, and then trundling it's way up into the Maritimes.  The eastern U.S. days warmed within that week and for all intents and purposes we were done.

I see something similar taking place hear... if perhaps not next week, after the immediate signal thereafter.   .. It's just that the -WPO doesn't seem to be sending the signal down stream across the northern arch of the Pacific so... the GEFs notion of rising EPO by the end of D 7 could very well herald the end. The Euro's longer range is relaxing the deeper 850 cold complexion for what it's probably not worth - we'll see

The scary part is that the GEFS sensitivity doesn't really start showing a signal until about 3 days from now in the north Pacific.

[jbenedet]

4 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

The scary part is that the GEFS sensitivity doesn't really start showing a signal until about 3 days from now in the north Pacific.

Heh. Good point.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

4 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

I like really this one. EPS and GEFS look promising at this juncture--can't ask for much more 140 hr out. A significant storm along or east of the CONUS-- in all variations--has shown up on most guidance by now. To me, that's typically a  harbinger of a big one--even if it's temporarily lost on guidance only to come back inside 100 hr.

That said I'd have higher confidence if the teleconnections were more favorable but we're entering the climatological period of increasing wavelengths which greatly reduces their relevance--so plenty of caveats here... 

Right now I have to strongly favor  eastern sections based on orientation of longwave trough, fast flow, lack of blocking and this season's trend to blow up storms closer to Nova Scotia. This event is going to come down to excellent timing for a MECS, BUT at least the potential is clearly there for one.

I will disagree with tele part. The pna rise is real and while nao numbers may not be negative on the charts, we have decent ridging up north to press the oozing high. 

[Typhoon Tip]

1 minute ago, OceanStWx said:

The scary part is that the GEFS sensitivity doesn't really start showing a signal until about 3 days from now in the north Pacific.

well, yeah.. hence the 'we'll see'

caveat emptor: what you see is not necessarily what you get - haha. 

If the WPO stays buried like that... you almost wonder if the EPO has some negative burps left in it, that could extend the threat for additional cold load intervals into Canada and onward and so forth.. 

But, I know it rolls eyes...but, going forward, gee golly if it's not March 9 ... take two deep breaths and follow next week's thing to pass the time and suddenly the Ides of the month are behind us and we talking September 21 sun shimmering down and next thing we know... diabatic jolting of the hemisphere alters the circulation - that's really when the wave lengths shrink and the tele's become much less useful (tho not 0 useful).  I don't think we're there yet, but...  should this idea of +EPO transpire on the seasonal hockey stick sun time... meh...  winter has to die sometime. 

 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

2 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

Heh. Good point.

Yea, didnt think about that. My amatuer thoughts today are, if guidance cant figure out a little clipper inside 24hrs what makes some think next weeks complex nature will have ideal solutions 20 runs in a row? 

[jbenedet]

20 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

I will disagree with tele part. The pna rise is real and while nao numbers may not be negative on the charts, we have decent ridging up north to press the oozing high. 

PNA is not the problem. Check out the ridge out west right now, and Newfoundland gets a bomb, while we get the clipper. An antecedent cold air mass isn't either. The risk is in a lack of blocking to slow down the flow, allowing for a phase close to the eastern CONUS.

[jbenedet]

25 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Yea, didnt think about that. My amatuer thoughts today are, if guidance cant figure out a little clipper inside 24hrs what makes some think next weeks complex nature will have ideal solutions 20 runs in a row? 

I don't think you understand what OceanSt was saying. 

GEFS are showing some really amped solutions out 140 hr. That's anomalous in that the GEFS don't typically pick up on very deep solutions outside of 72 hrs. This anomaly could be indicating additional support for an intense system. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

44 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

I like really this one. EPS and GEFS look promising at this juncture--can't ask for much more 140 hr out. A significant storm along or east of the CONUS-- in all variations--has shown up on most guidance by now. To me, that's typically a  harbinger of a big one--even if it's temporarily lost on guidance only to come back inside 100 hr.

That said I'd have higher confidence if the teleconnections were more favorable but we're entering the climatological period of increasing wavelengths which greatly reduces their relevance--so plenty of caveats here... 

Right now I have to strongly favor  eastern sections based on orientation of longwave trough, fast flow, lack of blocking and this season's trend to blow up storms closer to Nova Scotia. This event is going to come down to excellent timing for a MECS, BUT at least the potential is clearly there for one.

I'm suprised you are leaning snowy.

[dryslot]

17 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

I don't think you understand what OceanSt was saying. 

GEFS are showing some really amped solutions out 140 hr. That's anomalous in that the GEFS don't typically pick up on very deep solutions outside of 72 hrs. This anomaly could be indicating additional support for an intense system. 

When some talk about flags, This would be a positive one.

[OceanStWx]

14 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

I don't think you understand what OceanSt was saying. 

GEFS are showing some really amped solutions out 140 hr. That's anomalous in that the GEFS don't typically pick up on very deep solutions outside of 72 hrs. This anomaly could be indicating additional support for an intense system. 

That's not really what I'm saying.

What I'm saying is that we're getting awfully confident over pieces of energy that really aren't modeled to start showing a stronger signal for another three days. There could be a lot of model shifts left.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

19 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

I don't think you understand what OceanSt was saying. 

GEFS are showing some really amped solutions out 140 hr. That's anomalous in that the GEFS don't typically pick up on very deep solutions outside of 72 hrs. This anomaly could be indicating additional support for an intense system. 

um, I did understand. Not sure you do lol. and My response was just a random thought, I should have put in a new paragraph.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

4 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

That's not really what I'm saying.

What I'm saying is that we're getting awfully confident over pieces of energy that really aren't modeled to start showing a stronger signal for another three days. There could be a lot of model shifts left.

Yea, "wait until the energy is on shore". 

[jbenedet]

8 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

That's not really what I'm saying.

There could be a lot of model shifts left.

I took it the same as dryslot. I mean at 140 hrs, there's definitely a lot of model shifts left--this almost goes without saying. No one is talking specifics yet, and for good reason....

[dryslot]

In the meantime, We waffle from run to run until the energy out in the pacific comes onshore.

[OceanStWx]

Just now, jbenedet said:

I took it the same as dryslot. I mean at 140 hrs, there's definitely a lot of model shifts left--this almost goes without saying. No one is talking specifics yet, and for good reason....

My point was in two days, the 500 mb flow could look entirely different. Yesterday there were pieces phasing from the north Pacific, Arctic, and NW Atlantic retrograding west. That's pretty complicated. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

30 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

PNA is not the problem. Check out the ridge out west right now, and Newfoundland gets a bomb, while we get the clipper. An antecedent cold air mass isn't either. The risk is in a lack of blocking to slow down the flow, allowing for a phase close to the eastern CONUS.

So, this has turned into another phantom blocking episode? I had a long time nyc met stream a vid last night talking about the blocking out ahead of this.  youre saying hes wrong?

[WinterWolf]

6 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

That's not really what I'm saying.

What I'm saying is that we're getting awfully confident over pieces of energy that really aren't modeled to start showing a stronger signal for another three days. There could be a lot of model shifts left.

I've been thinking that for a long time...these pieces are far far from being modeled correctly...and as they approach and come into modeling view, the outlook will change for sure...and probably not resemble the bomb that we have all been enjoying seeing the last few days.   Changes abound.

[dryslot]

My guess is the 12z GFS won't disappoint this run unless that sunday wave screws with it off Hatteras

[CoastalWx]

This is may a big boy on the 12z.

[SouthCoastMA]

The GFS looks like it's gearing up for another bomb, based on 114hrs. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Anyway, h5 looks beastly here. lol.

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

This is may a big boy on the 12z.

Yep, you beat me to it...this looks ready to go nuclear at 108 hours.