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Typhoon Tip

Model Mayhem VI

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2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

So you say this, and then disagree with me that it's too early to expect consistency?

 

:huh:

I disagree with the grazer comment. 

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11 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

I think storm 2 down in the carolinas was ever so slightly more potent this run which impacted this potential event being more east 

This is one of the main red flags at this lead time.  That's why I'll feel much more confident when models maintain big ticket consistency come sat/sun. 

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3 minutes ago, Enigma said:

I disagree with the grazer comment. 

I'm not sure which part. The point of the comment is that a graze vs a hit is well within the model error due to chaos at this point....a more concerning trend would be all the guidance putting the storm over Bermuda....but a graze vs something 100 miles west is effectively noise at this range.

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1 hour ago, Weatherexpert said:

You can call all the red flags you want but anyone with brains can see that the cfx radar as well as barometric pressure leads to big storm ahead. We take. I own my own barometric system so I am always a step  ahead. Cfx readings  and the state data as well as the American - 293 ensembles!!  Good news for us snow lovers, if you hate the snow then I say go home! Lol :-)

What does everyone think now that the gfs is rolling?  The cyclical data seems to show a good rise, but any other may disagree. My own home barometer shows good news, but it might be too early to tell looking at it. My grandson says it should be good so let's hope 

IMG_0559.PNG

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1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

I'm not sure which part. The point of the comment is that a graze vs a hit is well within the model error due to chaos at this point....a more concerning trend would be all the guidance putting the storm over Bermuda....but a graze vs something 100 miles west is effectively noise at this range.

And that's what I don't agree with. I don't see this as noise. There were substantial changes at h5 which concern me. Point being...evolution of 18z and 00z h5 trough could not be more different. My suspicion is that this could* be the start of a trend towards a Canadian outcome. 

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21 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

What? 2014?

That is the wrong snapshot. I let my grandson Jordan pick out a picture to go along with my post :-) disregard the 2014 snapshot lol!

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42 minutes ago, Enigma said:

And that's what I don't agree with. I don't see this as noise. There were substantial changes at h5 which concern me. Point being...evolution of 18z and 00z h5 trough could not be more different. My suspicion is that this could* be the start of a trend towards a Canadian outcome. 

Hey man if u want to be nervous about it, that's you're choice.  This is still nothing more than "potential." Always has been.  I've never seen a storm being modeled out at 7 or 8 days stay consistent on evolution until zero hour.  

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35 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

Hey man if u want to be nervous about it, that's you're choice.  This is still nothing more than "potential." Always has been.  I've never seen a storm being modeled out at 7 or 8 days stay consistent on evolution until zero hour.  

 

:clap:

 

:snowman:

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1 hour ago, OSUmetstud said:

Hey man if u want to be nervous about it, that's you're choice.  This is still nothing more than "potential." Always has been.  I've never seen a storm being modeled out at 7 or 8 days stay consistent on evolution until zero hour.  

There's a couple I can think of at Day 5, but nothing at 7-8 days.  The two storms that stand out for me in that respect are Feb 1978 and Mar 1993.

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gfs grazed, euro managed to non phase it yet still hang back the trail sw and make that a system, and  then 6z gfs comes back a tad. The proverbial D5 guidance head fake? wtf, I dunno. 

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42 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Runn after run after run . Crushjob coming

Which time period?  It seems a few different potentials are still being discussed.

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8 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

6z gefs are better than 12z gefs which had less phasing from the pv. Long ways to go and with complexity of sw's in the flow, gonna get quite a few mixed signals next 60-72 hrs.

You sir have really stepped up your game-great posts-keep then coming!

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14 minutes ago, weathafella said:

You sir have really stepped up your game-great posts-keep then coming!

Thanks...well than, if we look at the h5 mean one could say it is actually the best it has looked so far up until tue night but then it gets a little progressive after that compared to previous runs. Anyway, micro analyzing 5 days out so fwiw. Just interesting to see if the progressiveness continues today on the OP as it tries to phase or do we go back to the more closed off ideal looks. 

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3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Not a huge fan of the trend in guidance towards less PV phasing, but then again, if it isn't going to phase....may just want to get it the hell out of the way.

Ala 0z euro?

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1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Thanks...well than, if we look at the h5 mean one could say it is actually the best it has looked so far up until tue night but then it gets a little progressive after that compared to previous runs. Anyway, micro analyzing 5 days out so fwiw. Just interesting to see if the progressiveness continues today on the OP as it tries to phase or do we go back to the more closed off looks. 

My guess is we go back and forth but I think a sizable snowstorm is likely for most of the region.   

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9 minutes ago, weathafella said:

My guess is we go back and forth but I think a sizable snowstorm is likely for most of the region.   

It wouldnt shock me if we start trending towards a more delayed hung back trail sw that ends up being the main event on wed/thur. Its almost as if sunday steals that lead south sw from the phase. I believe the other day the eps or gefs had a hard time keying in on a timeframe, interesting. 

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There have been a few comments peppered here and there on the NE forum about things 'trending north' for this Tuesday "potential."

Are we  talking North as in Southern/Central VT or Northern VT?  If anyone here has some input on what things are looking like for the ski slopes I would certainly love to hear it.

Thank you!

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